1/ Predictions of future climate improve over time, but this shouldn't weaken the Paris Agreement. But in several widespread interpretations of "well below 2C", it does. New (short!) paper with @joerirogelj proposes a fix. www.nature.com/articles/s41... 🧵

Future-proofing interpretations of the Paris Agreement’s limit of well below 2 °C - Nature Climate Change

Here the authors show that a common interpretation of the Paris Agreement’s ‘well below 2° C’ target is changing with time, which could lead to higher overall warming. They propose that using median t...

nature.com

🔍🔍 Looking for scenario submissions! 🔍🔍 Have you produced, or are you currently producing scenario data? Then we're looking for your help (in my role as #IPCC AR7 lead author). Link: doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

Friendly reminder: only a few days remain to submit your model output for the next RCMIP round. If you’d like to participate but the deadline is… rapidly approaching, do get in touch. We can likely be flexible and accommodate slightly later submissions.

Alex Romero Prieto@arp-climate.bsky.social · 9mo ago

✨ New preprint out! ✨ Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere 🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...

In a new study, published today in Nature Climate Change, we explore how carbon dioxide removal (CDR) – approaches that take CO2 out of the atmosphere – may affect #biodiversity. 🦎🐌 doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Biodiversity implications of land-intensive carbon dioxide removal - Nature Climate Change

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) plays an important role in decarbonization pathways to meet climate goals, but some methods are land-intensive. Multimodel analysis reveals conflicts between biodiversity ...

doi.org

Public discussion on the RCMIP3 protocol paper has now been opened! Do send us your thoughts if you have any ideas on how we could make the intercomparison better!

Alex Romero Prieto@arp-climate.bsky.social · 9mo ago

✨ New preprint out! ✨ Really happy to share that our manuscript “Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models” is now available as a preprint on EGUsphere 🔗 Preprint: doi.org/10.5194/egus...

🎉 My first publication is out in Geoscientific Model Development! 📝 “Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models” ⭐ Selected as a GMD Highlight Article Link: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

Review of climate simulation by Simple Climate Models

Abstract. Simple Climate Models (SCMs) are a key tool in climate research, enabling the rapid exploration of climate responses beyond the reach of more complex models and aiding in the estimation of f...

doi.org

It is hard to overstate how critical @ncar-ucar.bsky.social is to climate science in the US and around the world. It's the beating heart of our field. Generations of scientists have trained there, and almost everyone I know relies on deep collaborations with NCAR scientists. It's end is unthinkable.

USA TODAY@usatoday.com · 8mo ago

Exclusive: The Trump administration is moving to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, according to a senior White House official, taking aim at one of the world's leading climate research labs.

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models

Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...

egusphere.copernicus.org

The 800-page Second Austrian Climate Report (AAR2) is now more accessible thanks to Wikimedia Austria. Open licensing and a Wikimedian in Residence helped bring key findings to Wikipedia, Commons, and Wikidata, connecting climate science to everyday life. Read more ➡️ w.wiki/FXHt

Just published in PLOS Climate: "Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project" 🔗 journals.plos.org/climate/arti... @wcrp-cmip.org @juliearblaster.bsky.social @baylorfk.bsky.social @tatianailyina.bsky.social

I'm proud to be part of the 2025 #TIME100Climate list of influential leaders. Link to the full list of 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/... Link to my page in the 2025 #TIME100Climate time.com/collections/...

Yann Quilcaille: The 100 Most Influential Climate Leaders of 2025

Find out why Yann Quilcaille is on TIME's 2025 list of the 100 most influential leaders driving business climate action.

time.com

Dutch general elections happened today. First exit poll is here. Dutch elections not easy to cover / explain: so many parties (~15)! Since last year, I'm trying to track the votes by party colour - here's how I grouped it. github.com/jkikstra/ele...

📣 Last days to apply as a Chapter Scientist to support author teams for IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report. The deadline for applications is 18 October 2025. More details: lnkd.in/dGvmmWeC

IPCC@ipcc.bsky.social · 10mo ago

📣 Attention: Early-career researchers from developing countries & countries in transition! Are you interested in becoming a Chapter Scientist and supporting author teams for #IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report? Apply by 18 Oct 2025 🔗 www.ipcc.ch/2025/10/07/c...

🚨 Important paper in Nature: "Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors". www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Systematic attribution of heatwaves to the emissions of carbon majors - Nature

Climate change made 213 historical heatwaves reported over 2000–2023 more likely and more intense, to which each of the 180 carbon majors (fossil fuel and cement producers) substantially contributed.

nature.com

The @ipcc.bsky.social has announced the authors for its Seventh Assessment Report (#AR7). With 3 Coordinating Lead Authors & 10 Lead Authors, IIASA will play a key part in delivering the best available knowledge to guide effective and equitable climate action. 🔗 iiasa.ac.at/news/aug-202...

