My coauthors and I have released a new report on how the Medicaid provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act could affect Illinois’ budget and Medicaid coverage. Here are our main findings: igpa.uillinois.edu/wp-content/u...
igpa.uillinois.edu
Tatyana Deryugina
@tderyugina.bsky.social
Ukrainian. American. Associate Professor at UofI. Co-editor at AER:I and EEPE. Co-founder of http://econ4ua.org. deryugina.com https://ukraineinsights.substack.com/
Economists for #Ukraine is planning a series of free public policy forums on Ukraine-related issues. If you're interested, please fill out this form. And please spread the word! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Economists for Ukraine Policy Forums
docs.google.com
With Russia ramping up its hybrid war, Europe must accept that deterrence is not alarmism, preparedness is not provocation, and strength is often the precondition for peace, write @tderyugina.bsky.social, @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social, and @ilonasolohub.bsky.social. bit.ly/3Tdb01H
Will Europe Be as Unprepared as Ukraine Was?
Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub say that the main challenge is not merely to spend more, but to change entrenched habits of mind.
bit.ly
New piece with @tderyugina.bsky.social and @ilonasolohub.bsky.social The main message is: Europe in 2025 is #Ukraine in 2014. Not investing in defense, thinking the war is local, letting RUS information space, believing that someone else will protect, trying to make a deal with Putin Big mistakes
Will Europe Be as Unprepared as Ukraine Was?
Tatyana Deryugina, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Ilona Sologoub say that the main challenge is not merely to spend more, but to change entrenched habits of mind.
project-syndicate.org
Forthcoming in the AER: "The Long-run Effect of Air Pollution on Survival" by Julian Reif and Tatyana Deryugina.
The Long-run Effect of Air Pollution on Survival
(Forthcoming Article) - Many environmental hazards have long-run health effects, but quasi-experimental studies typically measure outcomes and treatment over short time periods. We develop a new framework for quantifying the effect of air pollution exposure on life expectancy. Using daily changes in wind direction as an instrument for air pollution, we first charac- terize the dynamic mortality effects of short-run exposure. We then incorporate these estimates into a demographic model to quantify the lifelong effects of a permanent re- duction in air pollution exposure. Ninety percent of the survival benefits accrue after the first fifty years of life.
aeaweb.org
US bombed a wedding celebration in Iran, killing at least four, wounding dozens of others, reports now widely confirm. Town near Hormuz, wedding near a communications tower, no reason to think US targeted the wedding itself. But that’s why the choice to launch each round of bombing is so serious.
Apparently, this is how MAGA stays so strong: holding people hostage. 🙃
"Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's" This might sound like an exaggeration, but it's not. Europe has been quite cowardly in standing up to Russia, and the US is looking more like a Russia ally. @phillipspobrien.bsky.social elaborates. phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-up...
Weekend Update #198: Russia's Allies Are More Helpful Than Ukraine's
Actually, The USA Is Quite A Good Ally For Russia; Ukraine Is Slowly But Steadily Liberating Territory.
phillipspobrien.substack.com
The US "is now fighting this war simply because it has no idea what else to do, and does not have the courage to admit that it has failed." phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/midweek-up...
Midweek Update #24: The USA Is Not A Serious Country
In Strategy And Planning The USA Is A Self-Destructive Mess: Here Is A Short-Term Way To Stop The Bleeding
phillipspobrien.substack.com
Me trying to keep up with Claude's output
Lucy and Ethel in the Chocolate Factory
ALT: Lucy and Ethel in the Chocolate Factory
static.klipy.com
#EconSky: Do you find yourself arguing over the true state of the US economy? Do you wish you had easy access to a bunch of basic stats on hand? And maybe some indication of where the economy is headed? Check out usbarometer.com
US Economy Barometer: Jobs, Prices, Wages & Debt in Simple Graphs
Forecasts of US inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, and wages, plus simple graphs of jobs, prices, housing, pay, and consumer sentiment — updated monthly from official sources.
usbarometer.com
#EconSky: Do you find yourself arguing over the true state of the US economy? Do you wish you had easy access to a bunch of basic stats on hand? And maybe some indication of where the economy is headed? Check out usbarometer.com
US Economy Barometer: Jobs, Prices, Wages & Debt in Simple Graphs
Forecasts of US inflation, unemployment, GDP growth, and wages, plus simple graphs of jobs, prices, housing, pay, and consumer sentiment — updated monthly from official sources.
usbarometer.com
Writing a paper introduction is more art than science, but a good formula gets you most of the way there. Today's blog post: a paragraph-by-paragraph template that is used pretty commonly, plus the mistakes I see most often. 🧵 #EconSky deryugina.com/a-two-for-on...
A two-for-one blog post on writing introductions – Tatyana Deryugina
deryugina.com
Tens of thousands of Kyiv residents routinely spend the night sleeping inside metro stations to hide from Russian bombs. With their kids, their pets, without their comfortable beds. Last night, over 56,000 people spent the night this way. www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/202...
Latest Midweek Update is out. Iran toyed with the USA this week. Trump continues to want out of the war, but Iran escalated. Their strategy seems pretty sophisticated and the end result is looking even worse for the USA. open.substack.com/pub/phillips...
