When the moon hits a ship That's been left there to drift That's a bad day
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4h agoNASA Administrator Jared Isaacman on rockets crashing into the moon: "It's not a big deal right now. The moon has clearly seen better days."
Ken Schultz
@kschultz.bsky.social
I am professor of political science at Stanford University and an avid nature photographer. All views are my own. More photos at https://kenschultz.smugmug.com
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4h ago
It's almost as if the Pentagon is being run by some disgruntled mid-level officer who was always sure he and his drinking buddies knew more than the generals.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2d agoPENTAGON: Anyone got any ideas? @cnn.com www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/p...
The US military is very, very good at 3-4 things, and none of them is going to bring Iran to the kind of surrender Trump wants. That it has come to crowdsourcing ideas from the military shows what a devastating strategic failure this war already is, not to mention the effect on morale.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2d agoPENTAGON: Anyone got any ideas? @cnn.com www.cnn.com/2026/08/03/p...
Can’t believe that Homer gave his young hero’s trainer a trite name like Mentor and not a cool name like Duncan Idaho.
When you are defeated in the sense of “unable to achieve your goals” but not defeated in the sense of “unable to continue military operations” then you are perpetually “headed for defeat” until you decide to end it. That’s how you get forever wars.
What LLMs can do in science is being undersold or actively ignored by the scientific community My larger concern is that AI does seem to enhance progress and discovery for scientists who already know how to think and do science, but will it simply undermine that core ability for new generations?
NERV IRB Coordinator@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 4d agoThis is what is driving me nuts. So many posters around here keep haw-hawing about R’s in strawberry and clearly have NO idea that these are extremely powerful machines *already* that we have not yet figured out how to utilize fully. If we stopped development today, they’d still be astonishing
One of my empirical-work econ takes is that I think academia should be *more* open to publishing work based on best-we-can-do weak data, as long as there's really no other way to address the question and that work is very clear about what it can and can't actually say.
Let me tell you, having chronicled Pentagon-style war game on attacking Iran nearly 25 yr ago, every single "surprise," "darkening turn," "narrowing option," spreading warfare," "rising casualties," "no easy exit," etc that comes drip-by-drip is EXACTLY why GHWB WJC GWB OBAMA BiDEN did NOT do this
Give in to our demands and we’ll loot your resources is not a message that will induce the adversary to give in to your demands.
Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · last wk.Trump to press on Airforce One: “We are taking billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela. “That will happen with Iran too.”
You can’t message a war into being popular without changing the underlying reality. Good paper on this from Baum and Groeling. www.jstor.org/stable/40930...
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last wk.Sen. John Kennedy: "I support the president in Iran. We all have to do a better job messaging."
Pretty cool how we’re just replaying all our dumbest past foreign policy ideas, isn’t it?
Faytuks Network@faytuksnetwork.bsky.social · 2w agoTrump has told people that he thinks he can break the Iranians’ will through an aggressive bombing campaign - WSJ
Shocked that Trump didn’t give a light-hearted, self-deprecating speech that celebrated a shared commitment to a vigorous free press.
The Smithsonian should put bright “Forbidden History” signs on the displays Trump doesn’t like.
Eileen Clancy 🧿@clancyny.bsky.social · 2w agoTrump Orders Warnings Placed at ‘Inaccurate’ Smithsonian History Museum By Robin Pogrebin and Zachary Small President Trump said the signage at the National Museum of American History would correct what a ... White House report described as “extreme political activism.” @zacharyhsmall.bsky.social
Clausewitz: War is the continuation of politics by other means. Netanyahu: Politics is the continuation of war by any means. Vance: Politics means war against others. Trump: Others mean! War!!
IR 101: The primary reason for trade agreements & all the other international treaties/organizations is not really the <content> of the policies, but rather the reduction in uncertainty <about> & credible commitments <to> the policies.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w ago"It's not really a trade strategy so much as a demonstration that no American commitment is durable past the next mood swing — which is its own kind of cost, distinct from whatever the tariffs themselves do to the price of Canadian whisky." — @lizdye.bsky.social
Hmm, a big shock to drug prices right before the 2028 presidential election? Not sure this is credible.
Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 2w agoGeneric drug manufacturers will have two years to move production to the US or face a 100% import duty from August 2028, President Donald Trump said. That levy would then double a year later, to 200%, in August 2029. More here: bloom.bg/4gQR8e9 📷: Aaron Schwartz/CNP/Bloomberg
Ho Chi Minh: "You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill one of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it."
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w agoTrump: "Every time Iran kills an American Soldier they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military. President DONALD J. TRUMP"
“Compared to what?” is always the essential question when asking about critiques of higher education & universities, whether we’re discussing declining trust, freedom of speech, viewpoint diversity, or any of the other things.
Ryan Enos@ryanenos.bsky.social · 3w agoThis is crucial and often unmentioned. Almost every single diagnosis of declining faith in universities fails to mention that it is runs in parallel to declining faith in almost all American institutions. Any failure to recognize this means it is really flawed or not a serious effort.
Not going to hold my breath.
Kai Ryssdal@kairyssdal.bsky.social · 4w agoThink. About. This. The U.S. Treasury receives the revenue from most of Venezuela’s exports, then disburses it gradually to Venezuela through the country’s private banks…. Mr. Rubio and his team set the conditions on what that money can be spent on, and by whom. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/11/u...
The main detection mechanism is the complete lack of connections to my course readings and lectures (or poor attempts at it).
Tobias Hildebrandt@trhildebrandt.bsky.social · 4w agoThere goes this idea.
One challenge many of these analyses miss is that while Europe can and will contribute more, NATO will no longer have a single leader. Allies could accept US leadership, and US did the role well. Without US leading, there’s no country that can play that role. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/09/w...
Trump’s NATO Summit, and Everyone Else’s
nytimes.com
As much as it would be satisfying for Rutte to lash out at Trump, I am not sure what good it would do, and it could do real harm. The goal for NATO right now should be to hedge while avoiding (or at least delaying) full rupture. The problem isn't Rutte. It's Trump.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4w agoWOW -- Danish reporter *goes there* with Rutte "You sit next to Trump when he talks about conquering Greenland, lashes out at allies like Spain -- things it doesn't seem like the old Mark Rutte would approve of. Does this have any affect on your self-respect when you sit there and say nothing?"
One of the many tragedies of AI in higher education is that students think that they have to cheat and plagiarize because their peers are doing it already. In my (non-representative) sample of undergrads, 50% of them flat-out detest what AI has done to their education
Lakis Polycarpou@lpolycarpou.bsky.social · 4w agoIf you *are* there for knowledge, the incentive structure works heavily against you if it’s possible for everyone else to cheat without consequence. I suspect that most students hate this as much as their professors do.
After a long wait, circuit court rejects Florida’s defense of barring profs at public universities from espousing disfavored ideas in the classroom 1/
Chris Geidner@chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 4w agoBREAKING: Eleventh Circuit, on a 2-1 vote, upholds injunction blocking Florida from enforcing its 2022 Stop WOKE Act in the university context. The majority opinion is from Judge Britt Grant, a Trump appointee: storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us...
Not stopping the game clock during the hydration break is real commitment to the bit.