☀️🌧️ Extreme weather events are increasing 🌀🌤 Our new paper discusses the range of extreme weather attribution methods available and how we should be combining them to improve confidence in our attribution statements with co-authors: @marylouathanase.bsky.social & Shirin Ermis doi.org/10.1002/wea....

The need for multi‐method extreme event attribution

Over the past 20 years, extreme event attribution has developed rapidly, providing a wide range of methods to attribute weather events – from unconditioned probabilistic to strongly conditioned story...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

If you want to learn more about Storylines of Marine Heatwaves, my #OOSC presentation starts today at 16h30 🌊

Marylou Athanase@marylouathanase.bsky.social · last yr.

To celebrate the kick-off of #UNOC3 and #OOSC in Nice, we share a striking, mesmerising perspective on Mediterranean Marine Heatwaves —and their clear amplification by climate change. From @awi.de storyline simulations, visual by @jawijan.bsky.social

To celebrate the kick-off of #UNOC3 and #OOSC in Nice, we share a striking, mesmerising perspective on Mediterranean Marine Heatwaves —and their clear amplification by climate change. From @awi.de storyline simulations, visual by @jawijan.bsky.social

So it begins. Day 1 (of 2) of traveling to #OOSC & #UNOC3 in Nice by train, all the way from Northern Germany 🚝 Looking forward to meet some of you there!

A little belated post to share the latest article by Wenqin Zhuo together with our @awi.de team of "storyliners"! This time investigating cold extremes. Read in @natureportfolio.nature.com: doi.org/10.1038/s416...

Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Storylines reveal contrasting thermodynamic effects of climate change on 2020/21 East Asian cold extremes

doi.org

Our paper on the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 is featured in a spotlight article 🌊 *And* it is now #9 largest score on @altmetric.com of all @jgroceans.bsky.social articles... What a week Read on @eos.org: eos.org/research-spo... W/ @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social and @clnhz.bsky.social

The Uncertain Fate of the Beaufort Gyre - Eos

Climate models produce widely varying predictions for what will happen to this influential ocean current, but most models predict it will weaken or stop.

eos.org

⬆️New research by @marylouathanase.bsky.social & @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social of @awi.de, @clnhz.bsky.social, + colleagues in @jgroceans.bsky.social.

Climate models offer little clarity on how climate change will affect the Beaufort Gyre, an influential current in the Arctic Ocean. Most predict the current will weaken or even stop, but the timing and impacts of this fate remain uncertain. eos.org/research-spo...

The Uncertain Fate of the Beaufort Gyre - Eos

Climate models produce widely varying predictions for what will happen to this influential ocean current, but most models predict it will weaken or stop.

eos.org

C’est l’un des nombreux bouleversements entraînés par la disparition de la banquise : elle change la couleur des océans Arctique et Antarctique. De quoi entraîner des conséquences « considérables » pour certains organismes marins comme les algues et le phytoplancton www.lemonde.fr/planete/arti...

La fonte de la banquise change la couleur des océans Arctique et Antarctique

En l’absence d’une couche de glace à la surface de l’océan, la lumière qui pénètre les eaux n’est plus la même, ce qui influence le type d’algue et de plancton s’y développant. Une étude publiée dans ...

lemonde.fr

Starting at 12:45 at #EGU25 Bring your lunch!

Marylou Athanase@marylouathanase.bsky.social · last yr.

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Coming up soon at #EGU25, come along to chat about event attribution at lunchtime in room 2.43

Marylou Athanase@marylouathanase.bsky.social · last yr.

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Une nouvelle étude intéressante et qui va au-delà des effets d'annonce. Le nombre de papier devient conséquent sur le rôle de la variabilité interne. J’ai pu l’expliquer sur @franceculture.fr merci à @alexandremorales.bsky.social www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

La vague de chaleur qu'a subi l'océan Atlantique en 2023 était-elle prévisible ?

En 2023, l'océan Atlantique a donc connu une vague de chaleur marine exceptionnelle et surprenante. Une équipe de recherche française montre néanmoins que, dans le cadre du réchauffement climatique ac...

radiofrance.fr

Christophe Cassou@cassouman40.bsky.social · last yr.

Régulation sur les émissions d’aérosols soufrés par le transport maritime en vigueur depuis 2020, une nouvelle fois rejetée comme facteur discernable pour expliquer les températures records de 2023-2024. Buzz/influences lobbyistes nuisent aux sciences du climat 1/🧵 acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/...

I will be presenting our results at #EGU25 in a poster on Wednesday. 🌀 So if you'd like to chat about the Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 models, find me there! The poster: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/EGU25-... The paper: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future

CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Marylou Athanase@marylouathanase.bsky.social · last yr.

