Katie Marriner
@katiemarriner.bsky.social
Elections Data Visualization Developer @apnews.com and Head of Engineering @fiftyplusone.news Past: Senior Visual Journalist at FiveThirtyEight | Data Journalist and Interactives Developer at MarketWatch https://katiemarriner.com
Good morning poll lovers! Big drop at FiftyPlusOne.news today: our 2026 midterm election forecast is now live! fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
fiftyplusone.news
Dems strongly favored to take the House in our new election forecast. Senate just better than a tossup: Iowa: 41% Dem Texas: 48 Alaska: 51 Ohio: 53 Maine: 68 Michigan: 69 North Carolina: 84 Georgia: 94 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...
Democrats strongly favored to take the House, Senate tilts Democratic in our new election forecast (crosspost)
Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers
gelliottmorris.com
Hey poll lovers! FiftyPlusOne is quickly growing our list of subscribers to our polling data API as the midterms heat up. Want to learn more about what we can offer you? Reach out to schedule a chat with us at AAPOR this week! data -at- fiftyplusone -dot- news
New: We've made some methodology tweaks to our polling averages to ensure they can appropriately respond to Big Shocks in campaigns. More here: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Making polling averages react to campaign events
A dispatch from the Methods Desk
substack.com
helllloooo 👋 Polling average for the Democratic primary for Senate in Illinois is now up on our website: fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate...
New: How are key demographics moving ahead of the 2026 midterms? We model the generic ballot by demographic group, using crosstabs from every 2026 generic ballot poll, to see how the race is shaping up. blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/how-differ...
How different demographic groups are moving on the generic ballot
The Democrats are polling well with all voters, but especially independents and rural ones
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Mississippi is holding statewide elections today, and there’s a special election in Georgia to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene. The AP will have results tonight. See what to watch for and what the key races are.
March 10, 2026 Primary Results: Georgia and Mississippi
Live results for the March 10, 2026 primary elections in Georgia and Mississippi. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP.
apnews.com
Our final polling averages in Texas show a very close race on the Democratic side, and a likely runoff on the Republican side. ICYMI, our analysis of these races, and primary polling in general, from last week: substack.com/home/post/p-...
Just published the first issue of our weekly polling data roundup. Polls show people think AI tools will help them at work, but don't want infrastructure like data centers built near their homes. + why people hate Congress, and new TX primary averages blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/americans-...
Americans want AI for work, but oppose data centers near home
And an update on our polling averages in the Texas Senate race.
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Poll lovers! Big news over at FiftyPlusOne. Today, we're rolling out brand new features AND editorial content. Subscribers will get access to complete tables of polls (not just the 5 most recent polls), as well as weekly polling roundups and articles. Our blog: blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/launches-e...
Announcing new data features and editorial content at FiftyPlusOne
Paying subscribers can now access full interactive data tables and a redesigned website at fiftyplusone.news
blog.fiftyplusone.news
Excited to carry on the Trump Score name with @VoteHub! I gathered Trump's positions on 282 floor votes in 2025 to calculate how often each member of Congress agreed with the president, and dug into what issues and dynamics have dominated floor action in Trump's second term. 🧵
Poll fans! We've been hard at work making aesthetics updates & adding new data downloads to the site. Premium API subscribers can now download daily averages for presidential approval and the House generic ballot, both of which update in real time as we add polls to our database.
FiftyPlusOne - Latest Political Polls and Averages
A comprehensive list of polls and polling averages for elections and politician approval.
fiftyplusone.news
The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data! Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.
The State of American Housing
katiemarriner.com
The State of the American Housing Market has been updated with May data! Inventory rose 31.5% compared to last May. Notably, this is the first month since December 2019 where the number of active listings surpassed 1 million. The median list price remained steady from a year ago at $440,000.
The State of American Housing
katiemarriner.com
Meet Your Mayor 2025 is here! Take @thecity.nyc's quiz on issues and leadership to which candidates are your best match. Quite possibly not who you think. projects.thecity.nyc/meet-your-ma...
Take the Quiz: Meet Your Mayor 2025
Candidates for NYC mayor told us where they stand on issues. Which is the top match for you? Find out before heading to the polls.
projects.thecity.nyc
Good idea. Even in this environment it was shortsighted of ABC to completely shutter 538. www.semafor.com/article/05/1...
538’s former top numbers guy to launch data journalism site
G. Elliott Morris, the data journalist who took over 538 in 2023, is launching Strength In Numbers, a paid Substack.
semafor.com
America's housing market looks different depending on where you live, so I made a tool that tracks home price and inventory trends at the county level. Data from @rdcnews.bsky.social 🔗 katiemarriner.com/the-state-of...
Some news! Today, I launch Strength In Numbers as an independent, data-driven news website devoted to rigorous and transparent political analysis. On Wednesday we'll have our first poll, with a high-quality, non-partisan sponsor. Please share, and join us: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/building-a...
Building a new home for data-driven political journalism
Independent, reader-funded media is the best way to safeguard unbiased, data-driven analysis for the public good. Become a member and support the mission.
gelliottmorris.com
Polls conducted after Trump's new tariffs are just brutal for him: - Net approval rating hits a new low of -4 - Disapproval over 50% for the first time in his second term - Econ approval at -15 - Tariffs underwater by 30 Will be updating this post with more: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/trump-appr...
Live updates: Trump's approval hits new low after "Liberation Day" tariffs
His average economic approval also hits a new low (-13), and his tariffs are underwater by 30 points
gelliottmorris.com
Several big 538 projects have made on the long-list for the 2024 Information is Beautiful awards. A big honor for a small group of journalists. Congrats to the team ❤️ www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase?act...
Showcase
informationisbeautifulawards.com
ABC News has now fully taken down the old 538 website, including all interactive projects since 2014. Aside from erasing history this prevents access to publicly released data, including raw polls, averages, model estimates & story dta. Totally unacceptable for a company (allegedly) doing journalism
Just a reminder that all the data FiveThirtyEight collected—polls, election results, and much more—is available for download (for now) on our GitHub page. github.com/fivethirtyei...
Along with the rest of the staff, I was laid off from 538 today. I am incredibly proud of the work we did there and honored to have learned so much from such talented journalists.
As reported, the entire staff of 538 was laid off this morning. This is a severe blow to political data journalism, and I feel for my colleagues. Readers note: As we were instructed not to publish any new content, all planned updates to polls data and averages are canceled indefinitely. Huge loss :(
It's true. ABC News shuttered 538, and I was laid off today. It was an honor to work with a talented, smart and most importantly, kind, group of journalists; and to build off the groundbreaking work of the those who came before me.
Incredibly sad to report that ABC News is indeed eliminating 538. I count myself incredibly lucky to have worked with such incredibly smart, kind people for 7 years. Thank you all for coming along for the ride.
