Tessera
Folgen

Mike Habegger

@mikehabegger.com

Ph.D. Political Scientist. College of Liberal Arts, Louisiana Tech University. Social media, democracy, IR&Comp, and global security scholar. #EverLoyalBe Views my own.

616 Posts972 Follower534 Folgt
James@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social · 5h ago

Oh okay. So Trump wins a plurality and it's a complete sea-change in American life that requires every media outlet, educational institution, and corporation to alter their entire identities. But Dems sweep an election with the largest margin since Watergate and there's no mandate to do anything.

Washington Post Opinions@postopinions.bsky.social · yesterday

"If Democrats lurch far left on policy, the voters who gave them an enormous victory on Tuesday will probably be strongly tempted to switch back to the GOP or stay home in future elections." Read more from the Editorial Board: https://wapo.st/4z0x1j8

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · yesterday

🧵: I think gerrymandering cost Texas Dems roughly 10 House seats despite the GOP losing 6 intended seats and nearly several more. Texas’ geography would be awful for them without gerrymandering. Suburban Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston would have been a bloodbath like in the statewide races

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 3d ago

THIS. Gerrymandering blocked Dems from gaining unified control over state government in GA, NC, TX, and maybe OH. Nearly 1 in 5 Americans live in those states. Many House races remain uncalled, but my very prelimiary estimate is gerrymandering cost Dems 2 dozen seats—only NC’s map fully fell apart

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 3d ago

NEW: Democrats have gained control over enough state governments to pass the National Popular Vote Compact and give it a majority of at least 283 electoral votes—13 more than it needs to activate by 2028. My story below explains the path forward for eventually electing the president by popular vote

Map titled “Projected Partisan Control Over State Governments After 2027” from The Downballot. Each state is sized by its 2020 census population and colored by which party controls its government. Full control means the party holds the governorship and legislative majorities. States with divided government where one party holds veto-proof majorities are shown with stripes, since that party has effective control. Population percentages are calculated using 2025 state population estimates. Proportion of population by category: Fully Democratic: 52% Arizona: 2.2% California: 11.5% Colorado: 1.8% Connecticut: 1.1% Delaware: 0.3% Hawaii: 0.4% Illinois: 3.7% Maine: 0.4% Maryland: 1.8% Massachusetts: 2.1% Michigan: 3.0% Minnesota: 1.7% Nevada: 1.0% New Jersey: 2.8% New Mexico: 0.6% New York: 5.9% Oregon: 1.3% Pennsylvania: 3.8% Rhode Island: 0.3% Virginia: 2.6% Washington: 2.3% Wisconsin: 1.8% Democratic veto-proof majorities with Republican governor: 0.2% Vermont: 0.2% Divided Government: 22% Alaska: 0.2% Georgia: 3.3% Iowa: 0.9% Kansas: 0.9% New Hampshire: 0.4% North Carolina: 3.3% Ohio: 3.5% Texas: 9.3% Republican veto-proof majorities with Democratic governor: 1% Kentucky: 1.4% Fully Republican: 24% Alabama: 1.5% Arkansas: 0.9% Florida: 6.9% Idaho: 0.6% Indiana: 2.0% Louisiana: 1.4% Mississippi: 0.9% Missouri: 1.8% Montana: 0.3% Nebraska: 0.6% North Dakota: 0.2% Oklahoma: 1.2% South Carolina: 1.6% South Dakota: 0.3% Tennessee: 2.1% Utah: 1.0% West Virginia: 0.5% Wyoming: 0.2%
Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 4d ago

NEW: The 2026 elections could lead to enough states passing the National Popular Vote Compact for the Electoral College to activate it by 2028. Dems have already passed it everywhere they can—adding a few more states could give it a majority of electoral votes www.the-downballot.com/p/how-tuesda...

Map titled "Hypothetical Path to Activating the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact," with the subtitle "How the compact could obtain a majority of Electoral College votes by 2028." It is a stylized map of the United States in which each state is labeled with its number of electoral votes. States are shaded in three colors: green for current members, yellow for states possible by 2028, and gray for states unlikely to join. A note on the map says the compact would take effect once states with at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes join. Current members and the states possible by 2028 together hold 290 electoral votes. Current members (222 electoral votes): California: 54 Colorado: 10 Connecticut: 7 Delaware: 3 District of Columbia: 3 Hawaii: 4 Illinois: 19 Maine: 4 Maryland: 10 Massachusetts: 11 Minnesota: 10 New Jersey: 14 New Mexico: 5 New York: 28 Oregon: 8 Rhode Island: 4 Vermont: 3 Virginia: 13 Washington: 12 Possible new members by 2028 (68 electoral votes): Alaska: 3 Arizona: 11 Michigan: 15 Nevada: 6 New Hampshire: 4 Pennsylvania: 19 Wisconsin: 10 States unlikely to join (248 electoral votes): Alabama: 9 Arkansas: 6 Florida: 30 Georgia: 16 Idaho: 4 Indiana: 11 Iowa: 6 Kansas: 6 Kentucky: 8 Louisiana: 8 Mississippi: 6 Missouri: 10 Montana: 4 Nebraska: 5 North Carolina: 16 North Dakota: 3 Ohio: 17 Oklahoma: 7 South Carolina: 9 South Dakota: 3 Tennessee: 11 Texas: 40 Utah: 6 West Virginia: 4 Wyoming: 3 Footer: "States are sized and labeled based on their total electoral votes. Files available at https://the-db.co/data." Source: The Downballot.
Mike Habegger@mikehabegger.com · 3d ago

Regardless of what happens the rest of the night, which I will probably stay up for, relative to what has happened around the world recently and throughout history in similar situations, this is an historic result for American democracy in the face of authoritarian central governance.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 3d ago

HOLY SHIT: North Carolina Democrats just overcame gerrymandering and flipped the state House, ending 16 years of Republican legislative dominance. This has enormous implications for gerrymandering and voting rights

The States Project@statesprojectus.bsky.social · 3d ago

VICTORY: The North Carolina House has flipped for the first time in 16 years! Congratulations to the lawmakers in this new majority who will head to Raleigh to continue their work to improve the lives of all North Carolinians!