Philip Patton

@ptpatton.bsky.social

Postdoctoral Fellow at the Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute, Migratory Bird Center Webpage: http://philpatton.github.io Cover image: https://biodiversitystripes.info/global/birds

I'm not sure folks have realized just how crazy the second half of 2026 and 2027 will be for global temperatures – on the back of a record-smashing El Niño event. Here is my latest estimate of where both years will end up compared to global temperatures since 1850.

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Bordeaux, France, has now recorded more days above 40°C in 2026 alone than during the entire 105-year period from 1920 (when observations began) to 2025. This is deeply shocking.

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Remarkable amount of fire on the ground, and smoke in the air, this evening. In this satellite snapshot, numerous large fires (red thermal detections) and smoke plumes stretch from Great Basin northward into British Columbia; fire weather conditions will worsen this weekend.

Current snapshot from NOAA Wildland Fire Data Portal showing extent of Thu fire activity in Western U.S.

Yesterday's "lightning bust" in eastern Oregon & Washington has already resulted in >100,000 acres burned & dozens of new wildfire ignitions. Many are in grass & brush and may be managed soon, but at least 10 are in heavier (forest) fuels and are taking off this PM. #ORwx #WAwx

Snapshot of current wildfire activity form NOAA Wildfire Fire Portal. Dozens of large heat signatures are visible, and around 10 major smoke plumes are now apparent across eastern Oregon and Washington.

A major new wildfire outbreak is now underway across interior Pacific Northwest, with dozens (or more) new wildfires already popping up in eastern Oregon & Washington following tens of thousands of lightning strikes in region experiencing moderate to extreme drought. #ORwx #WAwx

Current Watch Duty snapshot across PacNW, showing literally dozens of new fires in eastern Washington and Oregon.

Why is AC so rare in much of Europe? Well, until recently it simply wasn't hot enough to need it. Here is the average number of days above 30C (86F) for major cities over time:

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I’m looking to recruit a postdoc to join my research group at University of Iowa to work on disturbance ecology and biodiversity! Start date flexible, lots of opportunity for skill development, collaboration, and mentorship. Will review applicants in mid-August! Link: gavinmjones.com/opportunities/

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BIG NEWS! The Jones Lab will be relocating to the School of Earth, Environment, and Sustainability (SEES) at the University of Iowa in Fall 2026. Our work on disturbance ecology and conservation sc…

gavinmjones.com

I have just resigned from the board of "Statistics and Computing", along with 17 other Associate Editors. This was a difficult decision: this great journal has published many tremendous articles under the leadership of EiC Ajay Jasra, and before him David Hand, Gilles Celeux, and Mark Girolami.

I am hiring! My former postdocs have all gone on to great ongoing roles, so I am now looking for 2 new postdocs in dynamic vegetation modelling: Modelling vegetation-fire interactions in Australia Modelling Australian vegetation distributions Details linked below - please share!

Connectivity job opportunity: trustcareers.si.edu/postings/cb8... "postdoctoral researcher to lead the development of next-generation landscape connectivity science, advancing modeling approaches that integrate high-resolution remote sensing, machine learning, and circuit- & network-based methods. "

Ecologist (Postdoctoral Research Fellow), IS-0408-09

Job Opening: Ecologist (Postdoctoral Research Fellow), IS-0408-09 at National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute in Front Royal, VA.

trustcareers.si.edu