Our new study is out: The Arctic Beaufort Gyre is projected to weaken or vanish in most CMIP6 models under future climate change. The gyre would thus stop storing freshwater in its centre, with possibly large impacts on the Arctic and beyond. Read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

If you are attending #EGU25 and interested in the attribution of #climate extremes: consider joining our networking session on Friday noon! We will exchange on existing methods, their strengths, and how to compare them: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... W/ @vikkithompson.bsky.social

Are you interested in extreme event attribution and attending #EGU25? Come along to our networking session to discuss the strengths and challenges of different methods. meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... @marylouathanase.bsky.social

Our article is out in @eurogeosciences.bsky.social's GMD journal, on global multi-year kilometre-scale modelling with @ecmwf.bsky.social’s IFS coupled to FESOM2.5 (finer than 5km). See the paper here: doi.org/10.5194/gmd-... This is what we found: (🧵1/n)

Multi-year simulations at kilometre scale with the Integrated Forecasting System coupled to FESOM2.5 and NEMOv3.4

Abstract. We report on the first multi-year kilometre-scale global coupled simulations using ECMWF's Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) coupled to both the NEMO and FESOM ocean–sea ice models, as par...

doi.org

🆕 from PolarRES' @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social & colleagues on the future of the Beaufort Gyre, a major Arctic Ocean current. By accumulating/releasing freshwater, it shapes ocean properties. But most CMIP6 models project it will weaken or vanish, disrupting ocean circulation. 🔗: bit.ly/4cdZo3m

New study led by @marylouathanase.bsky.social and @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social. As #SeaIce thins, the Beaufort Gyre releases its feshwater out of the #Arctic. We don't predict the "Day After Tomorrow" but I'm curious about potential impacts on the #AMOC agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future

CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Fantastic to see this by @marylou_athanase @raphaelkoehler.bsky.social @clnhz.bsky.social et al out - an @PolarRES inspired project started at our very first bootcamp with @clicwcrp.bsky.social #NORP way back in 2022 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024JC021873

Marylou Athanase (@marylou_athanase@mas.to)

0 Posts, 4 Following, 6 Followers · Polar and Climate Scientist, 🇨🇵 national living in 🇩🇪

mas.to

Our new study is out: The Arctic Beaufort Gyre is projected to weaken or vanish in most CMIP6 models under future climate change. The gyre would thus stop storing freshwater in its centre, with possibly large impacts on the Arctic and beyond. Read: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The Arctic Beaufort Gyre in CMIP6 Models: Present and Future

CMIP6 models generally simulate a too strong, large, and northward-extending Beaufort Gyre (BG) during the historical period Among the least unrealistic models, most simulations project a decline...

agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

Planning your #EGU25 travel? If you're interested in extreme event attribution, make sure to stay until Friday to come along to our networking session to discuss the value of multiple methods. @marylouathanase.bsky.social

This is really sad news. NOAA GFDL is one of the world's leading climate modeling centers, home to exceptional scientists. If anyone directly affected needs support, I’m happy to help. www.science.org/content/arti...

NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting

Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions

science.org

This is absolutely devastating. "The University of Maine System, which oversees Maine Sea Grant, said it was notified Friday night that NOAA was terminating a four-year agreement for funding, leaving 20 employees and the Sea Grant’s programming in limbo." www.pressherald.com/2025/03/01/m...

Maine Sea Grant funding terminated as Trump administration makes cuts to NOAA

The move to discontinue the $4.5 million grant program leaves 20 employees and the Sea Grant’s programming in limbo.

pressherald.com

Hi - I'd like to share this story of what is happening at NOAA GFDL, where some of my colleagues and I worked until the mass firings at NOAA last week. "...the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting"

NOAA firings hit the birthplace of weather and climate forecasting

Dismissed researchers were improving severe weather predictions

science.org

Massive piece of work by Laurent Oziel and many #AWI colleagues, conducted within the #COMFORT project: Laurent conducted future 🌊 Arctic Ocean high-resolution simulations that account for climate change AND carbon & nutrient inputs from rivers & coastal erosion. ⬇️ doi.org/10.1038/s415...

Climate change and terrigenous inputs decrease the efficiency of the future Arctic Ocean’s biological carbon pump - Nature Climate Change

Changes in the Arctic could impact the oceanic carbon sequestration of the region. Here the authors consider regional biogeochemistry, including coastal erosion and river inputs, to show a 40% reducti...

doi.org

#EGU25 Call for Abstracts open: Are you working on understanding high-risk climate extremes and their impacts? Then join our session! 🔵 High-impact climate extremes: from physical understanding and storylines to impacts and solutions 🎯Session: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU25/sessio... 🧪

www.noaa.gov/news-release...

Arctic tundra becoming source of carbon dioxide emissions

2024 Arctic Report Card tracks rapid, complex Arctic change

noaa.gov

Comment expliquer les températures extrêmes en 2023, qui se maintiennent encore à des sommets ? Une étude publiée hier pointe la baisse de l'albédo, liée à une diminution des nuages bas. Elle ne clôt toutefois pas ce débat qui divise les chercheurs. Un 🧶 www.lemonde.fr/planete/arti...

Emballement climatique ou variabilité naturelle : les scientifiques s’interrogent face au maintien de températures extrêmes

Une étude, publiée dans « Science », attribue la forte hausse de la température en 2023 au fait que la Terre renverrait moins d’énergie solaire vers l’espace. D’autres scientifiques estiment qu’il s’a...

lemonde.fr

Exploring the Arctic Ocean? Planning to attend EGU25? Submit an abstract to our session:"Changes in the Arctic Ocean, Sea Ice, and Subarctic Sea Systems: Observations, Models, and Perspectives" (t.ly/BvM9l) Spread the word, and you see in Vienna for exciting talks, posters and discussions!

What is the best way to define a baseline for marine heatwave (MHW) research – or extreme events in general? A new study from a wide range of experts highlights that the choice of baseline matters and should be tailored to the specific application. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Baseline matters: Challenges and implications of different marine heatwave baselines

Marine heatwaves (MHWs), prolonged periods of unusually high ocean temperatures, significantly impact global ecosystems. However, there is ongoing deb…

sciencedirect.com