Sam Wang
@samwang.bsky.social
Recent candidate for New Jersey's 12th Congressional District. SamForNJ.org. Neurosciencer, democracy reform studier, plotter of data by hand as first step. At Princeton too. Long-form essays at samwang.substack.com.
Highly doubtful. El-Sayed and Stevens poll within several points of one another against Rogers. It is virtually certain that voters will come home by November. This is wishful thinking.
Wajahat Ali@wajali.bsky.social · 2d agoVOTE BLUE NO MATTER... www.semafor.com/article/07/3...
This is a comment about El-Sayed vs. Stevens in the Michigan Senate race. A change of 0.1 of probability is not nothing - but it's marginal. We should ask what kind of Democrats we want in office. Right now, US democracy needs deep structural change. We have to get ready to rebuild in 2029.
Zachary Shirkey@zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · yesterdayA 10% difference in win probability in a close race is pretty meaningful!
Mallory McMorrow immediately endorses: “Congratulations to Abdul El-Sayed for winning the Democratic primary to become our nominee to be Michigan’s next US Senator. I’m proud to give Abdul my full endorsement and support as we head to November together as a unified party”
MeidasTouch@meidastouch.com · 6h agoNEWS: Abdul El-Sayed has won the Democratic Primary for U.S. Senate in Michigan. He will face off against Republican Mike Rogers in November.
What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...
Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?
Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual
blog.fiftyplusone.news
|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 7h agoPolling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.
the intentional abdication by Congress of nearly all of its constitutional responsibilities is at the core of most of our problems as a nation
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · yesterdayCornyn: "There's nothing we could do to rein in the president"
Have James Carville and Bill Maher left the Democratic Party yet? Let me be the first to say, "Good morning, good afternoon, and goodnight!"
The close result is Michigan is perhaps less desirable from some perspectives but it has the benefit of demonstrating to some degree that the dem coalition is still a real coalition
At the Electoral Innovation Lab, our summer fellows have been busy! Tomorrow (Wednesday) join us for **two** Substack Live broadcasts. 2pm ET: New routes to voting rights in New Jersey, thanks to a state law enacted last month! 3pm: A hidden benefit to multimember districts! samwang.substack.com
This rescue takes the form of a “continuing resolution” that funds the federal government through December 11. **Now it has to pass the House.** Call your member of Congress to urge support for “the Senate CR.” US Capitol switchboard: 202-224-3121. www.scientificamerican.com/article/sena...
U.S. senators push against giving political appointees control over science funding
These proposed changes have seen significant bipartisan pushback and have been criticized by scientists across disciplines
scientificamerican.com
This may dramatically slow down the attacks on science. It also provides a template for how to prevent the federal government from becoming a patronage state. It’s a big deal!
Politico@politico.com · 3d agoSenate finalizes funding patch that would block Trump’s grant overhaul
This is a comment about El-Sayed vs. Stevens in the Michigan Senate race. A change of 0.1 of probability is not nothing - but it's marginal. We should ask what kind of Democrats we want in office. Right now, US democracy needs deep structural change. We have to get ready to rebuild in 2029.
Zachary Shirkey@zachary-shirkey.bsky.social · yesterdayA 10% difference in win probability in a close race is pretty meaningful!
All of us researchers should aspire to be a little bit Mary Gray.
Kendall Powell@kendallsciwrite.bsky.social · yesterdayI love a story about a researcher who is a force for good: @nature.com's Working Scientist profile of Mary Gray, statistician, mathematician and lawyer. As told to Rachel Crowell. How I use statistics and my law degree to fight human-rights abuses www.nature.com/articles/d41...
So, some difference. But that’s on average. A far more important consideration is individual variation between contests, which is driven by local factors and candidate quality. That variation is much larger. Anyway, for now this argument seems to be 1-2% of voters might not come home. /end
All of us researchers should aspire to be a little bit Mary Gray.
Kendall Powell@kendallsciwrite.bsky.social · yesterdayI love a story about a researcher who is a force for good: @nature.com's Working Scientist profile of Mary Gray, statistician, mathematician and lawyer. As told to Rachel Crowell. How I use statistics and my law degree to fight human-rights abuses www.nature.com/articles/d41...
