Ross Dahlke

@rossdahlke.bsky.social

asst. prof. @uwsjmc.bsky.social rossdahlke.com

My MA student, Huang, and I find 16% of US adults report using Polymarket. Use is higher among those with lower incomes and less education, but similar across political parties. In both parties, use is correlated with lower civic knowledge and certain anti-democratic attitudes:

Key findings from a survey of U.S. adults about Polymarket. Any use was reported by 15.7%; 11.2% used it a moderate amount or more. Use was higher among Democrats (16.8%) and Republicans (18.0%) than Independents (10.8%); adults under 50 (about 23%) than older adults (6.5–7.0%); and Black (30.4%) and Hispanic respondents (20.1%) than White respondents (11.4%). Use declined as income and education rose and was somewhat higher among men than women. Users had varied demographic profiles. Compared with nonusers, users scored lower on a basic civics question and were more accepting of some forms of political rule-breaking and limits on debate or speech. These patterns generally appeared within each party.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.
Image description
Six grouped bar charts show self-reported Polymarket use by age, income, gender, education, party, and race and ethnicity. “Any use” was reported by 23.0% of ages 18–29, 23.5% of ages 30–49, 6.5% of ages 50–64, and 7.0% of ages 65-plus. Use declined from 19.9% among households earning under $50,000 to 9.4% among those earning $150,000 or more, and from 19.6% among adults with a high-school education or less to 12.8% among those with a four-year or postgraduate degree. Rates were 17.7% for men and 14.2% for women; 16.8% for Democrats, 10.8% for Independents, and 18.0% for Republicans; and 11.4% for White, 30.4% for Black, and 20.1% for Hispanic respondents.

Thanks to UW IT for inviting me to present my Polymarket data collection pipeline at Google Cloud Platform Research Day. Pipeline enabled by cloud computing: $40B in volume, 500M trades, and 1.25M comments with continuous collection. Preprints and public datasets coming soon!

Via this pipeline we have collected $37.8B in trading volume Electoral prediction markets: a quantitative description Two scatter plots showing the relationship between trades and comments. R = 0.28