In 5 years when FOMC transcripts are released, the most fascinating question will be how Powell outlined his views on the economy and on monetary policy, and how deferential the commmitte was to him and he to Warsh.
If Warsh is going to stick to his not-explaining-policy strategy, his communications committee is going to have to rein in speeches and interviews by Fed governors and presidents almost entirely. It’s really hard to see that happening after decades of transparency.
J.P. Morgan’s Feroli on Fed chair Warsh’s presser: “It's hard to know what to make of Warsh’s remarks, which involved a lot of well-turned phrases but little in the way of a coherent macro view.”
Trump officials, rebuffed over the effort to fire one Fed governor, are looking at the possibility of trying to oust Michael Barr, another Democrat on the theoretically independent board. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Allies Eye SVB Review as New Path to Oust a Fed Governor
As President Donald Trump seeks more sway over the Federal Reserve, an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank is turning into a high-stakes political fight.
bloomberg.com
NYC’s small business owners have said it over and over: endless paperwork and uncertainty has made getting their stores up and running too difficult. So we’re cutting red tape, eliminating redundant permits (did you know you need a permit just to serve some ice cream?), and speeding up inspections.
There are TWO sets of measures. The first: a massive apparatus collecting vast quantities of data about hundreds of concrete, observable trends in the economy, finetuned over decades by thousands of experts. The second: polls about sentiment. Which one is more likely going haywire, do you think?
Houthi and The Blowfish@whinytheelder.bsky.social · 2w agoWhen your measures fail to capture the reality that the bulk of the American population has been experiencing for years, stop to consider that maybe your measures aren't calibrated properly. The economy isn't physics, describing inherent underlying properties of the universe or something
The Trump administration is trying to install its own person as chief of the Atlanta Fed. This is contrary to the Congressional design of the Fed banks a century ago where the goal was for the banks to be a counter to Washington politics and Wall Street. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Trump Allies Double Down on Efforts to Reshape Federal Reserve
President Donald Trump and his allies are renewing a push to reshape the Federal Reserve after the Supreme Court this week blocked an effort to fire Governor Lisa Cook.
bloomberg.com
I’m pulling for Morocco after being surrounded by huge numbers of their fans at their comeback win vs Haiti. Shocked by how many Morocco supporters made the trip to Atlanta.
The reason for Fed transparency is the central bank doesn’t want markets to misunderstand the Fed’s intentions and cause unnecessary volatility in the real economy—like the Bernanke taper tantrum, which was reversed over time.
I get that the ex-post inflation numbers say Powell should have reversed course sooner… “after the pandemic.” But many forget when the pandemic ended. There were a frightening number of covid deaths, almost rivaling the initial peak, from Oct to mar 22, exactly when Powell was supposed to tighten
About a 45-minute wait to vote on the last day of early voting in Atlanta. Much longer line than I have ever seen for early voting. Atlanta is eager to participate in democracy!
Trying for the worst playoff loss in Hawks history.
We didn’t really learn anything more from Trump’s Iran War address, but those things he reaffirmed are likely going to continue driving crude prices higher: - plans to achieve military targets in 2-3 weeks, which likely means further escalation
JPM: “.. Every day that this conflict persists brings us closer to the market being forced to consider the more negative implications for growth, which should ultimately push Treasury yields lower ..” @bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Attacks on Stephen Miller getting far more specific in this Daily Mail (why are the best right-on-right hitjobs always laundered thru the UK?). 1) He ordered confrontation w/protestors b4 CBP murdered Alex Pretti. 2) He countermanded Trump order not to focus on farmworkers.
Another week or two of the airport chaos and airports will effectively be shut down. Now with six hour TSA waits in Atlanta, there’s essentially no reason to fly unless you are going across country or internationally.
@andreforatlanta.com Have you thought of just shutting the Atlanta airport down until TSA funding is approved? We lived through airports closed after 9-11. It might accelerate a Congress willing to pay TSA and ending the crisis.
This is an effort to turn the Minnesota rapid responders into criminals. If Democrats make this deal, they will send me, and many others like me who have been out protecting the community, to jail.
Brad Johnson@climatebrad.hillheat.com · 5mo agoSenate Democrats may agree to a DHS deal that gives the Trump regime new powers to criminalize protesters and journalists who oppose ICE: "Hoeven said there was room for agreement over creating “serious” criminal penalties for “doxxing” and harassing law enforcement."
The thing about people who show real political courage is that usually they wish they weren't in a position where they had to show political courage.
Monday - Send more troops Tuesday - Say we’re ending war Wednesday - Send more troops Thursday - Say ending war Friday - Send more troops Saturday - Golf Sunday - Golf
The court record shows that Judge Boasberg bent over backwards to allow Pirro and the DOJ to issue the subpoena to the fed. He asked multiple times for any evidence of wrongdoing by Powell, he Eeven offered to hold an in camera hearing to privately review the government’s evidence. 1/2
“.. One official said the Strait of Hormuz could become an Iranian ‘kill box’ if ships start trying to pass through. @wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/middle...
“ … a DOJ source told the Miami Herald that agents found her to be credible – and that they would not have interviewed her four times if they thought she was lying.” “… the woman described how Epstein trafficked her to several men, including Trump, in the 1980s.”
Carl Quintanilla@carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 5mo agoPage One in Miami: @miamiherald.com
U.S. forces likely bombed an Iranian elementary school on Feb. 28 during an operation targeting a nearby military base, a New York Times analysis suggests. It is the deadliest known episode of civilian casualties since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran — and no side has yet taken responsibility.
Analysis Suggests School Was Hit Amid U.S. Strikes on Iranian Naval Base
nytimes.com
"What Texas does do right, however, is let businesses build stuff, especially housing, in stark contrast with the regulations and multiple veto points that strangle construction in many blue states." --Paul Krugman open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Dreaming of a Blue Texas
Will economic progress turn Texas progressive?
open.substack.com
Downloaded Claude app for the first time after Anthropic’s principled decision to not assist in domestic surveillance or unmonitored drones killing people. It’s pretty cool.
Fed Chair Powell might stay on as a governor, Jim Bullard says via Kathleen Hays. Bullard is a keen observer of the Fed and very clued in, so it’s worth considering carefully. open.substack.com/pub/kathleen...
Bullard: As Powell Steps Down as Fed Chair, He May Stay on as Fed Board Governor
Former St. Louis Fed President, Dean of Purdues's Mitch Daniels School of Business sees economic ground being laid for rate cut in second haf of year
open.substack.com