Magnus Ross

@magnusar.bsky.social

Postdoc at UCL AI Center. Currently work on: forecasting, uncertainty quantification, antimicrobial resistance. Previously: Gaussian processes, physics informed ML, trading power. https://magnusross.github.io

What news editors and politicians think people want: "Just tell them they'll get a tram somewhere in their city if they're nice." What people really want: "SHOW ME THE FULL GPS ROUTE PLAN COMPLETE WITH LINKS TO THE WIKIPEDIA PAGES OF THE DISUSED RAILWAY LINES THAT COULD COME BACK INTO USE."

Cancer Research UK today published a report which highlights changes in cancer survival rates over the last 50 years. Many headlines (like this one from the Guardian) have chosen to report the ‘doubling of cancer survival rates’ since the 1970s. But that's misleading... 1/18

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Big news!! 🚀 Aurora, a foundation model for the Earth system, has been published in @nature.com. A massive congrats to the whole team! Very proud of this achievement, and thrilled to see that it’s finally out there. 😊 www.nature.com/articles/s41...

A foundation model for the Earth system - Nature

Aurora, a new large-scale foundation model trained on more than one million hours of diverse geophysical data, outperforms operational forecasts in predicting air quality, ocean wave dynamics, tropica...

nature.com

it's very odd watching the election news in the UK when Labour still has *years* left on their massive governing majority they can just ignore this stuff and create prosperity and get popular and what's particularly weird is that it's not just commentators it's Labour themselves that don't get it

Stealing from X for clout, but someone bought a staggering 25% of the *entire* open interest of a semiconductor ETF (which is 20% NVDA) in a single OTM put option yesterday and today. $3.7 billion of underlying stock, 8ish delta, $23 mil of premium, so levered 15:1 betting on the NVDA embargo news.

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I just came across this paper from ICLR 2024 which proposes an intricate combination of transformers and diffusion models to generate forecasts with these uncertainty bounds (red box), which are clearly inappropriate and could likely be outperformed by modelling the data as a random walk...

A grid of plots of time series forecasts, the proposed model's forecasts are highlighted by a red box. The uncertainty estimates for the proposed model are constant over the forecast horizon and are poorly calibrated.

13. Third, that because this is a new _social_ technology, its uses involve human relationships mediated through technology. When someone uses ChatGPT to craft a resume, they are engaged via an LLM in a social relationship with all the other humans who wrote the resumes etc in training set ...

1/ Introducing ACE (Amortized Conditioning Engine)! Our new AISTATS 2025 paper presents a transformer framework that unifies tasks from image completion to BayesOpt & simulator-based inference under *one* probabilistic conditioning approach. It's Bayes all the way down!

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