I enormously enjoyed recording this PPF episode on Major Douglas’s Social Credit - a crank economic theory of the interwar period that caused immense frustration to mainstream intellectuals (including Keynes, Cole, Hobson and Gaitskell) but whose followers ended up taking power in Western Canada.

Past Present Future Podcast@ppfideas.bsky.social · 3d ago

BONUS EPISODE OUT NOW! In this PPF+ bonus David talks to political historian @dmk1793.bsky.social about an idea of the 1920s & 30s: social credit, meant to usher in an age of abundance & freedom, producing conspiracy theories & crypto-fascism instead. Join PPF+ now: www.ppfideas.com/join-ppf-plus

So Convergent the most accurate pollster in Makerfield. Is showing Labour in the inner city close to their GE24 numbers: Hackney North: 55%, Lab, Green 21% Hackney South: 53% Lab, Green 23% Walthemstow: 48% Lab, Green 23% GE24 HN: 59% Lab, 23% Green HS: 59% Lab, 24% Green W: 59% Lab, 20% Green

Convergent Opinion@convergent-opinion.bsky.social · 3d ago

New MRP from @convergent-opinion.bsky.social: Labour ahead under Burnham, but still short of a majority Seats (change vs June): 🌹 245 (+138) ➡️ 174 (−112) 🌳 99 (+19) 🔶 67 (−17) 🎗️ 25 (−8) 🐉 8 (−2) 🌍 7 (−13) Labour leads but is 81 seats short of a majority 25–30 July, n=10,919

This is very good on something about devolution that worries me as well; the lack of scrutiny and accountability of mayors. Jen focuses on the press - but I also have concern about the lack of democratic scrutiny as well from other elected representatives. London has the GLA. WECA has... yeah

Jennifer Williams@jenwilliamsft.bsky.social · 6d ago

A bit on something that’s worrying me as.ft.com/r/9fe0cfe2-f...

Strongly agreed. www.ippr.org/articles/wha...

Pretty close to my prediction. But cons night in this and have Lib Dem completely squeezed in the first round Turnout: 40% First round Labour: 41% Reform: 24.3% Greens: 15.3% Conservative: 9% Restore: 8% Lib Dem: 2.4% Second round Labour: 69% Reform: 31 open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

Greater Manchester Mayoral by-election Prediction

Burnham bounce takes Labour over the line, whilst insurgent parties stall.

open.substack.com

Luke Tryl@luketryl.bsky.social · last wk.

Our polling of Greater Manchester ahead of Thursday’s by-election shows Bev Craig holding a clear lead. First preference results: 🌹 LAB 39%
⏩ REF 19%
🟢 GREEN 14%
🌳 CON 12%
🔶 LIB DEM 8%
🔵 RESTORE 8%
⚪️ IND 1% N = 1,003 | Fieldwork 11-23/7

1/ Great reporting in The Times on the emerging momentum behind support for compulsory voting, which @ippr.org called for a couple of weeks ago: www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

Compulsory voting on the table as Burnham ponders electoral reform

Proposals seen by the prime minister’s advisers suggest a £10 fine for those who do not cast a ballot, with a ‘none of the above’ option to be included

thetimes.com

fundamentally i think everyone has forgotten the goal of left-of-centre politics is more than winning a single election, it's establishing a social democratic hegemony

Ciaran@ciaranmcgurdy.bsky.social · last wk.

Yeah I'm basically of the same view, centre left governments have basically forgotten it's their job to build centre left institutions and ultimately more centre left voters. Burnham seems to be the first person to get this basic fact with his homelessness & council housing commitments

Labour must not take the wrong lesson from its recovery. Burnham's bounce is coming from progressive voters who currently see their values and priorities reflected in the new administration. But the previous government showed how quickly that support can disappear if they no longer do.

For labour to call for an early election they need to polling around 35% I would say because of margin of error. How much of the left and right bloc can the squeeze to get there. Considering greens, one poll, down nearly to there 24 GE levels.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 2w ago

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 26% (+2) LAB: 25% (+1) CON: 19% (-2) LDM: 10% (-1) GRN: 8% (-3) SNP: 3% (=) RES: 1% (-1) Via @survation.bsky.social, 22-24 Jul. Changes w/ 10-14 Jul.