Midweek Update #21: Iran Is Toying With The USA
Plus: Iranian Strategy; How Does This End?
open.substack.com
Writing a paper introduction is more art than science, but a good formula gets you most of the way there. Today's blog post: a paragraph-by-paragraph template that is used pretty commonly, plus the mistakes I see most often. 🧵 #EconSky deryugina.com/a-two-for-on...
A two-for-one blog post on writing introductions – Tatyana Deryugina
deryugina.com
It IS indeed time to crush Putin's war economy. Russia is not as resilient as it looks, and any resilience it has is not so much a show of its strength but of Western hesitance and myopia. time.com/article/2026...
Why It Is Time for the West to Crush Putin’s War Economy
Corporations walked away from Russia in historic numbers. Governments loosened sanctions just as the pressure was working.
time.com
Do you find it really difficult to keep track of the ridiculous amount of wrongdoing by the #Trump administration? Here's a handy reference to keep on hand, organized by type and severity (and updated monthly). ruleoflawfail.com
Undermining the Constitution: The US Administration's Attack on the Rule of Law
ruleoflawfail.com
It IS indeed time to crush Putin's war economy. Russia is not as resilient as it looks, and any resilience it has is not so much a show of its strength but of Western hesitance and myopia. time.com/article/2026...
Why It Is Time for the West to Crush Putin’s War Economy
Corporations walked away from Russia in historic numbers. Governments loosened sanctions just as the pressure was working.
time.com
This video shows the deep impact of war on Ukraine in a fascinating way: some settlements are COVERED with drone fiber optic cables, and birds are now using them to weave nests. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCa2...
The nature of war: Ukraine birds weave nests of fiber optic cable
YouTube video by Reuters
youtube.com
Do you find it really difficult to keep track of the ridiculous amount of wrongdoing by the #Trump administration? Here's a handy reference to keep on hand, organized by type and severity (and updated monthly). ruleoflawfail.com
Undermining the Constitution: The US Administration's Attack on the Rule of Law
ruleoflawfail.com
This video shows the deep impact of war on Ukraine in a fascinating way: some settlements are COVERED with drone fiber optic cables, and birds are now using them to weave nests. www.youtube.com/watch?v=xCa2...
The nature of war: Ukraine birds weave nests of fiber optic cable
YouTube video by Reuters
youtube.com
1/3 New episode of #PolicyImplications with Jacob Kirkegaard. We discuss what Europe has actually built since 2022: the EU has become essential on money, sanctions, coordination, and long-term support for UA. But EU defence future increasingly runs through UA. Link: tinyurl.com/5hfs7u9p
A tool I hope someone creates: Assessment of how much a scholar overclaims in their papers when interpreting empirical results. Seems well within the skill set of AI, e.g., Refine. Useful for non-experts assessing evidence (especially working papers but even peer reviewed). + a deterrence effect.
I have a new policy brief on Russia's wartime economy (with Mariia Dzholos and Oleksii Shpanel-Yukhta. TL;DR: Russia can't sustain this war much longer without imposing substantial hardship on its population. Accompanying op-ed here: voxukraine.org/en/russia-s-...
Russia’s War Economy Is Running Down. Europe Should Press Harder
In mid-July, European leaders will gather for another review of the Union's sanctions against Russia. It is therefore a fitting...
voxukraine.org
Observational evidence can be deeply misleading in health settings. In our study of workplace wellness programs, RCT and observational analyses reached opposite conclusions, despite having access to rich administrative data. www.nytimes.com/2018/08/06/u...
Workplace Wellness Programs Don’t Work Well. Why Some Studies Show Otherwise. (Published 2018)
nytimes.com
Saloni@scientificdiscovery.dev · 3mo agoUnpopular opinion but if you're interested in the effects of a medical product, it's 'RCT or bust' for me. I can see the case for observational analyses when randomization isn't possible, ethical, or the condition is too rare or some other such thing, but there's no such excuse here.
🎧 Today, as RU launched another massive attack on Kyiv, I’m sharing an episode that feels especially timely. Link: tinyurl.com/4fbjbrvs 🎧 Listen as a podcast: 🟢 Spotify: shorturl.at/Ho3jh 🍎 Apple Podcasts: shorturl.at/gOlvb ▶️ YouTube Podcasts: shorturl.at/otJaq #EconSky #PoliSky #EconTwitter
Nice review of John List's new book. Relatedly, for those interested in experimental methods, I'm a big fan of Gerber & Green's Field Experiments book: wwnorton.com/books/978039...
Field Experiments
A brief, authoritative introduction to field experimentation in the social sciences., Field Experiments, Design, Analysis, and Interpretation, Alan S Gerber, Donald P Green, 9780393979954
wwnorton.com
David McKenzie@dmckenzie.bsky.social · 3mo agoIn today's blog, I read through all of @johnlist.bsky.social's new mammoth textbook on experimental economics. I highlight the parts I think will be particularly useful to development economists, including great chapters on ethics, DUAs, ... 1/2 blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...