Mark Bell
@marksbell.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Minneota, mostly studying nuclear weapons, international security, and US foreign policy. Opinions mine. www.markbell.org
Congratulations to Professor Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social on receiving the 2026-2028 Social Science Research Grant. Bell will continue his research on extended nuclear deterrence by conducting survey research and engaging with governments and policymakers. cla.umn.edu/polisci/news...
cla.umn.edu
Following the U.S. and Iran agreement, the status of Iran's potential nuclear-weapons program is unclear. Professor Mark Bell @marksbell.bsky.social discusses in @startribune.com article: www.startribune.com/trump-iran-w...
Rash: The U.S. and Iran have an agreement. Now comes the hard part.
Reopening the Strait of Hormuz would be a welcome development, but nuclear-program negotiations await, columnist John Rash writes.
startribune.com
Norwegian PM Støre: "France is now opening up a dialogue with its close allies on how its nuclear weapons can contribute to European security and provide a deterrent against military threats. We will hold further talks with France on how the nuclear initiative can help to achieve this."
Norway and France sign mutual defence agreement
Today, Norway and France have signed a comprehensive defence agreement under which the two countries commit to come to each other’s aid should the need arise. Together with nine other European countri...
regjeringen.no
Norway will participate in France's "forward deterrence" nuclear initiative. Norway will also sign a mutual defense treaty with France, known as the Narvik Agreement. www.tv2.no/nyheter/plan...
«Plan B» tar form: – Et taktskifte i samarbeidet
PARIS (TV 2): Norge vil være med på Frankrikes atomparaply-initiativ i et nytt forsvarssamarbeid.
tv2.no
There is no Nuclear Posture Review; and there's been no strategic case made for this system or any public debate around the need for a new HDBT capability. This is a capability announcement via budget, essentially.
Ankit Panda@nktpnd.bsky.social · 3mo agoNDS-A is a new designation for a nuclear earth penetrator/HDBT, it seems: "[NDS-A] will provide the President with additional nuclear options to defeat [HDBT], ensuring that adversaries cannot place their most valued assets beyond the reach of America’s nuclear forces" www.twz.com/nuclear/new-...
US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz www.ft.com/content/0a66...
US being ‘humiliated’ by Iran, says German Chancellor Friedrich Merz
Atlanticist leader says ill-prepared war is hurting Europe’s largest economy
ft.com
Just in time for your weekend, I have a fresh piece out with @warontherocks.bsky.social on the new 🇫🇷 French nuclear doctrine of “forward deterrence” and why dispersed air operations are a better comparison to it than 🇺🇸 U.S. forward nuclear deployments and nuclear sharing arrangements in 🇪🇺 Europe.
Disperse to Survive: The Logic of French Forward Deterrence
In his long-awaited nuclear deterrence speech, French President Emmanuel Macron laid out his new doctrine of “forward deterrence” (dissuasion avancée) and
warontherocks.com
It is hard to capture what a sweeping strategic defeat the war in Iran has been for the United States. I’m going to thread here some of the posts today that try to capture those effects. Here’s the first:
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 4mo ago$2 million per ship — to cross a Strait that was free six weeks ago. @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/w...
Foreign students *subsidize* domestic students. Without them college will be *more* expensive and there will be *fewer* spots.
Michael Clemens@mclem.org · 4mo agoThe Vice President’s parents-in-law came to the United States as foreign students, at the University of California.
The Iran War has gobbled up a breathtaking amount of U.S. military capability vital for deterring a Chinese attack on Taiwan. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
US Deploys Bulk of Stealthy Long-Range Missile for Iran War
The next steps in the US military campaign against Iran will commit nearly its entire inventory of stealthy JASSM-ER cruise missiles, drawing them from stockpiles devoted to other regions.
bloomberg.com
“Iran is now earning nearly twice as much from oil sales each day as it did before American and Israeli bombs started falling on February 28th.”
How Iran is making a mint from Donald Trump’s war
Iran maintains oil exports of 2.4m-2.8m barrels daily despite war and sanctions, earning twice pre-conflict revenues as Gulf rivals slash output and prices surge.
economist.com
"Your steadfast commitment to our strategic mission, despite the multiple tramplings, maulings, and other encounters we shall henceforth refer to as 'terminal networking opportunities' has not gone unnoticed." www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/a-m...
A Message from Your University President on the Recent Hippopotamus Attacks
Dear Faculty, Staff, Students, and AI Summarization Tools, I want to express my deepest gratitude for your patience as we explore innovative soluti...
mcsweeneys.net
For the alumni association, the tagline is “Leave a tip.”
