Colorado State University just released its final predictions for the 2026 hurricane season. With the climate-change-adjusted El Niño metric at a record for this week, the forecast is no big surprise. Still, we may having something to talk later next week. ⬇️

Colorado State University Experts Release Final Predictions for the 2026 Hurricane Season

Experts continue to forecast a “well below-average” Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, including below-average odds of a major U.S. hurricane landfall

michaelrlowry.substack.com

In today's newsletter I discuss how August activity (or lackthereof) becomes a useful predictor for what lies ahead for the hurricane season in September and October. We're starting off the month with a whole lotta nada but will it end that way? More ⬇️

What August Activity Might Reveal About the Rest of the Hurricane Season

The amount of activity-to-date isn’t a useful predictor for overall hurricane season activity…until August

michaelrlowry.substack.com

August can be a two-faced month for hurricane activity. It's also an inflection point when seasonal activity quickly catches up to the calendar. This August looks to start out goose eggs and probably portends a season more like 2015 and 1997 than 2023. ⬇️

Shaping Up for a Quiet First Half of August Across the Atlantic

Tropical development unlikely for at least the first week or two of August

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Today's newsletter is all about U.S. hurricane landfalls in August – where they form and where they strike. August is typically Texas's big hurricane month while Florida's risk carries into October. Plus what we're following off the southeast next week. ⬇️

August U.S. Hurricanes: Where Do They Form and Where Do They Strike?

Texas hurricane landfalls historically peak in August

michaelrlowry.substack.com

In today's newsletter I highlight new research from NOAA scientists on how hurricane hunter data are improving inland rainfall forecasts for tropical systems. Plus an update on where funding stands for hurricane hunter missions this season and beyond ⬇️

New Research Reveals How Hurricane Hunters Improve Forecasts Before and After Landfall

A new study published earlier this month is the first to examine how hurricane hunters improve forecasts after landfall, including predictions of catastrophic flooding

michaelrlowry.substack.com

It's about as hostile as it gets to open August – the hurricane season's first primetime month – for wannabe storms. All signs point to a dead few weeks ahead, but I'm not bold enough to say it'll be a complete August shutout, even in a year like this. ⬇️

Clues August will Open with a Whisper Across the Atlantic

Major hurdles to development likely mean a sluggish start to the hurricane season’s first primetime month

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Genevieve became only the 21st Category 5 of the satellite era in the eastern Pacific early Monday after strengthening at a clip rarely seen. Thankfully it's on a weakening trend and no threat to land. Meanwhile how about that Caribbean shear?? ⬇️

The Pacific Sizzles as the Atlantic Simmers

Genevieve became the first Category 5 hurricane in almost two years in the eastern Pacific early Monday but poses no threat to land

michaelrlowry.substack.com

My time lapse of the Gironde #fire near Bordeaux, viewed on Friday afternoon from about 20 km distance. One minute compressed into 5 seconds. #GlobalHeating

In today's newsletter, it's back to El Niño and which parts of the Atlantic tend to see the greatest reduction in hurricane activity during historically strong ones like 2026. Not surprisingly, the Gulf and Caribbean tend to benefit the most. More ⬇️

How El Niño Transforms the Typical Pattern of Atlantic Hurricane Activity

Overall activity is usually reduced around coastal areas of the Gulf and Caribbean

michaelrlowry.substack.com

NWS directives require post-event service assessments after major, high impact events - but the agency not done one in 4 years. Recent budget/staffing cuts are part of the issue - but this is symptomatic of a long term degrading of the agency's emphasis on performance & service evaluation.

Alan Gerard@wxmanms1.bsky.social · 2w ago

When I started with NWS in 1990, we had a relatively well-developed - if bureaucratic - process for service evaluation and learning lessons from weather events. Getting that back would be a good 1st step as Congress debates a nat'l disaster safety board. balancedweather.substack.com/p/weather-di...

I was curious how often heat warnings/advisories coincided with tropical storm warnings so reached out to @akrherz.bsky.social. This is the first time since at least 2008 that we've had concurrent tropical storm/heat warnings, but it's happened about a dozen times since 2008 for heat advisories.

Michael Lowry@michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 2w ago

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in New Orleans may have summed up Bertha best today in their forecast discussion: "I for one have never seen a tropical storm warning and a heat advisory/warning for the same time frame in the same area. But here we are." My morning update ⬇️

Bertha's fragile center is riding the Louisana coastline this morning while blistering wind shear shoves its thunderstorms well downstream over the Gulf. It'll make a second stop in Texas today, but the heavy rains over South Texas look manageable. ⬇️

Bertha Breezes through Southern Louisiana, Expected to Reach the Upper Texas Coast Later Today

Locally heavy rains to spread into parts of South Texas today but no major impacts anticipated

michaelrlowry.substack.com

2 PM CDT Update: Tropical Storm #Bertha makes landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, with estimated maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. t.co/tW4KeGdBFb 🔗 hurricanes.gov

What is a "super" El Niño? Hurricane expert @michaelrlowry.bsky.social explains what this is and what it means for storms and hurricane preparedness this summer on Public Health On Call. 🎧 podcast.publichealth.jhu.edu/a-forecast-f...

July 21: Seasonal tally of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has finally surpassed... 1 (!). It is 1.23 as of today. This is the lowest ACE total YTD since 2009 (0.0). That was a season with El Niño conditions in place during the peak months (Aug/Sep/Oct).

