hi bbc, maybe next time there's a heatwave you can re-use some of these pictures instead of the "fun in the sun" shots?
Ian Hall@ianhall.bsky.social · 3w agoRecord heat. Bone-dry landscapes. Strong winds. Then the wildfires arrive. None of this should be surprising anymore. As heatwaves become more intense, the impacts cascade through ecosystems, infrastructure, public health, and emergency services. www.bbc.com/news/article...
The scale gap is stark. Current durable CDR delivery is in the low thousands of tonnes per year. Pathways consistent with 1.5C need billions of tonnes per year by mid-century. That is a six-order-of-magnitude jump in 25 years.
Many climate models omit the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. In this new paper we show that inlcuding it can increase Earth system tipping risks, especially in overshoot scenarios with peak temperatures below 3°C or peak cumulative emissions of below 2000 PgC. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks
Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Steinert, Norman J, Munday, Gregory, Sandstad, Marit, Sanderson, Benjamin M, Wunderling, Nico
iopscience.iop.org
Things keeping Earth's systems scientists at night... it's actually a long list, but one of them is "unexpected things which may dissolve gas hydrates", and one of them turns out to be fresh water from glacial melt. 🧪🌊 Link: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01978-3
"This ocean-driven process significantly enhances the sensitivity of the ice shelf basal mass loss to ocean warming, and the resulting differential melting promotes channel growth, with the potential to undermine the structural stability of the deeper part of the ice shelf" 😬
Channelized topography amplifies melt-sensitivity of cold Antarctic ice shelves - Nature Communications
Cold Antarctic ice shelves may be more vulnerable than assumed. High-resolution modelling shows that small basal channels trap warm water, amplify melting, and trigger a feedback that promotes further...
nature.com
The Amazon’s tipping point may be much closer than expected. Just: 👉 1.5-1.9 °C warming, and 👉 22-28% deforestation could trigger a large-scale ecological transition across 62–77% of the Amazon forest. Why? Deforestation creates a self-reinforcing drying cycle… www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold - Nature
The Amazon forest faces a near system-wide transition of 62−77% of the area under a combination of 1.5–1.9 °C global warming and 22−28% deforestation.
nature.com
You can get to a high-warming world without high emissions . That's the part of this week's "RCP 8.5 is implausible" discussion that's getting missed. A short thread on why the relief is premature 🧵
1/ There's a system of ocean currents in the Atlantic that shapes Europe's #climate, drives monsoons, and keeps sea levels stable along the US coast. In the last 5 years, the scientific evidence that it could collapse has shifted dramatically. Most people have no idea. 🧵
Breaking: New study using observational constraints projects that the Atlantic Ocean circulation #AMOC will weaken ~50% by 2100, even for medium emissions and without Greenland melting. 🌊 More realistic models means stronger weakening - not entirely unexpected. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Science | AAAS
science.org
New study finds the "canary in the coal mine" for the #AMOC: a consistent decline of the western overturning circulation, down from 20 to 15 Sv during 2004-2023 at 26° N. 🌊 AMOC "could be at or near a critical tipping point, potentially leading to its collapse". www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Meridionally consistent decline in the observed western boundary contribution to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
Western boundary observations in the Atlantic suggest a meridionally consistent decline in the ocean overturning circulation.
science.org
New findings suggest that phosphate scarcity in warming oceans could boost methane emissions, creating a feedback loop that may accelerate global climate change beyond current projections. doi.org/hbwh7p
Hidden ocean feedback loop could accelerate climate change
The world's oceans may be quietly amplifying climate change in ways scientists are only beginning to understand. In a new study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, University of Rochester scientists—including Thomas Weber, an associate professor in the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and graduate student Shengyu Wang and postdoctoral research associate Hairong Xu in Weber's lab—uncovered a key mechanism behind methane production in the open ocean.
phys.org
37 yrs ago today - March 19, 1989 – “Ministers delay plans to curb climate danger” Thatcher had made her famous speech in September 1988. But it was clear by March 1989 that nothing would actually change, that it was all, well, hot air... allouryesterdays.info/2026/03/18/m...