What on earth
snackerü@snackeru.bsky.social · 5mo agoIt has gone under the radar, but the University of Minnesota has selected a new brand tagline: "Leave a Future" Ummm ... it kind of makes the old "Driven to Discover" tagline look like a work of genius. I've got another tagline to run by them: "Uff da" umarcomm.umn.edu/brand
Here are 10 consequences of the US-Israel attack on Iran - a thread. US soft power is damaged. To launch an attack without clear aims or an exit strategy has upset allies - in Europe, Gulf & Asia - who must bear the economic, political and military consequences. /1
My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...
The Hormuz Minefield
In the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.
foreignaffairs.com
"Top Trump officials acknowledged to lawmakers during recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes." www.cnn.com/2026/03/12/p...
Trump administration underestimated Iran war’s impact on Strait of Hormuz | CNN Politics
The Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to US military strikes while planning the ongoing operation, accord...
cnn.com
'Made in USA' and Department of Defense codes imprinted on weapons fragments used to make American Tomahawks and seen in photos by Iran near bombed school. Latest story w/ @trbrtc.bsky.social and @johnismay.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/w...
Fragments of U.S.-Made Missile Seen in Photos Taken by Iran Near Deadly School Strike
nytimes.com
My latest in @foreignpolicy.com: with a war in the Middle East, the world appears to have missed that North Korea is now officially getting into the space weapons game (with strong incentives to put nukes in space). My analysis: foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/n...
North Korea Is Getting Serious About Space Weapons
The new chapter in defense planning seems like a direct response to Trump’s Golden Dome.
foreignpolicy.com
Local Massachusetts weekly says it's confirmed that the Pentagon was relying on Claude for strike targeting, which is how they came to bomb a girls' school. thisweekinworcester.com/exclusive-ai...
Exclusive: AI Error Likely Led to Iran Girl's School Bombing
Pentagon investigators believe a bombing of a girls' school in Iran on Saturday likely resulted from inaccurate information provided by AI.
thisweekinworcester.com
It sounds like there’s a sort of low-level war going on in Iraq that hasn’t been fully reported An Iraqi friend tells me that Iranian-backed militias are attacking various targets across Iraq, and U.S. and Israeli forces are hitting back. They say this is happening more widely than what‘s reported
Polish sources have the final sentence as "As our own autonomous capabilities grow, we will also strive to prepare Poland in the future for the most autonomous actions *possible* in this matter." In any case, this is proper nuclear hedging talk. www.polskieradio.pl/399/7975/Art...
James Cameron@jjjcameron.bsky.social · 5mo agoTusk: "We are investing heavily in future nuclear power plants, and Poland will not want to be passive when it comes to nuclear security in a military context." "We will cooperate with our allies...as our capabilities increase, we will try to prepare Poland for autonomous action in this matter."
In any normal week this would be a huge story. France moves toward extending a nuclear umbrella over European allies-- a major sign of declining credibility of US extended deterrence. www.defensenews.com/global/europ...
Macron opens door to deploying French nuclear forces to European allies
The plan is a “major evolution” of France’s deterrence posture, the president said in a long-awaited speech at the Île Longue naval base in Brittany.
defensenews.com
Tusk: "We are investing heavily in future nuclear power plants, and Poland will not want to be passive when it comes to nuclear security in a military context." "We will cooperate with our allies...as our capabilities increase, we will try to prepare Poland for autonomous action in this matter."
Poland seeks as much autonomy as possible in terms of nuclear arms, Tusk says
Poland wants to be autonomous in the future when it comes to a nuclear deterrent, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Tuesday, as Europe seeks to build its capabilities independently of the United St...
reuters.com
I'm just reading the speech and I am not sure if US nuclear sharing/foreign nuclear deployments are the right way to think about the dispersal of French strategic air force assets. At least to me, I understand it more as a dispersal concept to increase survivability, like Agile Combat Employment.
Thinking back to my proposal of an Anglo-French nuclear deterrent for Europe that I wrote last March. Macron's scheme is naturally less expansive, but Rome wasn't built in a day and his speech was a big step in the right direction.
Eurodeterrent: A Vision for an Anglo-French Nuclear Force
Recently published Signal discussions in which senior Trump administration officials admit they “hate bailing out” America’s “pathetic” European allies
share.google
French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxiety in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe. New post: panda.substack.com/p/dissuasion...
Interesting from an institutional standpoint: France-UK Nuclear Steering Group was first & could be seen as unique arrangement between Europe's two nuclear powers. France-Germany NSG could create a new dynamic: France as central node of Euro nuclear-consultative mechanisms with UK, Germany, others.
Rafael Loss@rafaelloss.bsky.social · 5mo agoJoint declaration of President Macron and Chancellor Merz on closer Franco-German cooperation in the field of deterrence in response to the evolving threat landscape of 2 March 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/such...