Forecasters at the National Weather Service in New Orleans may have summed up Bertha best today in their forecast discussion: "I for one have never seen a tropical storm warning and a heat advisory/warning for the same time frame in the same area. But here we are." My morning update ⬇️

Bertha Skims Across the Northern Gulf Coast with Little Fanfare

An unusual and contradictory mix of tropical storm warnings and extreme heat warnings follow Bertha’s path across the northern Gulf Coast today

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Bertha is a disheveled two-sided storm, with its heaviest rains and tropical storm winds displaced offshore south of its center. It's trying to fight back against the shear this morning, but it's likely too little too late. My Tuesday morning update ⬇️

Bertha Forms, Expected to Remain Weak and Lopsided as It Skirts the Northern Gulf Coast

Bertha’s heaviest rainfall will remain offshore, but locally heavy rains and gusty squalls are possible from the Florida panhandle to coastal Alabama, Mississippi, and southern Louisiana

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Tropical Depression Two is a mess and should stay a mess as it slowly trudges west over the northern Gulf this week. 99.4% of Google DeepMind ensembles keep it below hurricane strength (cue Dumb & Dumber reference), but keep an eye to rainfall trends. ⬇️

Tropical Depression Expected to Become Bertha Today, Locally Heavy Rains to Scrape the Northern Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Watches extend from the Florida panhandle south of Tallahassee to coastal Alabama

michaelrlowry.substack.com

June 2023 pales in comparison to this event. There were ~3 total monitors back then that recorded a 24-hr AQI in the Hazardous category (all in PA). Yesterday there were dozens affecting tens of millions of people

In today's newsletter, I discuss the threat of locally heavy rain along Florida's west coast from a dark horse tropical candidate plus a full update on the GOES-19 weather satellite, which went back online yesterday after a brief but stressful 24 hours. ⬇️

Gulf System to Bring Heavy Rains to Florida's West Coast and Big Bend Starting this Weekend

NOAA recovers GOES-19 satellite Thursday afternoon after brief outage, restoring weather monitoring for the Atlantic

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Wildfire smoke drapes across North America and the North Atlantic. Wow.

UPDATE: NOAA has fixed the issue with GOES-19 and is planning to restart the satellite. My sources tell me it should be back online in the next 4-6 hours --> www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/message...

Michael Lowry@michaelrlowry.bsky.social · 3w ago

In addition to two areas flagged by NHC today, we need to talk about the big outage for our main hurricane tracking satellite, which went offline late yesterday. We don't have any recovery timelines yet, so for now we're relying on flanking satellites. ⬇️

In addition to two areas flagged by NHC today, we need to talk about the big outage for our main hurricane tracking satellite, which went offline late yesterday. We don't have any recovery timelines yet, so for now we're relying on flanking satellites. ⬇️

National Hurricane Center Flagging Two Areas in the Atlantic, Development Unlikely with Either

Meanwhile, the Atlantic’s main weather satellite is offline until further notice

michaelrlowry.substack.com

The National Hurricane Center just added its first area to watch on the Atlantic basin side in over 2 weeks. As we've detailed in newsletters all week, development odds here are low, but it's worth following in the event it overstays its time in the Gulf. More ⬇️

New Area to Watch Over the Northern Gulf for Early Next Week

Development odds are low but we’ll watch for the potential of heavy rain for Florida’s west coast and Big Bend

michaelrlowry.substack.com

After years of highly active hurricane seasons, 2026 may look different due to El Niño patterns in the Pacific. Hurricane specialist @michaelrlowry.bsky.social discusses why this is the case and what it means for storm safety this summer. 🎧 podcast.publichealth.jhu.edu/a-forecast-f...

I enjoyed joining @publichealthpod.bsky.social again this hurricane season for a wide-ranging conversation from El Niño's influence on this hurricane season, to the state of AI hurricane models, to where things stand generally with the proposed federal cuts to science and forecasting. Listen below 🎧

Public Health On Call Podcast@publichealthpod.bsky.social · 3w ago

El Niño activity in the Pacific could mean a quieter Atlantic hurricane season. @michaelrlowry.bsky.social gives an update on the 2026 hurricane season and the promising role of AI in storm forecasting. 🎧 podcast.publichealth.jhu.edu/a-forecast-f...

In today's newsletter I discuss why we pay a little closer attention to the subtropics in hurricane seasons like this one. Plus what are some models picking up in the northern Gulf for early next week? More ⬇️

Why the (Sub)Tropics Matter a Little More this Hurricane Season

Storms forming in the Atlantic’s main development region tend to dominate most hurricane seasons, but this year we’ll be watching a little farther north

michaelrlowry.substack.com

It's now been ten days without a radiosonde launched from the Oakland airport (KOAK) 😩 NWS spokesperson says they're awaiting delivery of "lifting gas" Qatar supplies a third of the world's helium (apnews.com/article/iran...) any weather friends know if this shortage will continue?

Experts at Colorado State University led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach just lowered their predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season for the second time this year. If their forecast pans out, it would be one of the least active seasons in 30 years. More ⬇️

Forecasters Lower Predictions for the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

For the second time this year, experts at Colorado State University revise their hurricane predictions downward, calling for one of the least active hurricane seasons this century

michaelrlowry.substack.com

Wind shear across the bellwether Caribbean is the second highest on record to start July – second only to 2015, another bigtime El Niño year. In today's newsletter I discuss El Niño's earlier-than-usual influence on the Atlantic hurricane season. ⬇️

El Niño's Earlier-Than-Usual Influence on the Atlantic Hurricane Season

Wind shear across the bellwether Caribbean is already making its mark this July

michaelrlowry.substack.com