Countries that *did* deploy a lot of renewables & electrification are already faring better than they otherwise would have . Here are some examples: 1/ Pakistan, still highly exposed to Gulf LNG supply crunch BUT estimated to save $12 billion due to solar boom: www.linkedin.com/posts/lauri-...
Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊 Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework". pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping
This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...
pub.norden.org
NEW RESEARCH: Climate change on track to slash global crop yields by 24% before 2100. Like, within the lifespan of your kids. Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this. agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Climate change will devastate crop yields
A sweeping new analysis finds that warming global temperatures will dampen the world’s capacity to produce food from most staple crops, even after accounting for economic development and adaptation by
agupdate.com
This is a truly horrifying account of increasingly likely collapse of essential natural systems which would bring mass food shortages, price rises & global disorder. Commissioned from UK intelligence chiefs but scandalously suppressed by Govt, & sneaked out now while attention is elsewhere 👇
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
A short thread about the back story behind our new study. 🌊 A pile of evidence suggests the Atlantic overturning #AMOC (and its surface branch North Atlantic Current) has slowed. But some colleagues were sceptical, arguing the Norwegian Current and its deep return flow haven't slowed. 1/6
Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf@rahmstorf.bsky.social · 7mo agoSome consider the lack of weakening of the currents between Atlantic and Nordic Seas an argument against an ongoing #AMOC weakening. Here we show why the opposite is true: AMOC weakening causes a temporary increase in Nordic Seas overturning. 🌊 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...
Interesting n intriguing analysis of the US action in Venezuela pointing at the threat from China to the dominance of the $ as the world’s reserve currency, being the real reason‼️ #Venezuela #oil #trump tinyurl.com/3s4mfw2u
The Real Reason Why the US Overthrew Venezuela
And why it all started in China in November 2025
tinyurl.com
From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...
" #Climate scientists have already warned that extreme weather events ... will continue to worsen as temperatures increase," said Renard Siew, climate change advisor to the Centre for Governance and Political Studies in Malaysia. "That is exactly what we have been seeing."
Floods across Southeast Asia kill at least 250 as rescuers step up recovery operations
The death toll from floods across large swathes of Southeast Asia rose to at least 250 on Friday.
sbs.com.au
It further shows a similar sea-level rise pattern after #AMOC shutdown as we found in Levermann et al. 2005, with the dynamic rise extending down into the South Atlantic. (That would be added to any global rise caused by climate warming.) 🧵 ➡️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Can we please convince Wall St to fund solar powered AI data centres. By the time everyone realises AI sucks we just have an abundance of cheap clean energy?
Antarctic science at COP30 🌍❄️ A panel of Australian scientists, including ACEAS Deputy Director @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW), today shared insights about abrupt changes unfolding across the #Antarctic environment at the #COP30 Cryosphere Pavilion. Watch now: www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw...
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
youtube.com
Time is up for 1.5°C. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is virtually exhausted: 170 GtCO2, equivalent to 4 years at the 2025 emissions levels.
Grateful to spend two days on the Klamath watching chinook, liberated by dam removal, return to streams from which they’d been precluded since the Titanic sank. Fish are everywhere, in numbers that stagger the mind & locations that biologists figured would take years to repopulate. Too beautiful.
Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%. This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement. www.unep.org/resources/em... 1/
If larger glaciers retreat at similar rates, it could have “catastrophic implications for sea level rise”
Rob Larter@polarrobs.bsky.social · 9mo ago
The defense team presses Lairmore on whether the sandwich really 'exploded.' They return to the photo of the sandwich and wrapper on the ground. "That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks. "It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
"If basal melting in East #Antarctica is not properly accounted for, future sea level rise may be considerably underestimated... We urgently need to integrate these seasonal dynamics into #climate models to improve projections..." - Dr. @adele-morrison.bsky.social
Overlooked melting in East Antarctica could skew sea level rise projections
New research into how East Antarctica’s ice shelves melt reveals future global sea-level rise predictions could be significantly underestimated.
unsw.edu.au