Petteri Arola

@parola.bsky.social

Making music, cybering with security and living longer to rock out even harder.

Except there's no deal on offer If Europeans give up Greenland, Trump & Co will still abandon Ukraine Time to stand up to Trump, commit more € and weapons to Ukraine, & look into closing all US bases in Europe

For the past year, Europeans have grudgingly endured the pains of Trump's foreign policy for the sake of guaranteeing America's engagement in Ukraine. Now the White House presents Europeans with an impossible choice: give up Greenland or give up Ukraine.

Jorge Liboreiro@jorgeliboreiro.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now making an explicit link between the US desire to annex Greenland and the continuation of US support for Ukraine. "What would happen in Ukraine if the US pulled its support out? The whole thing would collapse," Bessent told Meet The Press.

Trump's Greenland threats undermine his own efforts to secure a peace deal in Ukraine. Any US security guarantee included in such a deal would be hard to take seriously if he is willing to ignore the security guarantee the US already has with Denmark.

Erikoista vähättelyä ja toiveajattelua. Ajatteleeko Stubb todella että sääntöpohjainen maailma palaa? Vai onko tämä vain kansalaisten rauhoittelua? Voimapolitiikka on nykyinen realismi. Säännöt ei enää päde. Tai pätevät vain jos ne on oman edun mukaisia. www.hs.fi/politiikka/a...

Venezuela | Stubb muistutti, että kansainvälisiä sääntöjä on rikottu ennenkin – Tutkija ihmettelee puhetapaa

Kansainvälisen politiikan asiantuntija Hanna Ojanen näkee presidentti Stubbin puheen kansainvälisten sääntöjen rikkomisesta strategisena viestintänä.

hs.fi

Europe needs a hard pivot. I want to see these moves: 1. Weaponize EU market as a blunt, low threshold, instrument 2. Independent EU military satellite network for real time targeting 3. Baltic sea lockdown. Not insured = not allowed 4. De-recognize Russian patents

It's not that NATO will collapse if the US invades Greenland; NATO is already dead. The Trump admin could not have been clearer about that over the last year. They refer to NATO as if they're not part of it. They've been threatening at least 1 NATO ally since they took office.

Bild

During Fiona Hill's testimony to Congress on Oct 14, 2019, she described how Trump and Putin discussed exchanging Ukraine for Venezuela. The quid pro quo was if Trump refuses to help Ukraine fight off a Russian invasion, Putin would not help Venezuela (a Russian ally) resist a US takeover.

Bild

If Europe remains a ”rules-based observer”, it will be carved up. Europe have courage to make real decisions: 1.Independent nuclear umbrella 2.Ukraine no-fly zone 3.Post-NATO architecture 4.End the Veto 5.Massive defense bond 6.Economic retaliation: weaponize the single market 7.Supply sovereignty

The European Union has triggered Article 122 to indefinitely immobilise the assets of the Russian Central Bank, worth a whopping €210 billion. I explain what just happened and why this is such a big deal for Europeans. 🧵 Long thread.

Bild

NATO needs to show Russia that sending drones over Poland was a grave mistake. One reasonable response is: immediate announcement of a no-fly-zone over Western Ukraine in order to protect NATO airspace.

Groundhog day. Trump's cycle: hear Ru demands, try to impose them on Ukraine, blame Ukraine viciously, scold Ru softly, then threaten to walk away. He should do it already--end the useless Ru coddling he calls diplomacy and, if he's not going to help Ukraine, just walk away.

Bild

People just don’t get it. If trump was really angry at Putin and wanted to sanction Russia, he could do that right now. He has that power. Yet time and again he delays, and says he will do it in “weeks”. The only rational conclusion is that he doesn’t want to sanction Putin.

Trump's Cybersecurity EO eliminates from Biden's last Cybersecurity EO: Mandatory, machine-readable attestations & SBOMs from every federal software supplier A CISA-run Repository for SW Attestations & Artifacts and program that randomly validates those filings & publicly names vendors that fail.

⚡️ 'Enemy bombers are burning en masse' — Ukraine's SBU drones hit 'more than 40' Russian aircraft. "Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," a source told the Kyiv Independent.

'Enemy bombers are burning en masse' — Ukraine's SBU drones hit 'more than 40' Russian aircraft

"Currently, more than 40 aircraft are known to have been hit, including the A-50, Tu-95 and Tu-22 M3," a source told the Kyiv Independent.

kyivindependent.com

Erinomaista pohdintaa. Mielestäni kaikki seuraavat ovat mahdollisia: - USA poistaa Venäjä pakotteet - USA pyrkii estämään Eurooppaa toimittamasta aseapua Ukrainaan - USA painostaa/kiristää Eurooppaa luopumaan Venäjä pakotteista - USA antaa suoraa tiedustelutietoa ym. apua Venäjälle Ukrainaa vastaan

Vvesavihriala.bsky.social@vesavihriala.bsky.social · last yr.

Tekisi jo mieli lopettaa Trumpin toiminnan ja sen seurausten miettiminen. En kuitenkaan pysty, kun seuraukset ovat niin merkityksellisiä meillekin Euroopassa ja Suomessa. Tässä siis joitain ajatuksia aiemman pähkäilyn jatkoksi. www.vesavihriala.fi/2025/02/euro...

U.S. withdraws support, as predicted. Next: Trump will pressure Europe If Ukraine refuses to ”make peace” on Putin’s terms. It’s important to understand what ”switching sides” practically means. Trump does not want to accept anything that isn’t what Putin wants. In his mind Russia must win.

Petteri Arola@parola.bsky.social · last yr.

The U.S. has switched sides. Europe must plan accordingly. Likely scenario: U.S. withdraws all support for Ukraine -> Europe scrambles to fill the gap -> If Russia starts to struggle, U.S. pressures Europe to stop helping Ukraine and drops all sanctions against Russia or even give direct support