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Paul Johnson

@paulrjohnson.net

Data Scientist interested in causal inference, machine learning, and statistics | He/Him Website: https://paulrjohnson.net Github: https://github.com/paulj1989

1015 Posts1774 Follower864 Folgt
Julia M. Rohrer@dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 7d ago

New blog post! Odds ratios are...a bit weird. Here I explain two problems (interpretation, non-collapsibility) and provide some simple recommendations for improved reporting. www.the100.ci/2026/07/30/r...

Reviewer notes: Odds ratios are really odd

When psychological researchers investigate binary outcomes, they routinely report odds ratios to quantify the strength of an effect or an association. This is quite understandable given that psycholog...

the100.ci

Elizabeth Taylor@elizabethtaylor47.bsky.social · 3w ago

I have a real problem with this piece. I would never celebrate someone’s death much less their murder, but for me what you do says more about who you are then if you’re ’straightforward’. If you’re a bigot who hurts people, you are hideous, no matter what sparkling wit you bring to a dinner party

I got to know Ann Widdecombe reasonably well in the late gos, when she was a media-savvy Tory grassroots darling and I a novice political reporter still confounded by the discovery that some MPs whose beliefs I shared turned out to be hideous human beings, and vice versa. Widdecombe was in the latter category. I couldn't have agreed less with her on abortion rights, Europe, gay rights or modern feminism. But she was also unusually straightforward: she didn't lie or dissemble, though she could gossip and plot with the best, or hide her ambition. She relished an argument but when she lost them - and perhaps it's easier for me to acknowledge her good qualities because she did lose almost every battle against progressives, over everything from gay marriage to restricting IVF to attempts to get more women into politics - she accepted the democratic outcome.
The Guardian@theguardian.com · 3w ago

Ann Widdecombe’s death should make Britain ask itself: what sort of political culture do we want? | Gaby Hinsliff

Paul Johnson@paulrjohnson.net · 3w ago

So the BBC is debating whether the words political opponents use to describe Farage and Reform are putting them in danger... But not whether their rhetoric has contributed at all? Cool, cool, cool.

Kevin Elliott@kjephd.bsky.social · last mo.

Parties exist partly to vet candidates & vouch for them so voters don't pick someone bad out of ignorance. Primaries short-circuit this function since primary electorates can no more do this vetting than can general election ones.

Andy Craig@andycraig.bsky.social · last mo.

*taps sign* The government running party primary elections instead of letting parties pick their own nominees in the manner of their choosing is a weird American thing that eviscerates the fundamental purpose of political parties and it's bad, actually.

Jack Bailey@jack-bailey.co.uk · last mo.

I have a new paper on the Gallagher index: the most common measure of electoral disproportionality. We often assume it runs from 0 (perfect 𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺) to 1 (perfect 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘳𝘰𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺). But I show that in most party systems, 1 is not a possible value. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

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Paul Johnson@paulrjohnson.net · last mo.

New PMs call elections when they come in to try and capitalise on a potential bump in popularity. That's a risky game if you've already got a majority, and it would be insane given Labour's majority and current polling. New manager bounce is not that strong!

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · last mo.

So unwritten that of the five prime ministers to inherit a majority in “mid-term”, only one of them called an election before its due date. Why are some political journalists so uninterested in history?

Grace Robertson 🏳️‍⚧️@graceonfootball.com · last mo.

starmer era felt like all the analytics nerds saying "this is so dumb" while the sporting director kept leaking to supportive journalists that he was a data genius for signing players who overperformed their xG and made lots of tackles.

Grace Robertson 🏳️‍⚧️@graceonfootball.com · last mo.

and the story with starmer (which may or may not be applicable elsewhere) is less "polling-driven" than our old favourite: bad use of analytics.

Michael Caley@michaelcaley.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I think it's a legitimate question whether fixing offside is better than playing four quarters is bad. But of course you could just fix offside and not play four quarters, so you know, swings and roundabouts but I am *loving* how much less refchat there is at this World Cup thanks to technology

@nmwass5.bsky.social · 2mo ago

@michaelcaley.bsky.social Watching the highlights of COL-UZB (the awesome first goal from Muñoz) and I think I have come to the anti-CW conclusion that automated offside and the fresher legs from mid-half breaks has done more to improve the games than the hydration breaks have done to lessen it.

Dave Andress@davidandress.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Brianna Ghey found safety online. She found acceptance and support, and reasons to go on living. She was murdered by her actual classmates, who hated her for existing in her own body. Anything else is a lie.

Mark Grimshaw@markgrimshawtism.bsky.social · 2mo ago

At this point, I genuinely believe the entire public is being actively gaslit by both the media, and Esther Ghey herself, into forgetting that Brianna Ghey was murdered, by people she knew from school, in real life, who were partly influenced by transphobia, fuelled by the media and politicians.