Matthias Deutsch

@matthiasdeutsch.bsky.social

Programme Lead Technologies & Analysis / Hydrogen Coordination at Agora Industry @agoraind.bsky.social https://www.agora-industry.org/ Views are my own. Retweets are no endorsement.

A first year above 2C in the mid-2030s now looks plausible. 0.5C was first passed in 1980, 1.0C in 2010 and 1.5C in 2024. The 15-year trend runs at 0.42C per decade. The 2026 and 2027 points for the current El Nino are estimates. We're not remotely ready!

Line chart titled "A first year above 2 C in the mid-2030s looks increasingly plausible". It shows global mean surface temperature from 1940 to 2050 as the annual anomaly against the 1850 to 1900 baseline, in degrees C. Data is ERA5 from Copernicus, running to 31 July 2026.

A thin gold line shows individual years, wobbling around a thick dark blue smoothed trend. Both sit near 0.2 C through the 1940s to the early 1970s, then climb steadily from the mid-1970s onward.

Three red dots mark the first year each threshold was passed. 0.5 C in 1980, 1.0 C in 2010 and 1.5 C in 2024. Labels beneath note the gap of 30 years between the first two and 14 years between the second and third. Everything above 1.5 C is shaded pink.

Two dashed lines run forward from 2025. A blue line follows the 15-year trend of 0.42 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2037. A fainter grey line follows the 30-year trend of 0.27 C per decade and reaches 2 C in 2044.

Two orange circles mark estimates for the developing El Niño, at about 1.5 C for 2026 and about 1.7 C for 2027.

Hungarian power generation during the last week - the sequential block-by-block shutdown of the Paks nucler power plant looks wild. Thankfully a lot of solar during the day. During nights, gas generation is ramping up and imports supply the vast majority of demand.

Hungarian power generation curves (stacked) by source, showing the gradual decline of nuclear power generation during the last week, and an increasing power gap to the load curve.
Kees van der Leun@sustainable2050.bsky.social · 3d ago

Record low water level in Danube forced Hungary to shut down its nuclear power plant today, probably for weeks. It normally provides almost half the country's electricity. Companies asked to reduce demand, freight trains limited, civil servants to work from home. www.nieuwsblad.be/buitenland/h...

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

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FoxNews, der wichtigste Sender der MAGA-Crowd, verlegt Ceuta von Nordafrika nach Nordspanien und der US-Vizepräsident verbreitet die FakeNews weiter. Und Millionen Amerikaner·innen glauben die Lüge. (via @chorherr.bsky.social)

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Pedro Sánchez has sent a letter to the EU institutions complaining about the political reaction of some member states to the migratory crisis in Ceuta. “In the current international context, the European Union cannot afford this kind of selfish, polarising and unlawful reaction.” 🧵

📝 LEADERSHIP update: We are pleased to welcome Elrika Hamdi as Director Southeast Asia and Kevin Tu as Chief Advisor China. Drawing on their extensive expertise, we look forward to deepening our engagements in these two key regions that are critical to the global energy transition. 1/x

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Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

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🇨🇳👨‍🔬 Some Chinese petrochemical output indicators to kick off the weekend. Biggest decline in primary plastics (i.e., precursors), actual products far less so, and ethylene bucking the trend higher (naphtha feed displacement via imported ethane?)

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🇸🇪 "intends to ban the chemicals in consumer products, including clothing, shoes,waterproofing agents,kitchenware, cosmetic products and ski wax." "The European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) is expected to provide a second opinion on the socio-economic impact of anti-PFAS measures by the end of this year"

Oliver@oliver48.bsky.social · 6d ago

"‘Major victory’: Sweden plans to ban forever chemicals in everyday products ahead of EU" www.euronews.com/2026/07/24/m...

Really interesting story here. You know how the hyperscaler cowboys are powering their data centers with gas turbines? It turns out the demands of AI are not very friendly to those turbines. They're supposed to last 5+ years & instead they're wearing out in under 12 months!

Harriet Weber@harri.bsky.social · last wk.

Here's the deal with the pre-review study Tesla funded on turbine carnage. This is my first piece on the Data Centers Breaking Things beat. TLDR; AI training is wearing out, even breaking, a critical source of energy for AI training www.investors.com/news/turbine...