Steven S Smith
@profstevensmith.bsky.social
Political scientist, ASU and Wash U. Congress, elections, public opinion, survey research. Husband, dad, granddad. RT ≠ endorsement. Personal views. https://stevesnotes.substack.com https://sites.wustl.edu/smith/
Some notes on presidents and Senate filibuster reform. The (nearly) unprecedented tension between Trump and Senate Rs. stevesnotes.substack.com/p/note-47-pr...
Note 47. Presidents and Filibuster Reform
For most of the 20th century, a strict norm governed the relationship between the White House and Senate procedure: Presidents stay out of Senate rules.
stevesnotes.substack.com
the memo from Doran Schrantz shared in this Kuttner piece via this link is an absolute must-read www.documentcloud.org/documents/28...
Act Free to Be Free
documentcloud.org
David Dayen@ddayen.bsky.social · last wk.I don't know how you look at everything Trump's been doing to mess with the election and think anything other than that he's trying to rig it. But whether he will succeed is a different matter, as Bob Kuttner reports. prospect.org/2026/07/28/t...
Presidents and filibuster reform: A short note. stevesnotes.substack.com/p/note-47-pr...
Note 47. Presidents and Filibuster Reform
For most of the 20th century, a strict norm governed the relationship between the White House and Senate procedure: Presidents stay out of Senate rules.
stevesnotes.substack.com
Read @nedfoley.bsky.social, pointing out a big David French mistake in his @nytopinion.nytimes.com column Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body electionlawblog.org?p=157565
Another reminder: the House is not a continuing body #ELB
David French is one of my favorite opinion columnists. I often agree with his analysis and judgments, and when I don’t, I invariably find them thoughtful. That’s why it’s distressing this morning to ...
electionlawblog.org
It’s a small, insider thing but @HuffPost is reporting that neither Thune or Johnson put out a statement last night after the so called presidents wild ranting. For the 2 leaders not to react like this is almost unprecedented
Headline: Trump Claims CIA & FBI Covered Up China Election Inference During His Administration.
I’ve been watching the House slim hearing with Supreme Court justices; re-upping what I recently wrote. www.contrariannews.org/p/reining-in...
Reining in a Rogue Supreme Court
It is up to Congress to use its legitimate Article I powers to do so.
contrariannews.org
After a wave of questions about precedents for McConnell's situation: Look at the Thad Cochran episode in 2017. Little info on the condition of the Approps chair for weeks. Eventually retired.
My thoughts on the day. I'd have liked the simpler title, "Is It the Fourth?" But editors get their own say on that. I do think that the close of Winthrop's sermon aboard the Arbella in 1630 sounds the right counterpoint to the aspirations of the Declaration. washingtonmonthly.com/2026/07/04/i...
Independence Day, From Jefferson to Reagan to Trump
The 47th president has smashed norms, enriched himself, and even bungled cleaning the Reflecting Pool. But July 4 still survives.
washingtonmonthly.com
I have a new post up at Nate Silver's site about UMich's sentiment survey. Please read it I think it's quite good. The upshot is that the survey is broken because it doesn't weight by party. If you're talking vibecession, get a different survey. www.natesilver.net/p/is-the-vib...
Is the vibecession real — or is the survey broken?
A shift to online polling and undersampling of Republicans are skewing America’s most-cited measure of consumer sentiment.
natesilver.net
@bennet.senate.gov would have been a great governor for CO, but the Senate is a better place with him there. Here’s hoping he runs for reelection in 2028.
Exactly. Protect investors but not workers or consumers.
Tom Clark@tomsclark.bsky.social · last mo.Big surprise. SCOTUS says Trump can fire anyone from independent agencies, except the Fed. For some reason, ungrounded in the Constitution, the federal reserve is unique. (The reason is that the Justices have financial investments and value them.) Couldn't be more nakedly political.
Kalshi gave Donald Trump Jr. $300K in equity after making him a strategic advisor last year. Since then, Kalshi’s valuation has exploded by 1000%. Meanwhile, Trump’s regime has stifled state efforts to regulate prediction markets and crack down on insider trading. Always follow the money.
Essential viewing and reading: @pkrugman.bsky.social and the NYT on Trump family corruption. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/corruption...
Corruption for Make Benefit Glorious Family of Trump
The emoluments are the message
paulkrugman.substack.com
We should increase the size of the US House & require PR for its members, but I count very few legislators who want to dilute their power or give up being the single conduit to the House for their districts. With sizable Democratic majorities after the '28 elections, we might get districting reform.
I was really sad to hear about Dave Rohde's passing. Dave was, of course, an incredible scholar. He was also a great advisor and so many of us owe him a debt of gratitude for helping launch our careers. When I'm puzzled by something, I'll often think to myself, what would Dave do. It usually helps.
Thune on the the SAVE America Act .. and nuking the filibuster: “Everybody knows we’re not nuking the filibuster… At some point, it seems like we ought to start making this an issue with the Democrats rather than with each other.” 'A pretty extraordinary rebuke of Lee and other GOP Senators ..'
I believe this will be only the second civilian nomination this Congress to be considered under a unanimous-consent agreement, not using cloture. (The other one was Rubio. None have been confirmed by unanimous consent/voice vote.)
South Chicago is expressing the true spirit of America today.
@leedrutman.bsky.social is right--seriously right--about the need for proportional representation for House elections. substack.com/home/post/p-...
“Open the primaries” is the wrong answer to the right question
Why isn't November the election that matters? Single-member districts are the problem. Primary reform doesn't fix that.
substack.com
Worth reading. americanpulse.substack.com/p/your-neigh...
Your Neighbour Canada Has Changed. What’s Happening Now Is Explosive. You’re Not Going To Like It. But You Need To Know It.
The story Washington isn’t telling you. The truth American media is missing. And the consequences that are already hitting your wallet, your security, and your country’s place in the world.
americanpulse.substack.com
Susan Collins, the Maine Republican, who is in the middle of a tumultuous re-election race against Graham Platner, became the first senator in history to reach 10,000 consecutive votes cast without an absence. nyti.ms/3Q6SMxl
The slipperiest slope in the Senate is reconciliation.
Support Ukraine, now. multipolaritypod.substack.com/p/the-formul...
Formula developed by long-dead British polymath shows one side nearing defeat in Ukraine
The iron law of warfighting mathematics shows the Ukraine war is only a few months away from a tipping point beyond which the losses of one side will snowball, leading inexorably to defeat.
multipolaritypod.substack.com
