Pia Raffler

@piaraffler.bsky.social

Political Science Assistant Prof @Harvard. PE of development, CP. Political accountability. Experiments. African politics

Very happy to finally have this paper out! My deep thanks to my great collaborators @piaraffler.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social and to the many others who provided keen insights and feedback in seminar presentations and as it wended its way through the >6 year publication process.

Pia Raffler@piaraffler.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Publishing null results *is* hard. Thrilled to finally see this paper with @danielnposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social investigating the impact of bottom-up accountability on healthcare outcomes in print in the JOP. Thread 👇 doi.org/10.1086/736577

This is a remarkable piece of research, executed with extraordinary care and with profound significance for practitioners. I can’t recommend it highly enough.

Pia Raffler@piaraffler.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Publishing null results *is* hard. Thrilled to finally see this paper with @danielnposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social investigating the impact of bottom-up accountability on healthcare outcomes in print in the JOP. Thread 👇 doi.org/10.1086/736577

We've been talking about this paper for years. So great to finally see it in the Journal of Politics! I learned so much along the way from my coauthors @piaraffler.bsky.social and @danielnposner.bsky.social‬ and the many colleagues at @poverty-action.bsky.social that made this possible.

Pia Raffler@piaraffler.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Publishing null results *is* hard. Thrilled to finally see this paper with @danielnposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social investigating the impact of bottom-up accountability on healthcare outcomes in print in the JOP. Thread 👇 doi.org/10.1086/736577

Congratulations to CID Faculty Affiliate @piaraffler.bsky.social and co-authors @danielposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social on their recent publication in @thejop.bsky.social. Read below for more details ⤵️

Pia Raffler@piaraffler.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Publishing null results *is* hard. Thrilled to finally see this paper with @danielnposner.bsky.social and @dougparkerson.bsky.social investigating the impact of bottom-up accountability on healthcare outcomes in print in the JOP. Thread 👇 doi.org/10.1086/736577

1/ At 17 weeks pregnant, Emily Waldorf was suddenly faced with a life-threatening situation: Her baby’s foot was dipping out of her cervix. Doctors told her the longer her cervix stayed open, the higher her risk of infection. They knew how to treat her. There was one issue … 🧵

A woman with shoulder-length dark hair wearing a reddish-brown corduroy jumpsuit.

ONLINE tomorrow: @guygrossman.bsky.social will present our new paper on the effects aid cuts for refugees. We follow 5400 households over 2 years and leverage a regression discontinuity design in Uganda. We find that self-reliance policies are not enough to mitigate the negative impact of cuts.

Guy Grossman@guygrossman.bsky.social · 6mo ago

I'll be presenting tomorrow at 11am EST a new paper at the ONLINE Science of International Migration Seminar (SIMS), organized by Stanford IPL and ETH. Paper title: "Aid cuts for refugees reduce welfare without increasing self-reliance." To register: immigrationlab.org/science-of-i...

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

Are female economists treated differently than males in academic seminars? These authors wanted to know whether gender shapes how scholars are treated when presenting research. So they built a massive dataset of 2,000+ economics seminars, job talks, and conference presentations from 2019–2023...

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I am hiring a post-doctoral fellow (2 years) to work on all things political finance in Africa. There are no teaching obligations, and lots of opportunities for fieldwork. A PhD in Political Science is a requirement. Please spread the word! Happy to answer questions - send them to my LSE email.

LSE Department of Government@lsegovernment.bsky.social · 8mo ago

🚨We're #hiring! We're looking for a #Research #Fellow to join our team. The successful candidate will be part of the research project "Political #Finance in #Africa" led by Associate Professor @sarahbrierley.bsky.social for 2 years. 🗓️Apply by Monday 12 January 👇🏽 jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

I sometimes teach in Providence. In the classroom where I most frequently teach, there's a section labeled for where students are supposed to go for active shooters. It is a cliche of a phrase, but I want to echo the Professor here and say: it does not have to be this way.

Chanda Prescod-Weinstein 🌌@chanda.blacksky.app · 8mo ago

AS A PROFESSOR, I AM ASKING HOW ARE OUR STUDENTS SUPPOSED TO LEARN IN THESE CONDITIONS? HOW ARE THEY SUPPOSED TO GO TO SCHOOL AND TAKE EXAMS KNOWING SOMEONE MIGHT JUST SHOW UP WITH AN EASY TO ACQUIRE AUTOMATIC WEAPON? HOW??????????

🚨Jobs!🚨 3-year PostDoc positions (aka Research Officers) at @lsegovernment.bsky.social to work with me on the local consequences of border change. Please reach out for questions and apply by Jan 4th to join the team and department: I’d love to hear from you! Job ad: jobs.lse.ac.uk/Vacancies/W/...

Research Officer

Research Officer, , <p style="background: white; margin: 0cm; text-align: center;"><em><span style="color: #333333;">LSE is committed to building a diverse, equitable and truly inclusive university</s...

jobs.lse.ac.uk

All of us—including myself—should publish fewer but better papers. And we should spend more of our time on scrutinizing existing work, so we know which claims can be trusted. But that's hard work with little recognition. Thanks @sophieehill.bsky.social for doing it. Impressive 🕵️‍♀️ work. Fun to read.

Sophie E. Hill@sophieehill.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Blog post: github.com/sophieehill/... TL;DR: There are a LOT of errors/inconsistencies in the results reported in this paper (estimates outside CIs, sign errors, duplicates, asymmetric CIs). Even in the abstract itself! This suggests manual editing of results tables. Which is not good... 🧵