My colleagues at Cornell simulated various tariff and retaliation scenarios proposed by Trump on China, Canada, Mexico, and the rest of the world, analyzing impacts on trade flows, sectoral output, real GDP, etc. paper link➡️ papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Botception

Inception GIF

ALT: Inception GIF

media.tenor.com

Tobias Werner@tfwerner.com · 2y ago

Just used Gemini Live to participate in a beh. experiment without even reading the instructions or speaking the language. LLMs acting as participants on platforms like Prolific could pollute data meant to study humans. With OpenAI’s operator model, this issue is growing. 🎥👇 youtu.be/NujyGZSA7Hg

Lots of people think Pretty Woman is an unrealistic depiction of the American dream and I'm afraid I must agree.

Pepsi facing an FTC lawsuit shows the impact of big-box retailers like Walmart shaping supplier contracts. My colleague’s @hristakeva.bsky.social research shows that smaller retailers, without this leverage use product selection and supplier replacement threats as tools to negotiate terms.

The FTC's case against PepsiCo highlights how promotional payments can give big-box retailers an unfair advantage. My research shows that side payments are just as important as wholesale price discounts in supplier negotiations. #FTC #EconSky

New paper with @adam-n-smith.bsky.social papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... Our paper develops a new approach for estimating demand nonparametrically while imposing economic constraints and comes with a new package, NPDemand.jl! Some things we do in the paper 1/

Once we acknowledge it, we can make progress toward understanding the role of context, endogenous responses, etc. One of my favorite papers to provide clarity of though in this way is this one.... www.jstor.org/stable/35901...

On the Specification and Estimation of the Production Function for Cognitive Achievement on JSTOR

Petra E. Todd, Kenneth I. Wolpin, On the Specification and Estimation of the Production Function for Cognitive Achievement, The Economic Journal, Vol. 113, No. 485, Features (Feb., 2003), pp. F3-F33

jstor.org

Feeling a bit surreal—just heard that JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley issued equity research notes on our paper with @hristakeva.bsky.social and @leofeler.com This is probably the closest my research will ever come to influencing markets! 📉📈

Jūra Liaukonytė@jurawho.bsky.social · 2y ago

🚨Closing out 2024 with a new paper with @hristakeva.bsky.social and @leofeler.com: How GLP-1 medications like Ozempic are reshaping food demand and changing the rules of the game for the food industry.

Do I know any researchers who have done research on biomarker data in the HRS survey, ideally blood-based biomarkers, e.g. of ageing? If so, very curious about sample size issues, particularly in case of running similar analyses in smaller countries.

Was thrilled to learn that @larsvil.bsky.social has a tutorial on reproducibility! Check it out, #EconSky. larsvilhuber.github.io/tutorial-rep...

🚨Closing out 2024 with a new paper with @hristakeva.bsky.social and @leofeler.com: How GLP-1 medications like Ozempic are reshaping food demand and changing the rules of the game for the food industry.

Here are the first five sets of slides: 01 Introduction: psantanna.com/DiD/01_Intro... 02 Classical 2x2 setup: psantanna.com/DiD/02_two_b... 03 Clustering issues: psantanna.com/DiD/03_Clust... 04 Functional form: psantanna.com/DiD/04_Funct... 05 Covariates: psantanna.com/DiD/05_Covar...

Pedro Sant’Anna@pedrosantanna.bsky.social · 2y ago

I am thinking of making my DiD materials that I used for teaching in the last 5 years available. I am hoping these would find begineers in need of a step-by-step opinionated walkthrough of several developments Let’s see if I find the energy to do this!

While this has happened many times before with automation and productivity gains, it makes me think about the shape of the marginal rate of substitution between labor and leisure—as getting more leisure gets cheaper, we might not actually want all of it, even at the price of zero.

Alex Imas@aleximas.bsky.social · 2y ago

82% became less happy w job, including those who became more productive This highlights inconvenient possibility: productivity gains may be welfare reducing even w/o mass displacement I'm not first to say this, but meaning needs to be more central to research on labor market implications of AI

When it comes to Russia, always listen to the Baltics (and Poles)…

Gabrielius Landsbergis@glandsbergis.bsky.social · 2y ago

The Syrian example shows that Russia can be kicked out and will go home. The Baltics were right – the West is strong enough to win. We don't need to fear "the Bear" in Ukraine or anywhere else he is causing chaos.