Honoured to serve as a Lead Author for the IPCC’s Seventh Assessment Report! Chapter 3, WG III. I expect to focus on global mitigation pathways, decent living standards for all, and post-growth approaches. Team looks great! First big meeting in December. All authors: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

This is amongst the most impactful two minutes of broadcasting I’ve ever seen. By Emma Murphy, International Editor, ITV News. #Gaza

🚨Submission deadline ahead🚨 Join us for the world's first global conference at @iiasa.ac.at from Sep 30 to Oct 02. (Extended) abstract deadline is around the corner (July 4). Don't miss it! overshootconference.org/abstract-sub...

Overshoot Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2025

As the world faces the growing risk of exceeding the 1.5°C warming threshold, understanding the risks and responses to climate overshoot across different disciplines has never been more urgent.

iiasa.ac.at

New study out, in which we detect a causal link in reanalysis+observational data from an AMOC SST index to the Southern Amazon rainforest: dry season precipitation increases when the AMOC weakens. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements - IOPscience

Causal pathway from AMOC to Southern Amazon rainforest indicates stabilising interaction between two climate tipping elements, Högner, Annika, Di Capua, Giorgia, Donges, Jonathan F, Donner, Reik V, Feulner, Georg, Wunderling, Nico

doi.org

🌍 New publication – and the final paper of my PhD! Can we end poverty, provide decent living standards (and beyond) for all, and meet climate targets? 📄 Paper (open access): “Closing decent living gaps in energy and emissions scenarios: introducing DESIRE”: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

New IIASA-led research shows that achieving sustainable development and climate targets at the same time is not only possible but necessary. “Eradicating poverty and protecting the planet are not conflicting goals,” says lead author @kikstra.bsky.social. 🔎 iiasa.ac.at/news/may-202...

“We’re not just talking about lifting people out of extreme poverty; we’re looking at futures with high development ambition, ensuring decent living standards as a minimum for everyone worldwide.” @kikstra.bsky.social, @iiasa.ac.at

It’s Possible to End Global Poverty Without Compromising Climate Goals, New Research Shows - EcoWatch

Ensuring that everyone on Earth has a decent standard of living is possible in accordance with reducing emissions quickly and decisively.

ecowatch.com

Read about our new work on 'net zero carbon debt' @carbonbrief.org 👇

Carbon Brief@carbonbrief.org · last yr.

NEW – Guest post: How to apportion ‘net-zero carbon debt’ if global warming overshoots 1.5C | @setupelz.bsky.social @robinlamboll.bsky.social @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social Read here:

What's the fairest way to deal with the (inevitable) overshoot of 1.5°C? New paper led by @setupelz.bsky.social explores the concept of "net zero carbon debt" Here's the VUB press release: press.vub.ac.be/who-is-respo...

Who is responsible for overshooting the 1.5°C climate limit? New study tracks net-zero carbon debt.

What is a fair way forward after the 1.5°C warming limit of the Paris Agreement has been breached? In a new study, an international team...

press.vub.ac.be

Setu@setupelz.bsky.social · last yr.

📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵

With global warming closing in on 1.5C, one aspect is clear: some countries' emissions have exceeded their fair share. To deal with this, we present the concept of carbon debt in a new paper in @pnas.org. Lead author @setupelz.bsky.social explains in a long thread 👇🧵

Setu@setupelz.bsky.social · last yr.

📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵

With 1.5°C being dangerously close, moving the goalpost might seem tempting. In this extremely relevant contribution @setupelz.bsky.social and co-workers @iiasa.ac.at suggest an alternative: Keep the target - and keep the books. Carbon debt for climate integrity 👇👇👇

Setu@setupelz.bsky.social · last yr.

📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵

📢 New paper w/ G. Ganti @robinlamboll.bsky.social L. Grant @cjsmith.be @shonali-p.bsky.social @joerirogelj.bsky.social K. Riahi @wimthiery.bsky.social @gidden.bsky.social We examine a forward-looking measure to guide collective efforts in the era of climate overshoot: net-zero carbon debt. 🧵

OK, seriously, Dr. Kate Calvin is one of the best, most well rounded climate scientists alive. She is the current co-chair of IPCC WGIII AR7, and a fabulous leader. Eliminating her current position as Chief Scientist at NASA is not just a shot in the foot, but an amputation. @ipcc.bsky.social

Science Magazine@science.org · last yr.

Breaking news: NASA announced today it will eliminate its Office of the Chief Scientist, along with offices advising the agency on technology, strategy, and coordinating its diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility efforts. scim.ag/3Ft8Xza

Not a new nature fund just yet, but developing countries get something much bigger, 3 decades in the making: a permanent mechanism for biodiversity finance. Esp significant in today's geopolitical climate that has cast a cloud over cooperation and hopes for more funding for nature and climate.

Aruna Chandrasekhar@arunacsekhar.bsky.social · last yr.

AND IT IS ADOPTED. #COP16 www.cbd.int/doc/c/1680/7...

I have been receiving the sad news about massive NOAA firing. I cannot explain how important NOAA is for science globally. The data and model outputs generated by NOAA globally allow researchers from countries that don’t have the funding or capability to develop those to do their own science. 🌊🧵