🧵 While you’re celebrating the 250th anniversary of the American Declaration of Independence this weekend, spare a thought for Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations, which reached the same milestone this year. My @financialtimes.com column. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/6da1...

On America’s 250th, remember your Adam Smith . . .

The ground is fertile for a renewal of the commitment to free markets and free people

ft.com

Many invisible supports of our economic prosperity have been eaten away by this administration. I wonder if people can be made to understand the steep cost of all this random bullshittery?

Michael R Strain@michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

The Commissioner of the BLS was dismissed in August 2025 amid allegations that agency data had been manipulated. The resulting loss of confidence may have reduced US GDP by roughly $20 billion. @nickbloom.bsky.social, E Groshen, D Hobbs, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

I'm proud to be on the board of this terrific project. #econsky #policysky

State of the Nation@stateofthenation.bsky.social · 2mo ago

As America turns 250, how are we really doing? The first state-by-state report card is here. The State of the States is a bipartisan, data-driven progress report examining all 50 states and the District of Columbia across 31 measures. Learn more: stateofnation.org/sots/

🧵In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. #econsky #policysky www.ft.com/content/5ade...

Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt

There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

ft.com

How much value does BLs create? bsky.app/profile/mich...

Michael R Strain@michaelrstrain.bsky.social · 3mo ago

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

How can Trump turn things around on inflation?—Crucially, Trump should also turn his attention away from distractions like building a White House ballroom and renovating the Lincoln Memorial’s reflecting pool and… www.ft.com/content/0a86... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

How can Trump turn things around on inflation?

Most of the culpability rests with the Fed and the Biden government but voters will hold the president accountable

ft.com

We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it - By @michaelrstrain.bsky.social tomorrowsaffairs.com/populists-wr... @projectsyndicate.bsky.social #Tax

Populists wrong to call for targeted taxes on the ultra-wealthy

We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it

tomorrowsaffairs.com

My colleague @kschake.bsky.social: "Without bases in Europe, US power projection becomes much more difficult and costly. Troops stationed overseas are not a gift to allied countries; they are enablers of America’s global military power." www.aei.org/foreign-and-... #policysky

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the BLS budget — @nickbloom.bsky.social @ericagroshen.bsky.social Duncan Hobbs @michaelrstrain.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w35135

The Value of Reliable Statistics

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

nber.org

🧵President Trump has three goals when it comes to the Federal Reserve, including having Kevin Warsh as chairman. But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column: www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/t... #econsky

Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed

Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

project-syndicate.org

Good from @michaelrstrain.bsky.social: remarkable how long it's taken to admit that with the great exception of trade policy, Trump has governed economically like the think tanks that write his legislation. www.ft.com/content/c8c4...

Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity—Trumpism barely works for Trump — most Americans disapprove of his job performance, including on inflation and immigration, the issues crucial… www.ft.com/content/c8c4... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity

Most of the things that make it distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last

ft.com

Ultimately, most things that make Trumpism distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last because they are not a coherent whole that another politician could easily inherit. My @financialtimes.com column: www.ft.com/content/c8c4... #econsky

I had the privilege of organizing economist amicus briefs in support of the parties challenging the administration’s most recent round of worldwide tariffs. The cases are Burlap and Barrel, Inc. v. Trump. and Oregon et al. v. Trump, both before the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Economists have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask: How much productivity growth should society desire? My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column. www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/a... #econsky

How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want?

Michael R. Strain argues that the benefits of substantial gains would outweigh the costs in advanced economies.

project-syndicate.org

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology- What should the Fed do? On the one hand, increasing interest rates in a weakening economy could be damaging. At the same time, it is imperative — after… www.ft.com/content/b9fd... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology

Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

ft.com

1/ The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. My @financialtimes.com column. www.ft.com/content/b9fd... #econsky

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology

Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

ft.com

1/ With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes & more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians must speak up. My @projectsyndicate.bsky.social column www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/c... #econsky

Christians vs. America’s Taliban

Michael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

project-syndicate.org

Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. Even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year. My FT column: www.ft.com/content/2422... #econsky

Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong

The conventional view has struggled to contend with robust economic growth

ft.com

Rich democracies are doing better than ever across many broad measures. While there are genuine concerns about democratic capitalism, it is hardly an obstacle to human flourishing, argues @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/49RnEcn

Is Affluence a Barrier to Living Well?

Michael R. Strain thinks the struggle for subsistence and the struggle to flourish occurs simultaneously.

bit.ly

In the latest FT Swamp Notes newsletter (and before the seizure of Maduro), I asked @constelz.bsky.social, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social, @sohrabahmari.bsky.social, Lauren Fedor and Rebecca Katz to offer some guidance to the year ahead in US politics as.ft.com/r/faed7e98-5...

The year ahead in US politics

[FREE TO READ] Friends of the Swamp look forward to what is likely to be a pivotal period, culminating in November’s midterm elections

as.ft.com

🧵 The rot on America’s political right runs deep. Perhaps because of their growing numbers and influence, some on the right apparently seem to believe that the political success of the Republican party requires playing footsie with racists, bigots and antisemites. What are conservatives to do?

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun-The writer is director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. www.ft.com/content/9adf... @michaelrstrain.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

The battle for the right’s post-Trump future has begun

Conservatism is a big tent, but there should be no room in it for those who deny the dignity of all human beings

ft.com

🧵We live in a populist age. Widespread discontent has swept unlikely politicians to the top of both political parties, and those politicians are pursuing unorthodox policies to respond to the concerns of the American people, with a particular focus on workers. #econsky

@michaelrstrain.bsky.social and I recently published a narrower paper using CPS data to understand the role of minimum wages in shaping wage gains over 12-month intervals (reflecting the limits of what one can do in CPS data): onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The centenary of Margaret Thatcher's birth received remarkably little attention, offering yet another reminder of how far the right has strayed, @michaelrstrain.bsky.social writes. bit.ly/47YR2ej

Can the American Right Find Its Way Back?

Michael R. Strain hopes the Republican Party can rediscover the dignity, decorum, and seriousness that once defined it.

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How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

The cost of health care is one of the biggest problems facing the US government. But extending the expiring subsidies will make health care more expensive, not less, observes @michaelrstrain.bsky.social. bit.ly/3JdNBrU

The Problem with America’s Health-Care Subsidies

Michael R. Strain thinks the enhanced measures – a temporary salve enacted during the pandemic – should be allowed to expire.

bit.ly