To give a sense of scale, Musk is spending more on the midterms than he was on the 2024 election, and he was the biggest donor in that election. In 2025 he promised to pull back from politics and do much less political spending. Another lie.
The Stinkfoot
@thestinkfoot.bsky.social
Reporting LIVE from Seattle, WA
There was no accountability for DOGE so he is going to keep doing it. Dems should promise to minimize contracts with clearly partisan government contractors and to impose more regulatory scrutiny on Musk. At this point, nothing to lose. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/12/u...
Inside Elon Musk’s $276 Million Midterm Rescue Mission for Republicans
The world’s richest person has quietly become by far the biggest known midterm donor, trying to save Republicans’ Senate majority with some of the largest donations in American political history.
nytimes.com
Trump held a rally for literally like 200 people today. Real loser energy.
Many pollsters are using 2024 turnout as the baseline assumption for the 2026 electorate. If the GCB is D+8 with a party ID of R+1 (about 2024 turn out, nationally), and the turnout is *actually* D+3 this year, then polls are *underestimating* D vote share across the board.
Joel Wertheimer@wertwhile.bsky.social · 2d agoOk @votehub.com does have the vote history through L2 for Maine and about 1600 Dems who voted 0 or 1 time in the last three elections have voted already compared to 500 Republicans. Votehub (and I don't know how their model works they should explain it!) is now projecting a D+4 vs 2024 electorate.
I miss the days when words had fixed meanings rather than just "socialism is all the things I don't like."
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 5d agoQ: How do you define socialism personally? JD VANCE: I think in reality what it actually means in the American context is you want to replace American workers with foreigners workers, and you want boys to play in girls' sports
I'm just gonna bookmark this for future reference when Dem pundits complain about how the party has trouble communicating its message to voters. The reason you keep running into trouble with your branding isn't campus radicals. The reason is that your opponents purchased all the media outlets.
The New York Times@nytimes.com · 7d agoBreaking News: Paramount officially closed its deal to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery, creating a vast media empire.
The IRGC doesn't hate America more than Trump and his Republican party hates America.
I am 100% on board for a 2029 Revenge Tour
Bayliss Wagner@baylisswagner.bsky.social · last wk.BREAKING: In Nebraska rally, Trump just suggested he would be unbothered to see Iran "take out" LA or San Diego: “They could take out a city,” he said. “Let them take—Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego. That’s—this is a very small price to pay."
Yeah, this is good. People should realize that survey research folks try hard to learn from what happens in each cycle - and then on top of that polling methods have been changing a fair amount. So while some errors will happen, they're not especially likely to be the *same* errors.
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · last wk.New at Strength In Numbers this morning: Despite claims from some pundits and Republican strategists of biased and "fake" polling data, the polls and fundamentals basically agree on the blue wave: www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-04...
All of the pundits saying so confidently that polls are overestimating Democrats fail to mention that the polling error in 2025 in VA and NJ was twice as large as the average state poll bias in 2016 and 2024. Nobody knows direction of error ahead of time! www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10-04...
Polls and "fundamentals" basically agree about the blue wave
When you look at state-level election results, fundraising, and the national environment, surprising state polls actually make a lot of sense. Your weekly political data roundup for October 4, 2026.
gelliottmorris.com
Like I truly don’t understand how you could have been anywhere in the vicinity of Springfield Ohio even before the election and thought that he’d only go after “criminals.” Trump, Vance, and CO werent subtle in the slightest. I can only really conclude this was a lie the median voter told themselves
Siena is a great pollster but I do not buy that Collins is going to run 20% ahead of a generic Republican.
Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 3w agoMaine - Senate Polling: 🔴 Collins: 49% 🔵 Jackson: 46% Siena / Sept 22, 2026
This is a "Democrats winning the SC senate race" level margin. I have a hard time believing it but YouGov is a solid and nonpartisan outfit.
