Per Nielsen

@perwagner.bsky.social

https://perwagner.substack.com You are not better than Trump because you dislike him. If you refuse to act while a war burns next door, you are in fact worse. Your values do not count if you will not pay for them

Apparently, when russia fires ballistic missiles at a European capital, nobody quite does the attacking But when moscow makes a claim about 🇺🇦, the headline instantly finds an active verb, a culprit, and 7 bodies. To call this both-sidism would be a compliment 😵‍💫 Screenshot of my BBC podcast feed

Bild

A paramilitary group plotted to overthrow the Constitution then conducted a violent attack on America. They were convicted in court of seditious conspiracy, and jailed. Then the leader they aimed to illegally install got power and let them out, their records wiped clean. The Jan. 6 attackers won.

Judge Pained as He Grants Dismissal of Jan. 6 Charges Against Oath Keepers

The judge, Amit P. Mehta, blasted the administration’s request for a dismissal in the case, saying it bestowed “unearned grace” on the Oath Keepers defendants “by wiping their records clean.”

nytimes.com

Every social media website is a non-representative “echo chamber,” shaped by user activity, the incentives of the attention economy, and usually an algorithm designed to maximize the website’s income. To at least some extent, that’s unavoidable. Why is it wrong if different sites are different?

Gauging public opinion and getting a sense of what The People think is a bad use of social media. You’re not getting a representative sample. Misguidedly thinking you are leads to beliefs such as Nazi tattoos are working class values and to win elections you have to show that you’re cool with them.

open.substack.com/pub/janisklu... I think Janis Kluge get it absolutely right here. The Russian army of today is not a prof. army (it was in 2022), it is also not a "national army", as in an army of conscripts. No, it is essentially a mercenary army.

The composition of Russian forces in Ukraine

Russian budget data suggest that the number of contract soldiers fighting in Ukraine has risen to around 550,000, while fewer than 170,000 mobilized soldiers remain.

open.substack.com

Many in Europe assume our air forces would effortlessly crush Russia in a war, but we simply don't have the munitions for it. We desperately need larger stockpiles of air-launched munitions, particularly cruise missiles

Bild

"Pay attention: Morocco isn’t some ‘banana republic’ that’s easily losing track of tens of thousands of people amassing on its borders, but actually a police state monitoring its own population 24/7. Therefore, it does take super-incompetence to look the other way

When an EU member is in trouble, esp if instigated from outside, as for Spain in Ceuta, solidarity should be the only EU response. Far-right reactions is yet more proof there’s no “moderate” far-right, only different ways far right forces seek to dismantle European integration

Just a reminder that since Laura Loomer announced her support for Ukraine, Trump has: 1) walked back a promise to let Ukraine build Patriots, 2) denied a ukrainian request for 300 PAC3s, 3) slow walked 400mil in congressionally approved aid for Ukraine. But the vibes were good!

Trump said the US has not agreed to license Ukraine to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, arguing that Washington must guard sensitive weapons technology. He said recipients of such technology could later turn against the US. #Ukraine

Bild

Russia killed an entire family overnight in the Kryvyi Rih district A missile struck their home, killing 47-year-old Artem, 41-year-old Olena, their seven children: Mark, 17; Dominika, 16; Viorika, 14; Zakharii, 13; Azarii Ilai, 11; Federika, 9; and Emilia, 7; as well as their 18-month-old grandson

Bild

On a ceasefire in Ukraine: "Acceptance of a flawed agreement could be driven by the reasonable, but incorrect, assumption that a ceasefire is a better and cheaper option in the long term than supporting Ukraine to the maximum extent possible to continue fighting and resisting – and

The pro-Israel crowd tries to portray Mamdani's position on Netanyahu as a fringe. In reality, 49% of Americans support arresting Netanyahu; only 22% oppose! Among young people, the split is 58-17 But here's the kicker: Among Harris voters, it's 74-10!

Bild

It is tragic watching Ukraine backers getting completely played by Loomer and Trump. She will say whatever she needs to to get paid while he laughs and gives Ukraine nothing of value and continues to help Putin. Nothing has materially changed in the last weeks--nothing.

Interesting observation (I think). Back in 2024/2025, most of the analysts I listen to (Anders Puck, Mike Kofman/Rob Lee,Tom Cooper,and others), almost universally said something along the line of: if Ukraine can get through 2025, then 2026 will look much better, and conversely, from end-2026