Many point to Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, a natural instinct and there are indeed many parallels. The US track record is appalling (as I've written abt all of them). One key difference w/ Vietnam/Afgh at least: other presidents (even Trump 1.0!) decided not to attack Iran (and Iraq's regime). 1/

Elizabeth N. Saunders@profsaunders.bsky.social · 2w ago

Can't get numb to this: The United States is stuck in a war it started, cannot end, and may further escalate to no avail, having dismantled its diplomatic apparatus, depleted its military stockpile, and destroyed its credibility. A historic strategic mistake harming millions in many different ways.

When Trump went to war with Iran, I watched every speech anyone in the administration gave and made a chart of every reason given for going to war "Eliminate ballistic capability" was the #1 reason given: more even than preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon

Iran War Reasons Chart.xlsx

docs.google.com

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2mo ago

Trump endorses Iran having ballistic missiles: "I'm saying that if other countries have them, it's a little unfair for them not to have some"

@claudmajor.bsky.social mit messerscharfem Blick auf Trumps Außenpolitik. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/07/o...

Opinion | Trump Keeps Saying He Wants to Leave NATO. Maybe He Already Has.

nytimes.com

www.welt.de/politik/deut...

Heeres-Inspekteur Freuding: „Alles, was Russland abnutzt, bringt uns in eine bessere Situation“ - WELT

Wie muss sich die Bundeswehr auf den Krieg der Zukunft vorbereiten? Heeres-Inspekteur Freuding nennt im Interview vier entscheidende Dimensionen. Und er kündigt an: Ukrainer mit Kriegserfahrung sollen...

welt.de

Role reversal: Ukraine moves training home and exports the lessons abroad www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Role reversal: Ukraine moves training home and exports the lessons abroad

For 12 years, the West trained Ukraine. Now Ukraine is training the West.

defensenews.com

NATO Has Seen the Future and Is Unprepared A simulation of drone warfare shows how far the alliance has to go to learn the lessons of Ukraine. sso.accounts.dowjones.com/logout?retur...

Opinion | NATO Has Seen the Future and Is Unprepared

A simulation of drone warfare shows how far the alliance has to go to learn the lessons of Ukraine.

sso.accounts.dowjones.com

warontherocks.com/10-ukrainian...

10 Ukrainians Humbled Two NATO Battalions. When Will NATO Wake Up?

Last May, NATO invited 10 Ukrainians to act as an opposing force during Hedgehog 2025, one of NATO’s largest exercises in the Baltics. The Ukrainians

warontherocks.com

今年2月に実施した外交・安全保障、日本を取り巻く環境などに対する継続的な世論調査プロジェクトの最新結果を発表しました。今次調査は財政的制約により質問数が限られ通常より少ないページ数となっています。そのため本資料では付録として、2026年衆議院選挙の支持政党別の意見分布も記載いたしました。 日本語版URL (PDF) : roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/uploads/publ...

Jervis Forum Article Review 188: Schendzielorz on Egeland, “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited” issforum.org/articlerevie... ノルウェーを事例に同盟国が本音では拡大抑止を信じていなくても拡大抑止は続くのではと論じた論文との由。拡大抑止を補う際にソ連を刺激しないよう通常戦力と外交に頼ったりとノルウェーならではの要素はあるようですが、書評が言うように拡大抑止はブラフなのか、ブラフとしてもソ連は抑止されていたのか等々、拡大抑止のニュアンスのある部分を考える材料になりそう

Jervis Forum Article Review 188: Schendzielorz on Egeland, “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited”

H-Diplo | Robert Jervis International Security Studies Forum Article Review 188 Kjølv Egeland. “The ‘Cosmic Bluff’ Revisited: Extended Nuclear Deterrence in the US–Norway Alliance…

issforum.org

To act faster, the EU might need to abandon unanimity, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen told the Munich Security Conference. The idea has been floated as a way of bypassing Hungary's veto on Ukraine's EU membership. More from #MSC2026: www.politico.eu/article/muni...

My first attempt to make sense of a truly historic general election. open.substack.com/pub/observin...

The age of Takaichi dawns

Understanding what happened on Sunday

open.substack.com

Pacific bomber operations last couple of days: • 11 Dec: 2 B-52s (at least one (60-0032) nuclear-capable) with Japan (no flight map released): x.com/jointstaffpa... • 9 Dec: 2 Tu-95 (nuclear-capable) and 2 H-6K around Japan (flight map released). x.com/nukestrat/st...

Our latest Nuclear Notebook is public: The changing nuclear landscape in Europe. It provides our overview of the nuclear situation, with focus on non-strategic nukes. All the players are increasing their nuclear postures. Check details here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

Great Power Diplomacy | Princeton University Press press.princeton.edu/books/hardco...

Great Power Diplomacy

A captivating history of diplomacy—and an urgent reminder of why we need to revive its lost arts to survive in a dangerous era of great power competition

press.princeton.edu

3. Memorandum From the Vice President’s Deputy Assistant for National Security Affairs (Watson) to Vice President Bush history.state.gov/historicaldo...