BeshearStan@beshearstan.bsky.social · 3w ago🚨New Economist/YouGov poll (9/18-9/21) 2026 generic ballot LV: 🟦 DEM 52% (+1) 🟥 GOP 38% (-1) RV: 🟦 DEM 45% (+1) 🟥 GOP 36% (-3) Trump approval LV: ❌ Disapprove 63% (+4) ✅ Approve 35% (-5) RV: ❌ Disapprove 62% (+4) ✅ Approve 35% (-5) d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/ec...
you did not have to hold your nose to vote for Hillary you did not have to hold your nose to vote for Biden you did not have to hold your nose to vote for Harris when we perpetuate this narrative we are doing the enemy's work for them! i am tired of it!
i know and respect the author, i am glad that she came down firmly on the side of "whatever else is the case, if you're in Texas you have to vote for him" but we are on year fucking TEN of "ughhh, i knowww, hold your nose and vote Democrat" and i am fucking TIRED of it
Seahawks gave up 151 total yards and 7 points. Zero points after the first quarter. That is a lights out defense.
I don't think about AI as much as a lot of people on here, but I've been thinking about it a bit lately. I don't work in tech. I work in physical-world engineering. A lot of the stuff I do can technically be done by hand (humans understand physics) but practically it requires computers.
We really can't let ourselves get accustomed to this. He's telling the people of NC that he's going to let them die if they don't vote how he wants.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 4w agoTrump: "We spent more than $2 billion in FEMA funding. You're waiting for some additional funding. I'm gonna get that to you. Now if Michael loses, I'm not sending it." Crowd: *groans*
Omg Malala Yousafzai punched somebody at a Wawa?
Max Kennerly@maxkennerly.bsky.social · 4w agoElon Musk: 20+ years here, hates American culture and most Americans, constantly undermines our multi-racial democracy as part of his obsession to restore the Apartheid of his foreign youth, says non-white people can't assimilate Malala Yousafzai: visits Philly once, instantly adopts local customs
![SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES
No. 26A305
UNITED STATES POSTAL SERVICE, ET AL. U.
CALIFORNIA, ET AL.
ON APPLICATION FOR STAY
[September 14, 2026]
The application for stay presented to JUSTICE JACKSON and by her referred to the Court is denied. The Government is unlikely to succeed on the merits of its challenge to the District Court's preliminary injunction. And the equitable factors applicable for obtaining emergency relief from this Court do not favor a stay.
JUSTICE KAVANAUGH, concurring.
In my view, based on the briefing the Court has received at this interim stage, there is at least a fair prospect that the final rule falls within the Postal Service's statutory authority. See 39 U. S. C. §401(2). But applying the rule in the 2026 elections would be arbitrary and capricious in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act because state and local election officials do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections. See 39
U. S. C. §3001(m); 5 U. S. C. §706(2)(A). For that reason, I concur in the denial of the application for stay.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:36eqtmzysqf7wsslczw4uxcd/bafkreicqn5lewxb2bkaazujt77bmsjfq4ultwu2alo3emhvgsnpkotnwoy)
I assume this logic is also why politicians famously ignore the political preferences of the old people who vote for them and spend all their resources trying to win over non-voting 20-somethings?
Matt@mattferrel.bsky.social · 4w agoMeanwhile, we have wreckers like this
If you assume 4% NGDP growth then the debt is stabilized if we close the annual deficit by 2.5% of GDP ~= $750b. Repealing the Trump tax cuts gets us half way there. An across the board 2% tax hike gets us the rest of the way there. And that's without even touching spending.
Sky Marchini@sky.skymarchini.net · last mo.>~2 trillion dollar annual deficit >GDP of ~$30t >ergo deficit >6.5% of GDP country is fucking cooked, those are nearing greece 2009 numbers
Amazing how every republican president of my life has dropped a nuclear bomb on the debt
Trump: "Please right your right hand. I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States. That loves us so much he can't even breath. That I will go out with my family, my friends, I'll do it any way - I don't care if I'm registered or not, I'm going to try to cheat like hell..."