Sam Handlin

@shandlin.bsky.social

Swarthmore political scientist. Elections, autocracy, and the politics of digital surveillance in Venezuela and beyond. Currently moving from the other place...

Reckonings within the DC policy establishment never happen but the following should be recognized: Liberal champions of Venezuelan democracy got played and gave cover and legitimacy to amateur neo-imperialists, helping them birth a dangerous and destabilizing new order.

decades of “national security” people treating those concerned about US imperialism as wacko commies while intoning gravely about a supposed liberal/rules-based order under threat by a rotating cast of someone else.

Coup Dynamics and Escalation Risk in Venezuela Air strikes offer little guarantee that Maduro will be ousted. Maduro is unpopular and illegitimate. But its not clear why this matters. Air strikes do not trigger a popularity contest. 1/

I get why Team MCM/Edmundo makes this argument yet its still hugely annoying to be told that anybody who believes democracy might not magically materialize in an already failed state after US sponsored regime change via force is simply providing cover for Maduro. www.wsj.com/opinion/what...

Opinion | What Comes After Maduro Falls

Disregard the warnings of civil war. Venezuela stands united behind democratic leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González.

wsj.com

We simply had to intentionally destroy the world’s strongest economy while dismantling our scientific and educational infrastructure to ensure that a team with a trans girl would never finish second place in the Mountain West volleyball standings again

This phenomenon deserves its own name in which otherwise smart elites engage in all sorts of insane theorizing to rationalize what Trump is doing. DOGE is the disruptive force government needs. Trump is a savvy geopolitical strategist. Recessions are actually good. 1/

Pavithra Suryanarayan@pavisuri.bsky.social · 2y ago

Elites of a certain generation are having a hard time seeing Trump & Co as mafia goons. They insist he must have some philosophy of power that America has already been through & is returning to. The failure to update is going to be very costly. Pirates have boarded the ship & you can’t mildly argue

How many federal workers would DOGE need to fire to make up for Musk not paying his fair share of taxes? Answer: 677,000. That's 44% of the entire non-DoD federal workforce. Again, this power grab is not about the budget. It’s about politics.

Title: What Costs More: Billionaire Tax Avoidance or Federal Workers?
Subtitle: Musk’s tax avoidance could fund 677K federal jobs
	•	Current Tax Rate: 3.27%
	•	Top Federal Tax Rate: 37%

Cost Comparison (Bar Chart):
	•	Cost of Musk’s Tax Avoidance (smallest bar, purple)
	•	Cost of Top 100 Billionaires’ Tax Avoidance (largest bar, red)
	•	Total Federal Workforce Salaries (mid-sized bar, green)
X-axis ranges from $0B to $380B, showing that billionaire tax avoidance covers a significant portion of federal workforce salaries.

Impact on Federal Workforce:
	•	Average Federal Salary: $106,000
	•	Jobs Musk’s Avoidance Could Fund: 677,782 (29.5% of all federal employees)

Federal Workforce Breakdown (Pie Chart):
	•	A segment representing 29.5% of the workforce highlights the share Musk’s avoided taxes could fund, labeled “Share Equal to Musk’s Avoided Taxes: 29.5%”.

Sources:
	•	Musk’s Tax Rate: ProPublica
	•	Billionaire Gains: Bloomberg Billionaires Index (Dec. 31, 2024)
	•	Federal Employee Data: USAFacts

So many mainstream journalists got snowed into repeating the obviously farcical story that Trump's envoy made such grave threats that he got Netanyahu to fold. Netanyahu gave Trump a "win" and now Trump will turn a blind eye to the annexation of the WB and shrug when the war returns to Gaza.

Ryan Bohl@ryanbohl.bsky.social · 2y ago

Trump will not use US leverage to preserve the ceasefire; he will not even use US sanctions leverage to weaken the far-right in Israel as Biden did. US strategy with Israel/Palestine will switch to Maximum Bystander, allowing the Israelis to do what they see as necessary.

The news of a deal in Gaza is an immense relief, first and foremost. It is convenient for both Trump and Bibi to claim that the former wielded sticks and forced the latter's hand. Far more likely is that Trump offered some awful carrots, like support for the ethnic cleansing of the West Bank.