Peter Harrell
@petereharrell.bsky.social
Many posts will be about international economics and/or politics. Plus other topics that are on my mind.
In the WSJ, @petereharrell.bsky.social lays out the case for why a trade report due out in April constitutes an opportunity for course correction on the trade war. www.wsj.com/opinion/this...
Opinion | This Is No Way to Run a Trade War
Trump is misusing a statute to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico that hurt American interests.
wsj.com
Thrilled to host former Trump Term 1 Deputy U.S. Trade Rep. C.J. Mahoney on Security Economics to talk trade policy (as well as how to regulate AI). Whether you agree or disagree with Trump's policies, C.J. helps break them down. Full episode on YouTube, Spotify, etc. youtu.be/Pt97ZQ-h9JA?...
C.J. Mahoney Joins Security Economics
YouTube video by Security Economics
youtu.be
We keep reading that “the market” is a check on Trump economic policy. Interested to see if it is a check on Elon as well.
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · last yr.FT: “.. An entrepreneur .. told German media that he had been ‘completely overrun’ with orders for a sticker he produced for Tesla owners that read: ‘I bought this before Elon went crazy.’” $TSLA www.ft.com/content/ea23...
U.S. tariffs have failed to contain China’s global economic ambitions, writes @petereharrell.bsky.social. The Trump administration will need to pivot—and start working with foreign countries to reduce their trade with Beijing.
How to Stop a Trade War
Trump, tariffs, and the coming transformation of global commerce.
foreignaffairs.com
Last I checked, Brad Setser still hadn't made over here from the other platform. But I want to share the discussion I had with him yesterday (Sunday) about Trump's opening salvo in the Great American Trade War: www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6WN...
Brad Setser on Trump's Trade War
YouTube video by Security Economics
youtube.com
Retaliation beyond tariffs: Canada is beginning to target Elon's companies directly, not just tariffing imports from the U.S. Will be watching to see if this spreads to financial services, oil & gas, tech, and other companies in Trump's orbit. www.ft.com
Financial TimesFinancial Times
News, analysis and opinion from the Financial Times on the latest in markets, economics and politics
ft.com
Trump does care about equities, but I am unconvinced that a 1.5% fall in stocks--even if this materializes after markets open would materially make Trump reconsider the Great American Trade War.
Patrick Chovanec@prchovanec.bsky.social · 2y agoDow futures before opening are down almost 700 points.
Trump can rely on plenty of laws to implement his tariff ambitions. (He could even ask Congress for new powers if he can sell his vision). But IEEPA--the 1977 law frequently used for sanctions--should not be one of those laws. My take in @lawfare.bsky.social: www.lawfaremedia.org/article/the-...
The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs
Forcing Trump to use trade statutes—or to go to Congress to seek new authorities—would be more consistent with IEEPA’s history and practice.
lawfaremedia.org
"Courts should find that allowing Trump to waive his magic sharpie to sign an IEEPA Executive Order imposing tariffs would upset the balance Congress has long sought to strike when it delegates its tariff authority to the president," writes @petereharrell.bsky.social.
The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs
Forcing Trump to use trade statutes—or to go to Congress to seek new authorities—would be more consistent with IEEPA’s history and practice.
lawfaremedia.org
In a new Carnegie paper, I map the web of rules the US has created to regulate Chinese apps, software, and connected devices. It's not just TikTok: this will be a key pillar of US-China relations, alongside tariffs & export controls. Plus policy recs! carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Managing the Risks of China’s Access to U.S. Data and Control of Software and Connected Technology
U.S. policymakers need to develop a more systematic and comprehensive framework for managing the data security and influence risks that come from cross-border data flows, Chinese software, and connect...
carnegieendowment.org
Top questions for Lutnick confirmation today: 1. Details on tariff plans, including legal authorities? 2. Will he continue CHIPS? 3. Export control lessons from DeepSeek? 4. What Chinese ICTS devices/software should the Department's ICTS office focus on as potential security risks?
A 20% universal tariff and 25% tariffs on Mexico and Colombia aren't going to make coffee prices come back down....
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 2y agoCoffee and egg prices: all-time highs. 🥚 ☕️ (via Kevin Gordon)
This is good news. After years of abuse, it is past time to reign in the US government’s snooping on American citizens’ messages without a warrant.
