Updated numbers here: Burnham bounce still basically entirely coming from clawing back voters Labour had lost to Greens, Lib Dems and Plaid/SNP. In addition, Burnham now winning 10% of Green 2024 voters - double that from June.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · last wk.

Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).

If you want to read more on these progressive defectors (why they are neither as radical not unreasonable as people thought) and how Lab might marry them with their right-leaning equivalents, @persuasionuk.bsky.social did a report with 38 Degrees back in Spring: persuasionuk.org/research/rev...

Revolt on the left

Who are the voters leaving Labour for other left parties and what influences them?

persuasionuk.org

Where is the 'Burnham bounce' coming from? So far, it's largely Labour 2024 voters returning to Labour - mostly those 'progressive defectors' who had previously switched to the Greens. Based on 5 polls with headline VI since 20th July (MiC, Delta, YG, Survation).

Weird thing is most testing will show you that one of the most vote losing positions Labour could adopt is explicit anti-Net Zero signalling. This is because climate still disproportionately matters to Lab/Green voters while Lab/Reform voters don’t care either way...

Arieh Kovler@ariehkovler.com · 3w ago

It's kind of weird how watering down Net Zero has become a political litmus test in Labour. Net Zero was in the last TORY manifesto!

Last month, @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on what messages have cut through against Reform featured in @samfr.bsky.social's substack. The td;lr is that being seen as personally enriching, or generally not on the side of ordinary people, hurts the brand.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New post out: "How to beat Reform" Using exclusive polling I look at what attack lines work best on Reform, which of their voters are most likely to defect, and the potential for tactical voting. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

Without a change of strategy, living standards will be worse by the end of this parliament. But the government could act to bring down the prices families are struggling with. This would create savings for people and, as polling today from @persuasionuk.bsky.social shows, be very popular

Really pleased that @persuasionuk.bsky.social's work on the strengths and weaknesses of the Reform brand features in @samfr.bsky.social's substack today.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New post out: "How to beat Reform" Using exclusive polling I look at what attack lines work best on Reform, which of their voters are most likely to defect, and the potential for tactical voting. (£/free trial) open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/h...

Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in @cityam.bsky.social, talking about baselines for assessing Makerfield: "As strange as it sounds, Labour have no right to even be competitive in this seat; they should be 20-odd points behind based on national polling". www.cityam.com/what-should-...

What should we make of Makerfield?

Much analysis of the Makerfield by-election focuses on what it means for Keir Starmer and the Labour party's national fortunes - but how should we assess it on its own terms?

cityam.com

"One of the saddest graphs that faces this government is that all of the things people hate they know a lot about, and all of the things they like they haven't heard of." Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social at Progress conference this afternoon talking about Labour's renters' rights offer:

🚨 New pod: Starmer on the brink 🚨 I was joined by Labour MP @joshfg.bsky.social and @steveakehurst.bsky.social from @persuasionuk.bsky.social as well as top colleague @siennarodgers.bsky.social and Ryan Wain from the TBI to look at how Labour got here, how it might recover, and with who as PM

The Rundown by PoliticsHome: Starmer on the brink after May 7 mauling

NB: This episode was recorded *before* Wes Streeting resigned and Josh Simons stood aside for Andy BurnhamAfter crushing defeats across the UK last week for Keir Starmer, dozens of Labour MPs have ...

pod.fo

NEW: What exactly happened in the local and devolved elections in England, Scotland and Wales last week? @persuasionuk.bsky.social has some new polling out today which offers a first glimpse. Thread here on top line findings from each nation. 🧵

Much discussion post locals is on who Labour’s leader should be. For @newstatesman1913.bsky.social, I’ve asked who the party’s coalition should be: www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-...

Labour is ignoring its actual supporters

The party has an intensely sentimental view of itself at odds with its real base

newstatesman.com

"Councillors gained is an OK metric, but it's not perfect for lots of different reasons... one of the best things you can do is wait for the projected national vote share". @steveakehurst.bsky.social on @hugorifkind.bsky.social's programme this morning talking about how to read the locals results:

Our director @steveakehurst.bsky.social is in the HuffPost this morning, warning that we can't neatly equate seat loss to a party to vote loss to that party. www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/may-el...

This is exactly what the British Election Study tells us happened last year! Yet that did not stop a round of 'Labour losing votes to Reform' which contributed to the Govt missing the much bigger threat to their left. So these things matter analytically and in the messy world of politics.

