Jonathan Vigh

@skywatcher77.bsky.social

PhD atmospheric scientist working on hurricanes and weather- and climate-driven risks. Pro-Constitution, pro-democracy, and politically independent. Enrolled member of Seneca Nation of Indians. Wildfire survivor (#MarshallFire). Views mine.

Not a very promising view (GOES-18), considering it's still morning in the West! Forward scattering does accentuate the smoke. From a different perspective (GOES-19), it doesn't look as bad. My heart goes out to all the families in the Spokane area that lost their homes yesterday.

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Parts of Ontario and northern Michigan are experiencing a truly awful combination of extreme heat and terrible air quality due to the ongoing heatwave and wildfires in the region. While satellite imagery looks dramatic, what matters for population exposure is smoke at the surface. 1/

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#Rota (CNMI) can be seen in the southern eye of Supertyphoon #Bevi. The storm, which has estimated maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 180 mph, is directly impacting the small island of ~1900 people. This is the 2nd significant typhoon impact in less than 4 months for CNMI, a U.S. territory.

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Typhoon Bavi (WP09) looks set to continue its rapid intensification it travels toward the Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas (CNMI). Currently predicted to be a 140-kt supertyphoon by the time it arrives, but some experimental ensemble members show potential for it to be even more intense. 1/

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One factor that supported Melissa reaching this record: an Argo float southeast of Jamaica shows a dramatic decrease in upper-level ocean temperature before (18 Oct) and after (28 Oct) the storm. My heart goes out to the folks in Jamaica facing this powerful hurricane's numerous hazards today. 💔

Plot of vertical temperature profiles measured by one Argo float from October 18 (solid black line, dot on map) and October 28 (dashed black line, star on map) in the top 120 meters of the ocean near Hurricane Melissa's track segment from October 27. That track segment is represented by the short dashed purple line on the inset map, and it's short due to Melissa's slow forward speed on that date.
Philippe Papin@pppapin.bsky.social · 9mo ago

#Melissa's landfall intensity of 185 mph/892 mb ties it with the Florida Key's Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 as the record minimum pressure of any TC making landfall *anywhere* the NATL basin. I feel for the residents of #Jamaica 😞 Zoomed in G19 visible meso loop courtesy of @cyclonicwx.bsky.social

Echoing colleagues: Think before you (re)post. #Melissa is about to impact a relatively poor part of Jamaica. I doubt we will know the true extent of the devastation for days or weeks. Information vacuums fill with disinformation. Expect a lot of “breaking wind” on SM. Map source: World Bank

Map of Jamaica showing percentage of population living in poverty in 2012, which is minimal near the coasts (a few %) and maximized in the hilly interior (~40%). There isn’t even a major highway running that far west. Map source: https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/236781584080916414

Y'all - this is literally insane. I am pretty sure that I have never seen automated satellite intensity estimates this high on an Atlantic hurricane. Dvorak T-numbers approaching 8.5 are almost always with west Pac supertyphoons. Graphic from UW-CIMSS.

Graphic from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS website showing the automated satellite intensity estimate for Melissa of 176 kt winds

#Melissa, an extremely powerful and intense hurricane, has made it into the upper echelon of Atlantic hurricanes in the modern aircraft reconnaissance era, based on maximum flight level winds. At 161 kt, it is currently tied at #14 with Ivan (2004), Dorian (2019), and Milton (2024).

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Jamaica has low storm surge risk—not a lot of low-lying areas. An exception: Kingston’s Norman Manley International Airport (built on fill), Soapberry Wastewater Treatment Plant, Portmore Mall, Jamworld Entertainment Center, the National Gallery, Petrojam Refinery, Caribbean Maritime University.

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If we had crossed paths with a serial child abuser, we simply would not have hand-drawn him a naked woman or given him a birthday card. This does not seem difficult. The Epstein files must be released, and Trump must be impeached. He is unfit.

“This is not about one official. It is about the systematic dismantling of public health institutions, the silencing of experts, and the dangerous politicization of science.” ~US Senator Patty Murray. Dr. Monarez is standing up for science. Demand that Kennedy be fired. www.cnn.com/2025/08/27/h...

CDC left leaderless after new Director Dr. Susan Monarez is ousted and other key officials follow | CNN

Dr. Susan Monarez, who was sworn in as director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on July 31, has been removed from the position, the White House said Wednesday.

cnn.com

Thankfully the latest round of storms has not been as heavy as yesterday's downpours. The rain at CHA began at around 12:25 PM yesterday. With the latest addition from today's rain, the airport appears to have reached an unholy 24-hour rainfall total of 6.66". Subject to change. #Chattanooga #TNwx

WPC issued as many as six MPDs for the deadly flash flooding in the TX Hill Country starting yesterday evening and lasting through much of today. The first MPD generally set the stage for what was to come, while the next three shown were as the event unfolded.

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The Administration's proposed FY26 budget terminates NOAA's weather research programs and cooperative institutes, transferring just a handful of functions to NWS. This would eviscerate nearly all of NOAA's weather research infrastructure & expertise. balancedweather.substack.com/p/balancedwx... 1/

BalancedWx Special: NOAA releases its FY26 budget justification document

It's still the OMB budget - but now with all the gory disastrous details

balancedweather.substack.com

These images sum up where the U.S. is currently at. Our Constitution, people, and liberties are under threat. Called my TN Senators today and urged them to vote NO on this ugly, nasty bill that would cut vital services, science, and infrastructure investment. #NoKings

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