So whatever we thought the win probability for Stevens would be in November, subtract 0.1. (switching to typical probability units in the hopes of avoiding confusion with vote share) For example, if her probability was be 0.8 (80%, or 4-1 odds), then El-Sayed’s would be 0.7 (70%, or about 5-2).
This coincides with the average advantage of moderation, as analyzed by @gelliottmorris.com. He finds an advantage of 1.0-1.5 points in vote share, i.e. 2-3 points of margin. That corresponds to a 10 percentage point difference in win probability. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/moderation...
Moderation is not a silver bullet
In 2024, moderate candidates for the U.S. House barely outperformed the average partisan
gelliottmorris.com
In current polls that asked both Rogers-vs-Stevens and Rogers-vs-El-Sayed questions (n=4), the differential is anywhere from a six-point advantage for nominating Stevens over El-Sayed to a three-point advantage for El-Sayed. The median difference is 2.5 points, at present.
Super interesting. If we are to restore Congress as first among equal branches of government, we need to change its rules from inside. Let’s find a candidate for Speaker who will work for real reform.
Sam Bagenstos@sbagen.bsky.social · 2d agoThis is a great set of proposals for congressional reform: wethedoers.org/how-to-fix-c...
Super interesting. If we are to restore Congress as first among equal branches of government, we need to change its rules from inside. Let’s find a candidate for Speaker who will work for real reform.
Sam Bagenstos@sbagen.bsky.social · 2d agoThis is a great set of proposals for congressional reform: wethedoers.org/how-to-fix-c...
Don't fix SCOTUS. Strip it of appellate jurisdiction & give it to a new court drawn by lot from the whole federal judiciary. Congress has the power to this & there's already a bill in the House to get it done.
Phillip Hallam-Baker@phill.hallambaker.com · 2d agoFixing the corrupt Roberts Court has to be job one for the incoming administration. Nothing can improve as long as the likes of Clarence Thomas are taking a million a year in bribes to be the FedSoc voice on the court.
Highly doubtful. El-Sayed and Stevens poll within several points of one another against Rogers. It is virtually certain that voters will come home by November. This is wishful thinking.
Wajahat Ali@wajali.bsky.social · 2d agoVOTE BLUE NO MATTER... www.semafor.com/article/07/3...
Yes, “do your own research” is generally a red blinking danger light
ryan cooper@ryanlcooper.com · 2d agowhen people say "do your own research" they generally mean "do not trust anyone with any relevant training or experience"
Yes, we will be doing that soon. It will be housed at election.princeton.edu and votemaximizer.org!
Home - Princeton Election Consortium
election.princeton.edu
MI for democracy@mifordemocracy.bsky.social · 3d agoSorry to change the subject, but will you be coming out with your moneyball candidates soon? I want to be sure that my donations will be as impactful as possible. Thanks in advance.
Super useful. I figure a lot of us here in the Sky know this stuff already, but it might be handy to hand to parents, grandparents and pals who are less technically minded. www.librarian.net/NoToAI/
How to disable or avoid intrusive AI – librarian.net
librarian.net
“The legislation includes language to block President Donald Trump from finalizing a plan to put political appointees in charge of approving grants. The prohibition would last for the duration of the funding patch.” Great.
More on the big picture and what we have to be doing in the months ahead: samwang.substack.com/p/building-h...
Public Comments Form Half Of A Plan To Stop the Takeover of Science...
...here's the second half.
samwang.substack.com
I love Talarico and hope he wins. But he’s already raised $70M On the flipside, control of critical state legislatures will come down to seats where candidates raise 0.1% of that. I’ve researched the highest leverage swing district candidates you should donate to secure.actblue.com/donate/donat...
Donate to the candidates on the front lines of the fight against MAGA gerrymandering
These are anti-MAGA state candidates in *extremely* close races
secure.actblue.com
This may dramatically slow down the attacks on science. It also provides a template for how to prevent the federal government from becoming a patronage state. It’s a big deal!
Politico@politico.com · 3d agoSenate finalizes funding patch that would block Trump’s grant overhaul