This time next week there's going to be a lot of hot takes and spin knocking around, especially re: Reform. I've written a short primer for @politicshome.bsky.social on how to stay sane and navigate the immediate post-election chaos. Thread here too. 🧵 www.politicshome.com/opinion/arti...

Misunderstood, over interpreted, unrepresentative: How to read the local election results

The internet will be teeming with hot takes as soon as the first declarations come in on Friday morning. To help you navigate a weekend of noise, h...

politicshome.com

Always worth reading research from @persuasionuk.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 5mo ago

NEW: After Gorton & Denton, how should we understand the threat to Labour's left? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out with @38degrees.bsky.social on 'progressive defectors' - Lab 2024 switchers to Greens, Plaid, SNP, Lib Dems. Who are they, who are they not & what's moving them? 🧵

Tactically I think Reeves made best of a bad situation today - the individual measures were sensible and some good stuff in there. But we're 4 years from an election not 4 months. Key is whether less pain now (re: manifesto) now means less progress on public services, cost of living etc by 2029.

Duncan Weldon@duncanweldon.bsky.social · 8mo ago

I think a government in a stronger political position would have been prepared to be bolder at the moment.

Must read for Labour - then they can't say they weren't told!

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵

Fascinating report out today looking at the choices facing Labour ahead of the budget - there are no good options but failing on core progressive goals is a much bigger risk for Labour govt than breaking promises on tax.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵

Ahead of Budget, where do voters stand on tax and the dilemmas facing government? Big new @persuasionuk.bsky.social report out today on this. TL;DR as risky as breaching the manifesto is for Lab - failing on public services, cost of living and child poverty is *far riskier* for Lab. 🧵

WATCH: @steveakehurst.bsky.social discusses our latest research on the government's 'least worst option' on tax rises with @anooshc.bsky.social on the @newstatesman1913.bsky.social podcast. www.youtube.com/watch?v=zV73...

Labour CAN raise tax, if… | UK Politics | The New Statesman

YouTube video by The New Statesman

youtube.com

NEW: our latest research on where voters stand on tax rises v improvements on public services and cost of living is out now. Read it here: persuasionuk.org/research/bud...

The New Statesman@newstatesman1913.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Exclusive: New polling signals Rachel Reeves could get away with breaking tax promises "The rewards for measurable positive change outweigh the risks of breaking promises trapping her in a cycle of unpopular tinkering and tweaks" 📊 @anooshc.bsky.social

Interesting from @samfr.bsky.social as ever "...young women’s leftwards turn is not just an issue for parties on the right, it’s a problem for centre-left parties too. They are fixating about the loss of older voters to the radical right [while] haemorrhaging young women to parties like the Greens"

Why are young women increasingly left-wing?

And how it could change politics

open.substack.com

Nigel Farage makes mistakes just like any other politician and his close relationship with Trump is a big one, as explained by Persuasion Director, Steve Akehurst on the @newstatesman.com podcast: Read the full research here: persuasionuk.org/research/ref...

Farage and Trump relationship a problem for Reform | UK Politics | The New Statesman

YouTube video by The New Statesman

youtube.com

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

What messages might Reform be vulnerable to?

Exploring weaknesses in the Farage brand - an experiment.

strongmessagehere.substack.com

WATCH Persuasion Director @steveakehurst.bsky.social discuss our latest research on Reform's brand weaknesses on the @newstatesman.com podcast with @rmcunliffe.bsky.social and Anoosh Chakelian: youtu.be/7uT0R_FBllE?...

Labour must say THIS to beat Reform | UK politics | The New Statesman

YouTube video by The New Statesman

youtu.be

This is fascinating research - Attacking Reform on links to Trump and corporate interests reduces support for them. Whereas showing video of Labour going after small boats perhaps marginally increases support for Reform.

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · last yr.

We know a lot about what makes people vote Reform. But what kind of opposition messages might Reform or Farage be vulnerable to? Some new @persuasionuk.bsky.social research out today as featured on @newstatesman.com pod! Give it a read if you want. strongmessagehere.substack.com/p/what-messa...

Quite an interesting gender gap opening up in vote intention at the mo: Reform vote notably more male, residual Con vote more female. Boris’ 2019 coalition was unusually male by historic standards, and has fractured in quite gendered ways. Lab->Green also more female than Lab->LDs, curiously.