Electronic Frontier Foundation@eff.org · 2y agoA federal court has declared that warrantless searches of US person’s communications collected for national security purposes is unconstitutional. Now it’s our job to make sure Congress knows that when they renew this law in a little over a year.
Will be interesting to see next week if Trump’s Trade EO, which starts a deliberative process on tariffs that will play out over months and involve lots of analysis, or if Trump’s repeated remarks of “25% tariffs starting Feb. 1!!!” prevail. Definitely the “let’s see what happens” trade Presidency.
Tomorrow at 10:30 am, the CSIS Economic Security and Technology Department welcomes Reta Jo Lewis, Chair of the Export-Import Bank of the United States, to discuss how the newly introduced Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative can bolster U.S. economic security. Register: www.csis.org/events/secur...
Securing America’s Economic Future: A Conversation with EXIM Chair Reta Jo Lewis | CSIS Events
Join CSIS EST for a conversation with EXIM Chair Reta Jo Lewis on the new Supply Chain Resiliency Initiative (SCRI), fostering U.S. economic security through resilient supply chains, plus insights on ...
csis.org
Reps. Moolenaar and Krishnamoorthi joint statement and letter out in support of the planned AI chips partner deployment rule is an interesting counterpoint to some of the (at times colorful) opposition out from industry over the past several weeks.
Today's Department of Commerce action starting the process to ban Chinese-made drones illustrates a point I've been making for the last year: bans on devices and software due to perceived security risks will be as important an element of U.S.-China decoupling as are tariffs and export controls.
Today’s exhibit of the rest of the world getting tired of Chinese overcapacity: Mexico’s 35% textile tariffs. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Mexico Hikes Tariffs as Much as 35% to Support Jobs in Textiles
Mexico has increased tariffs by as much as 35% on products that could impact its domestic textile industry, the Economy Minister said.
bloomberg.com
On Lawfare Daily, @sranderson.bsky.social spoke to Ashley Deeks and @keichensehr.bsky.social about their law review article “Frictionless Government and Foreign Relations,” the dangers that can arise when there is broad consensus on policies and strategies policymakers can embrace for managing them.
Lawfare Daily: Frictionless Government and Foreign Relations, with Ashley Deeks and Kristen Eichensehr
What is frictionless government?
lawfaremedia.org
I’ve been pretty pessimistic about a Trump Presidency, but even I never predicted that he would shut down the federal government in the -1st month of his term.
Waymo still doing better than humans at preventing injuries and property damage
Waymo still doing better than humans at preventing injuries and property damage
Insurance claims back up safety claims.
buff.ly
CISA officially recommending use of encrypted messaging apps "such as Signal." Amazing how massive Chinese hacking has gotten the USG to suggest Americans take communications security seriously (compared to the prior position of opposing encryption...) www.cisa.gov/sites/defaul...
cisa.gov
The incoming Trump team has an opportunity to undertake the most important re-write of the global trading order in more than 30 years--or to stumble into costly tariff wars. My advice, as a former official, to the new team, in @foreignaffairs.com. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
How to Stop a Trade War
Trump, tariffs, and the coming transformation of global commerce.
foreignaffairs.com
IEEPA, a statute originally passed in 1977 to deal with time limited emergencies, is now used for everything from sanctions to cloud services KYC to Chinese investment restrictions. I agree with many of the specific uses, but it is past time for Congress to examine the statute and look at reforms.
Interesting that Commerce is considering banning Chinese WiFi routers, citing security risks and using the same “ICTS” authority used for Chinese connected cars. My take: “connected device restrictions” will become a 3rd pillar of US-China economic statecraft, alongside tariffs & export controls.
Pleased to co-author with CJ Mahoney a new Carnegie Endowment piece on how the Trump Administration can use the 2026 USMCA renegotiation to strengthen U.S. industry, build supply chain resilience, and promote secure supplies for clean energy materials: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Toward a Cleaner, Smarter USMCA
Renewal negotiations offer the best—maybe the only—path to strengthening North America's clean energy supply chain.
carnegieendowment.org
My take on Lighthizer's job search is much less fun than the news stories. He wanted Treasury or Commerce. Those are always hard given (a) 2 openings, and (b) many qualified candidates. When Trump went elsewhere, Lighthizer decided happy to advise from the outside. Also, Trump still wants tariffs.
