Kevin Anderson

@kevinclimate.bsky.social

Professor of Energy & Climate Change at Universities of Manchester & Uppsala. Translating climate science, through carbon budgets, into policy goals & mitigation options. Co-founder https://climateuncensored.com

"As Mayor of Greater Manchester, you oversaw the declaration of a #ClimateEmergency & argued that local government lacked many of the powers necessary to deliver the pace of change demanded by the climate challenge. As Prime Minister, those powers now rest with you"

Kevin Anderson@kevinclimate.bsky.social · last wk.

Open letter to the PM on Rosebank & Jackdaw oil and gas fields, covered in the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/... Full letter here: climateuncensored.com/letter-to-th...

Quote from the letter - the link is in the post.

Exvellent open letter to the PM on #Rosebank and #Jackdaw! "All signatories are members of the Tyndall Centre, based in the School of Engineering at the University of #Manchester, and all played a key role in the #climate research underpinning the GMCA’s 2038 carbon neutrality commitment." Bravo!

Kevin Anderson@kevinclimate.bsky.social · last wk.

Open letter to the PM on Rosebank & Jackdaw oil and gas fields, covered in the Guardian: www.theguardian.com/environment/... Full letter here: climateuncensored.com/letter-to-th...

Quote from the letter - the link is in the post.

Targets like "87% cut in emissions by 2040" are a cool trick countries like the UK employ. To general public, it sounds ambitious because it is close to 100%. In reality, it obscures more than it reveals. And current action is highly insufficient for even 2°C in line with wealthy country obligations

Kevin Anderson@kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Quelle surprise: my comment on the Govt's latest climate commitment (www.gov.uk/government/n... is out of step, at least publicly, with many colleagues: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-react... With expert whitewash on one side & charlatans on the other, an honest climate debate stands no chance.

So ist es. Für eine gute Chance auf unter 2C müssten die Emissionen um 8% pro Jahr sinken, ab sofort. Ein Jahr Verzögerung bedeutet im nächsten Jahr -16% usw... Wäre Wissenschaft noch im Kontakt mit der Realität wäre die Ansage völlig klar: ich will eine bessere Katastrophe. bsky.app/profile/kevi...

Kevin Anderson@kevinclimate.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Attached is my "two penn'orth" on how to relate the 2°C carbon budget to our climate commitments. I take the UNFCCC, Paris, ICJ, etc. commitments at face value, and express my views without fear or favour and regardless of political sensibilities. Always happy to hear what I've got wrong.

4/4 Whether a straight-line or exponential curve, it's clear the mitigation debate&research agenda is detached from the emergency mitigation implied by the UNFCCC/Paris. commitments. We're still arguing over the colour of the deckchairs, let alone moving them; there's ~nothing about changing course.

3/4 The 8% figure (more precisely 7.8%) is a global emissions pathway. If the UK & 'developed country parties' were to honour their CBDR-RC commitments, their reduction rates would need to be higher still. I suggest a minimum of 10% year on year, but even that would be a weak interpretation of CBDR.

2/4 As you note, a 500GtCO₂ global carbon budget can be thought of as a straight-line path from Jan 2027 to zero CO₂ in 2050. That equates to annual CO2 cuts of over 4% in 2027, ~5% by 2030, ~7% by 2035, ~10% by 2040, & ~20% by 2045. Delay the start, & the required reduction rates rapidly escalate.

1/4 For 2°C, I use the paper’s Table S8 budget of 580 GtCO₂ from 2025 (~500 GtCO₂ from 2027). IMO its inclusion of uncertainty in ZEC & higher non-CO₂ emissions better reflects the UNFCCC’s framing of “dangerous” climate change and the precautionary principle than the 690 GtCO₂ value in Table 8.

Attached is my "two penn'orth" on how to relate the 2°C carbon budget to our climate commitments. I take the UNFCCC, Paris, ICJ, etc. commitments at face value, and express my views without fear or favour and regardless of political sensibilities. Always happy to hear what I've got wrong.

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