This is an attempt by the Greens to place second. If you’re not leading with one pollster, and your best pollster (find out now) is showing you losing Manchester, borough, by a large margin. A borough you won in 26 locals. Second is your best hope. magazine.newstatesman.com/2026/07/25/t...

The Green plan to steal the Manchester mayoralty

The Prime Minister has left a vacancy that Zack Polanski’s party would love to fill

magazine.newstatesman.com

Excellent piece. "The fish hesitates from the head".

Morgan Jones@morganj0nes.bsky.social · 2w ago

In February I wrote a long article about what Starmerism took from New Labour. Hopefully Burnhamism learns different lessons: renewal.org.uk/blog/on-its-...

2 Labour gains from Refrom in Thurrock. Key swing seat. Went very heavily Reform. As I said these Thurrock by-elections would be a key weather vane for the Burnham bounce. Look at how Greens and Lib Dem vote was squeezed. Must be one of the first gain from Reform by Labour in a very long time

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 2w ago

Grays Town (Thurrock) Council By-Election Result: 🌹 LAB: 37.0% (+5.3) ➡️ RFM: 27.0% (-7.8) 🙋 Ind: 13.0% (New) 🌳 CON: 12.3% (+1.3) 🌍 GRN: 8.8% (-7.3) 🔶 LDM: 1.9% (-4.5) Labour GAIN from Reform UK. Changes w/ 2026.

Very good. My quibble is the second half of this article. The consensus that pre blair Labour government operated in was not popular and 'voters got rid of at the first opportunity'. Just falls into whiggish Blair hagiography

Robert Shrimsley@robertshrimsley.bsky.social · 2w ago

How the spad class sneaked back into power. www.ft.com/content/d692...

This piece by Kellner. Really gets to the core of the perception deficit at the heart of our politics. substack.com/home/post/p-...

The approval figures keep on going down for Polanski. It will be fascinating how this starts to play out in by-elections in cities as Burnham progresses.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 2w ago

Latest major party leader net favourability ratings, July 2026 Andy Burnham: +3 Ed Davey: -8 Kemi Badenoch: -11 Zack Polanski: -26 Nigel Farage: -46 yougov.com/en-gb/articl...

My most recent susbtack is a Great Manchester by-election prediction. My projection is historic turnout with Labour defying their poor losses in the local as insurgent parties stall, and we start to see the Burnham bounce. open.substack.com/pub/leftwing...

Great Manchester by-election Prediction

Burnham bounce takes Labour over the line, whilst insurgent parties stall.

open.substack.com

Two wards in Thurrock. Quite finely balanced wards where the progressive vote outstrips that of the right. Will give us some of the first indications of a Burnham bounce. In a an area traditionally seen as real swing territory. Can labour squeeze the green vote?

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 2w ago

The churn of British PMs continues, as does that of Council By-Elections, with 5 contests taking place this week: 🌳 Exmouth Brixington (East Devon) 🌳 Cuxton, Halling & Riverside (Medway) 🌳 Longwell Green (South Gloucestershire) ➡️ Grays Riverside (Thurrock) ➡️ Grays Town (Thurrock)

The bet Burnham and Haigh have made is that they can run the treasury, and have done enough to reassure the markets to make sure that happens with these appointments Ultimately the balance of power will come down to if Burnham is seen as a winner btw-Healey was Labour2win leadership candidate

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 2w ago

BUT: 'there is an old right Chancellor who is well-connected within the party and not going to have their own power base, there is a Blairite chief secretary' - that was the Starmer arrangement and it's not clear IMV why this configuration will yield better results purely with a more charismatic PM:

Reform currently leads Labour 33-15 on the lowest socio economic bracket, and Labour is behind the cons with this group. As Labour likely climbs in the polls it will be fascinating if they can bring this gap down.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 2w ago

Our latest voting intention poll, conducted shortly before the change in PM, shows a close race, with Labour and the Tories each within the margin of error of Reform UK for the first time in more than a year Ref: 23% (-1 from 12-13 Jul) Con: 21% (+2) Lab: 20% (+1) Grn: 14% (-1) LD: 12% (-1)

If Burnham takes the first steps to rent control. It will be in part thanks to all the Labour voices who have consistently called for this Proud that Hackney Labour passed a motion calling for rent control and said we would deliver a new generation council built rent control homes in our manifesto

Pippa Crerar@pippacrerar.bsky.social · 2w ago

BREAKING: Andy Burnham tells reporters he's looking at cutting energy bills and bus fares as part of cost-of-living package which could eventually include more radical plans such as freezing private sector rents.