Whoa, missed this paper when it originally came out last year. This paper studied 117 salespeople, linking DNA with key performance metrics like revenue, opportunity recognition, and effort. The result? Evidence of a "Sales Gene"! OA paper here: pubsonline.informs.org/doi/epdf/10....

NBER Digital Economics and AI meeting at Stanford. Deadline December 16. www.nber.org/conferences/...

Digital Economics and AI Meeting, Spring 2025

nber.org

What's the latest on correctly implementing staggered diff-in-diff with interaction effects, such as treatment effects interacted with income groups? Asking for a friend... NOT. @instrumenthull.bsky.social @pedrosantanna.bsky.social @jondr44.bsky.social #econsky

Wikipedia 2024 unwrapped: Apparently, we’re all just vibing between existential drama, pop culture escapism and whatever a fifth of the world’s population are up to in cricket.

In honor of #GivingTuesday, my wife & I are matching donations (up to $20K) to the ASFOP Teega Wende Orphanage in 🇧🇫Burkina Faso🇧🇫, which supports over 200 orphans and we have supported for over a decade. US donations accepted here: support.oneworldchildrensfund.org/campaign/asf... 1/2

Just a reminder that @gmcd.bsky.social and @kylefbutts.bsky.social have made an incredible public good describing how to use data.table and fixest to encourage moving from Stata to R! stata2r.github.io

⛷️Ski season is open in Killington! ⛷️ Contemplating the economics of IKON/EPIC pass duopoly pricing and its impact on the distribution of skier welfare. Lot's of trade-offs —demand expansion & variety seeking on one side, congestion on the other. Who is writing an IO paper about this? #econsky

the economics of this is interesting: this paper gives a convincing account of how facebook providing an alternative route to many eyeballs reduces the ad prices traditional publishers can charge (this, of course, hurts the journalists who work there) scholar.harvard.edu/sites/schola...

New paper: Do social media algorithms shape affective polarization? We ran a field experiment on X/Twitter (N=1,256) using LLMs to rerank content in real-time, adjusting exposure to polarizing posts. Result: Algorithmic ranking impacts feelings toward the political outgroup! 🧵⬇️

🚀 Hitting pause on accelerated Moore's law in AI: Small Language Models (SLMs) are gaining traction because they are more efficient, affordable, and can outperform larger models in specific tasks. source: objectbox.io/the-rise-of-... #econsky

Delta's product versioning and market segmentation approach is a masterclass in second-degree price discrimination under capacity constraints. 85% of new seat capacity will be in premium categories, which currently have 15% higher margins.

go.bsky.app/NHpEu1g Is there one already? Please message me to be added

Massive experiment on India’s TikTok-like platform: Replacing personalized algorithms with randomized content reduced hate speech by 27%—but led to a 35% drop in platform usage. Toxic users adapted by sharing hate at higher rates. #econsky

Peter Hull@instrumenthull.bsky.social · 2y ago

Next up: Aarushi Kalra (aarushirita.github.io), experimenter extraordinaire! Aarushi works on development, political economy, and the digital platforms/AI. Her JMP studies a massive RCT run on one of India's largest social media platforms, which shut down the content personalization algorithm(!)

Great advice on how to write better referee reports ⬇️

Kenneth C Wilbur@kennethcwilbur.bsky.social · 2y ago

I just wrote my 100th AE report. My opinionated suggestions to improve your next referee report

What determines the tipping point that triggers a switching cascade? 1️⃣ Network structure+strength of ties 2️⃣ Distributiion of individual thresholds (# of your connected nodes already switched and their centrality) 3️⃣ "Price"+perceived value Looks like #2 and #3 just tipped for me🌀 #Bluesky #Econsky

Let’s try this! First #EconSky post 👍 Norway's (population 5.4m) sovereign fund is similar size to that of China's and owns a staggering 1.5% of the global stock market. H/t chartr