2022年　自民・高市氏「有事の核持ち込み」党内議論検討 www.sankei.com/article/2022...

自民・高市氏「有事の核持ち込み」党内議論検討

自民党の高市早苗政調会長は２日の記者会見で、米国の核兵器を自国領土内に配備して共同運用する「核共有（ニュークリア・シェアリング）」について「日本の領域内に核兵…

sankei.com

Coordination office marks first step in U.S. Forces Japan’s shift to ‘warfighting’ command www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/07...

apnews.com/article/japa...

Japan says it wants to join a NATO command for the support of Ukraine

Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani says Japan wants to participate in a NATO command for its Ukrainian mission as Japan increasingly steps up military ties with the largely European security organ...

apnews.com

岩屋外務大臣の「欧州・インド太平洋パートナーズ会合」への出席　www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/files/...

『国際問題』最新号は「液状化するNATOートランプ2.0政権下の大西洋同盟」特集。全編無料DL可。 「揺らぐ米国の「核の傘」への信頼：第2次トランプ政権と欧州における核抑止」を寄稿。トランプ政権発足後の欧州における核抑止を巡る動きを歴史を振り返りつつ概観しました。 www2.jiia.or.jp/BOOK/

電子版国際問題(2025年10月 No.727)

焦点:「液状化するNATOートランプ2.0政権下の大西洋同盟ー」

www2.jiia.or.jp

Japan to send SDF personnel to Lithuania for demining in war-hit Ukraine　mainichi.jp/english/arti...

Japan to send SDF personnel to Lithuania for demining in war-hit Ukraine - The Mainichi

TOKYO (Kyodo) -- Japan plans to send two Ground Self-Defense Force personnel to Lithuania to teach Ukrainian soldiers how to remove land mines as part

mainichi.jp

Japan shows NATO support with first fighter jet deployment to Canada, Europe　www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/10...

Japan shows NATO support with first fighter jet deployment to Canada, Europe

The mission, which involved four F-15Js along with two refueling and two transport aircraft, demonstrates the Air Self-Defense Force’s long-distance operational capabilities.

japantimes.co.jp

Dejavu www.lemonde.fr/archives/art...

La France s'est opposée à une demande japonaise d'association à l'OTAN

Le Monde.fr - 1er site d’information sur l’actualité. Retrouvez ici une archive du 11 mars 1983 sur le sujet La France s'est opposée à une demande japonaise d'association à l'OTAN

lemonde.fr

GREGORY H. WINGER, MIGUEL ALBERTO GOMEZ, AND LAUREN SUKIN, Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific warontherocks.com/2025/09/wash...

Washington’s Ironclad Commitments Are Rusting in the Indo-Pacific

The recent wave of meetings between U.S. officials and allies in the Indo-Pacific have been studies in the duality of American diplomacy under President

warontherocks.com

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed. I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization. A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

'"As Long As It Takes": What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?' We are thrilled to welcome Sir Lawrence Freedman (@ldfreedman.bsky.social) to Queen Mary to deliver our 4th distinguished Hennessy Lecture on 8 October, 6:30. Get your free ticket here! www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/as-long-as...

'As Long As It Takes': What does it mean to commit to Ukraine's security?

Join the Mile End Institute for our fourth distinguished Hennessy Lecture by the legendary Professor of War Studies, Sir Lawrence Freedman!

eventbrite.co.uk

Precisely. At some point, perhaps soon, Europe will face a hard choice: 1. do nothing & watch Russia grinding through Ukraine & getting closer to NATO territory, but keep Trump happy; 2. ignore Trump & deploy troops (or at least aircraft) to help Ukraine stop Putin. I'm for 2, but risks either way.

Max Bergmann@maxbergmann.bsky.social · 11mo ago

I hate to be the grump at the party. But this is all about Starmer/Macron trying to show relevance to Trump. This force is never gonna happen because 1. Russia will never say yes and if they did 2. US ain't going to go to war with Russia if it fires some missiles at some Euro troops in Ukraine. 🤷‍♂️

On troop deployment: Macron *very* clear twice: only the day *after* the ceasefire, and any deployment must be part of a "ceasefire, a truce, or a peace agreement". In other words: no European boots on the ground before an agreement.

📢Excited to share the results of the Japanese public opinion survey on foreign and security issues by UTokyo ROLES. It covers public perceptions of threats, relations with the US, nuclear issues and so on. The 3rd edition, conducted this Aug, is available. roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/en/publicati...

UTokyo ROLES Survey – Sep 2025

UTokyoROLESSurvey: SecurityAllianceandForeignEngagementResearch(SAFER)projectAimandScopeofthi...

roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp

📢今年8月6-8日に実施した外交・安全保障問題に関する日本の世論調査の結果を公開。 昨年8月・今年2月に続く3回目の調査。過去と比べ、脅威認識や核に対する姿勢など大部分で大きな変化はありませんが、対米関係については変化がみられます。 詳細は以下リンクから👉https://roles.rcast.u-tokyo.ac.jp/publication/20250904ja