Was intrigued by this so went to have a look at how Labour voters values/priorities differ by whether they live in more metropolitan or provincial constituencies. The answer is: not much ! Geography matters at the margin, but a Lab voter in Makerfield is not that different to one in Hastings.

Tyron@tyron.bsky.social · 3w ago

Genuinely a bit offensive as a summary

Nate Cohn really captures how Graham Planter, who has rightly stood down, speak to what is now the centre ground of the centre left. Planter ran as a non DSA progressive in a state that went heaviely Biden against Sanders in the 2020 primary. Some shades of Burnham here.

Austerity “never happened” and Truss is “much misunderstood” in the same paragraph is some achievement (Matthew Syed today).

I had a go at exploring what Burnham could actually do, realistically, in the short term. (Always a dangerous choice for a historian...). Despite the structural challenges, on which I'm liable to focus, my answer is not 'nothing'. blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp... @lsepoliticsblog.bsky.social

What can Andy Burnham actually do? | LSE British Politics

Andy Burnham might be more charismatic than Keir Starmer but the problems he is inheriting go beyond personality. Can he really make a difference?

blogs.lse.ac.uk

I really enjoyed returning to Past Present Future to talk about "political conversions" - starting with my favourite topic: interwar socialists who eventually embraced fascism

Past Present Future Podcast@ppfideas.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW EPISODE OUT NOW! Today is the 1st in a new series of conversations with political historian @dmk1793.bsky.social about what causes people to switch sides, ideologies & worldviews – stories of political conversion. We begin with converts from socialism to fascism. Find us at...🎧 ppfideas.com

Great to see my @ippr.org report (with @harryqp.bsky.social & @sofiahewson.bsky.social) cited by @guardianheather.bsky.social here: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

UK must cap political donations to stop the rich buying influence | Heather Stewart

If Keir Starmer won’t act then his successor should – by restricting the power of a small group of mega-donors

theguardian.com

EXC: Britain's biggest housebuilders have enough land to build nearly one million homes but at the current rate it could take 14 years. A new study found the country's five biggest housebuilders are sitting on enough land to build 869,000 homes www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...

UK's biggest housebuilders slammed over banking land for nearly a million homes

EXC: Babelfish found the country's five biggest housebuilders are sitting on enough land to build 869,000 homes – more than half of the Government's target of 1.5 million homes this Parliament

mirror.co.uk

Find out now have been the most the insurgent party friendly pollster. If Reform continues to fall with them they cld be in real trouble.

Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 4w ago

Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 23% (-2) CON: 20% (+1) LAB: 18% (-3) GRN: 16% (=) LDM: 13% (+3) SNP: 3% (+1) Via @findoutnow.bsky.social, 8-9 Jul. Changes w/ 1-2 Jul.

🧵 Progressives need to think much more ambitiously about citizenship: it can't only be a debate about the "who" - the boundaries of citizenship. Our new @ippr.org report today makes the case for a new politics of "democratic citizenship": www.ippr.org/articles/the...

The democratic citizen: Renewing citizenship and the public domain | IPPR

Often, this descends into little more than an argument about eligibility for welfare benefits. This is a disaster for progressives, who find themselves fig

ippr.org

Yes Burnham can form a majority coalition but there will be no guaranteed loyalty to that government. There are diminishing numbers of voters in the bank. But as we have seen you only need to be in late 20’s/early 30’s to get a majority. Cld be less if Reform implode.

Dylan Difford@dylandifford.bsky.social · 4w ago

It's not improbable that Reform fall below 20% in VI by the end of the year. It's reasonably likely that some Lab to LD/Grn voters will give Burnham the benefit of the doubt. What's definite is that both happening will lead to a flurry of terrible "whisper it, the two-party system's back" articles.