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Kelly Hereid

@kellyhereid.bsky.social

Climate scientist, geologist, and catastrophe modeler, Liberty Mutual. Posts on all things hurricane, wildfire, flood, earthquake, tornado. Sassy takes are mine not employer's. 📍Oakland, CA Website: hereidk.strikingly.com

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Kate Mackenzie@katemac.bsky.social · 3h ago

the thing is how it's just mentioned in passing that these rich petrostates are going hard to guarantee their post-oil economic security; like it's hardly worth elaborating upon and yet it's very significant in the context of more, er, 'frontier' petrostates, or indeed oil demand

Kate Mackenzie@katemac.bsky.social · 23h ago

“the small desert state has spread investment, influence and military hardware across Africa with dizzying speed in a bid to harness trade and resources for its post-oil future.”

Todd Woody@toddwoody.bsky.social · 19h ago

New: The US is enduring one of its worst wildfire seasons in years, with blazes scorching millions of acres. It’s part of a global pattern of hot, dry conditions that favor fires becoming more common with climate change. Free link. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Global Wildfire Surge Hits US, Propelled by Rising Temperatures

Blazes in the Western US and Europe point to a global shift: Climate change is making fire weather more extreme and more widespread.

bloomberg.com

Zahra Hirji@zhirji.bsky.social · 2d ago

A group of Democratic senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to rein in prediction market trading on wildfires, expressing concern that individuals could be tempted to commit arson to make their bets pay off New story @bloomberg.com: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Prediction Market Bets on Wildfires Draw Scrutiny From Senators

A group of Democratic senators urged the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to rein in prediction market trading on wildfires, expressing concern that individuals could be tempted to commit arson to...

bloomberg.com

Kate Marvel@drkatemarvel.bsky.social · 2d ago

for personal reasons i dislike how the discourse has swung from "climate scientists are hysterical alarmists" to "climate scientists failed to warn us how bad it would be" without stopping at "thank you, you were right, here's a gift basket"

Leo Hickman@leohickman.carbonbrief.org · 2d ago

I see we've reached the point in this particular summer of extremes where we are now having to BLOW UP rocks in drought-striken rivers to help send water towards gasping nuclear power plants www.theguardian.com/world/live/2...

South-eastern Europe faces heatwave energy crunch as Romania detonates Danube rock to increase water flow – Europe live

Explosives used to move a large rock and let more water flow to cool nuclear power plant

theguardian.com

Daniel Swain@weatherwest.bsky.social · 4d ago

A dangerous wind shift (visible on radar imagery) has just occurred in #Spokane, WA, where major wildfire disaster is currently unfolding. Three separate major fires (circled) near or within city limits have already caused major structure loss & chaotic, expanding evacs. #WAwx

NSF NCAR & UCAR@ncar-ucar.bsky.social · 6d ago

Hurricanes that suddenly intensify are especially dangerous since rapid intensification is notoriously hard to forecast and leaves little time to prepare. But now, NSF NCAR researchers have developed a technique to predict sudden intensification in hurricanes as far as 5 days out.

Robert McNees@mcnees.bsky.social · 6d ago

Geologist Marie Tharp was born #OTD in 1920. She built the first accurate map of the Atlantic Ocean floor, discovering the Mid-Atlantic Ridge that provided evidence for seafloor spreading and plate tectonics. 🧪 👩‍🔬 Image: Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Black and white photo of Marie Tharp adding detail to a large map of the sea floor , which is probably 6ft x 3ft. She is wearing a dark sweater over a white, collared blouse, and holding a pen in her right hand.
Jami Boettcher@jamiboettch.bsky.social · 6d ago

I once toured a home for sale that I discovered was in the FEMA 100 year flood plain. Realtor responded “oh you won’t have to buy flood insurance if you pay cash” 🤦‍♀️

Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · 6d ago

"homes labeled as 'extreme' flood risk experience a 3.3% price discount and stay on the market for a week longer" Sure hope those risk labels have verifiable methodology, considering they "remain pervasive across different FEMA floodplain designations" 🙃 www.nber.org/papers/w35516

How does information disclosure reshape the allocation of environmental risk in the housing market? We quantify the price and distributional impact of the nationwide disclosure of property-level flood risk from First Street on U.S. housing platforms. Using a difference-in-RD design that exploits discrete cutoffs in the disclosed risk categories, we find that homes labeled as "extreme'' flood risk experience a 3.3% price discount and stay on the market for a week longer, relative to those labeled as "severe'' risk. These effects are strongest for coastal properties and remain pervasive across different FEMA floodplain designations. Disclosure also generates significant household resorting: buyers of extreme-risk homes have 5.3% lower income, are more likely to use FHA financing, and are older. Through a discrete choice model, we find that the redistribution of risk to lower-income households is primarily driven by price changes rather than heterogeneous preferences for flood risk.
Kelly Hereid@kellyhereid.bsky.social · 6d ago

Future hurricane rainfall increases... a lot. Especially in Northeast. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... Lin @adamsobel.bsky.social @monahemmati.bsky.social Env Res Clim

Downscaled projections of future tropical cyclone rainfall climatology along the U.S. North Atlantic and Gulf coasts

Downscaled projections of future tropical cyclone rainfall climatology along the U.S. North Atlantic and Gulf coasts, Lin, Yen-Heng, Fosu, Boniface, He, Jie, Lee, Chia-Ying, Camargo, Suzana J, Sobel, Adam H, Hemmati, Mona, Sustiel, Jacqueline, Mandli, Kyle T, Padgett, Jamie E, Patel, Jainish M, Sury, Jonathan J

iopscience.iop.org

Akshat Rathi@akshatrathi.bsky.social · 6d ago

Scientists had warned us. Climate change doesn't just hurt nature, it also hurts capital. You can continue to deny it or ignore acting on it, only if you can afford to pay for the growing damages. 🎁🔗 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Heat Pushes Rhine Toward 36-Year Low in Risk to Energy Supplies

The Rhine River’s water levels risk dropping to an unprecedented low as heat waves grip Europe, creating a bottleneck for the delivery of coal and fuels inland while raising shipping costs.

bloomberg.com

Sang-Ki Lee@sklee621.bsky.social · 2w ago

Both the El Niño cycle & local Atlantic sea surface temperature patterns can drive up the total number of landfalling storms. However, only El Niño controls the percentage of storms that actually hit land because El Niño actively shifts the winds that steer these storms. 🌊🧪 doi.org/10.1029/2026...

Atmospheric and Oceanic Influences on Seasonal Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Landfall Probability

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the percentage of tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall over the Americas and Caribbean The number of named storms, landfalling named storms, a...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Rory Johnston@roryjohnston.bsky.social · last wk.

Spoke with @theatlantic.com about the oil market's ongoing transfixed fascination with what's happening in China. What we know, what we still don't—and may never—know about China's crude import collapse, and what it all means for the future of the oil market. www.theatlantic.com/economy/2026...

The Great Chinese Oil Mystery

America’s greatest rival is single-handedly averting a global energy crisis. No one knows how the country is doing it—or why.

theatlantic.com

CarbonPlan@carbonplan.org · last wk.

We’re hiring a Research Associate to expand our work on climate risk. If you’re passionate about ensuring public access to high-quality climate risk data, and informing just and scientifically-grounded adaptation policy, please apply.

Research Associate - CarbonPlan

CarbonPlan is a nonprofit organization using science and data to accelerate climate action. Our team analyzes the design and implementation of climate programs across the public and private sector, an...

apply.workable.com