One thing to mention here, and why we are transitioning to use the relative index RONI, is because the oceans are warming so fast it’s much easier to reach these huge anomalies these days. This shows the warming in the ENSO 3.4 region. Thanks Brian McNoldy for the graph. @bmcnoldy.bsky.social
*2026 El Niño Ahead by a Mile* It’s remarkable for us scientists to witness El Niño’s evolution. If you had asked us if something like this was possible a year ago, it would have been a definitive no. But here we are… already more than 1C (& 3 months) ahead of the next strongest episode in 1997… 1/