Matthew Cebul

@matthewcebul.bsky.social

Political scientist studying civil resistance, democratic erosion, and US foreign policy in MENA. Lead Research Fellow at HKS Nonviolent Action Lab; formerly USIP. Manservant to Korra the cat. Lives for Alcaraz highlights, epic fantasy, and "draw a card."

Today for @jodemocracy.bsky.social, I lay out the tension between anti-corruption accountability politics (of which I am a huge fan!) and big-tent democracy coalition building. The dilemma: it's hard to convince regime fence sitters to jump ship if they expect punishment under restored democracy.

Journal of Democracy@jodemocracy.bsky.social · 8h ago

Calling for accountability against corrupt officials is a powerful message for building a movement. But it can make it harder to encourage defections from your opponent’s camp. Here’s how to handle the dilemma.

Somebody is eventually going to write a banger dissertation on personal animosity + grudges in IR in the Trump era -- I'd bet that declassified diplomatic comms, personal memoirs, etc. will be full of examples of world leaders finding funny ways to get back at Trump for his ham-fisted bullying

StrangeBrickDroog@strangebrickdroog.bsky.social · 3w ago

Excessive belligerence also causes a fourth problem, and that is it makes your enemy retaliate in a much more insidious manner due to the extreme animosity you generate.

After years of saving it for another day, I just finished @joeabercrombie.com's First Law series. Never has a story so unholy, so thoroughly and viciously miserable, been so perfectly conceived. It's a revolting train wreck that you just gape at for three books, awestruck. What a brilliant writer.

Morocco largely dominated the Netherlands and are a very good team, but France has them in complete lockdown. Essentially zero looks, while France generates offense at will. Beating them this year is going to take something very special.

Dem politicians should have some faith that voters will hear Mamdani's dogged patriotism -- "We're far from perfect, but we're not done, either, and we're sure as hell not going anywhere" -- and identify more with it than anything the nativist GOP has to offer.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last mo.

Mamdani: "As we mark 250 years ... we see the wealthiest country -- one where children go to sleep hungry while the world's first trillionaire hungers for more ... we see masked agents terrorizing our streets, eating food cooked by undocumented neighbors before spiriting them away in unmarked vans"