The majority of monthly average air temperatures (2m) in Germany since 2016 have been higher than the long-term average (1961-1990). Each dot in this chart represents the monthly average for a year. #30DayChartChallenge | Day 08 - Circular #dataviz 📊 #ClimateChange

Great blog post by @gelliottmorris.com which is backed by decades of academic research. How you ask a question impacts how people answer the question! This has important consequences for how to think about puic opinion and how to treat opinion polls. Short 🧵

Many Americans hold contradictory opinions on the same policies

Our new poll finds question wording can swing opinion by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who use polls to tell politicians what voters want.

gelliottmorris.com

It would've been cheaper to do something that mattered then. You didn't. You are paying a higher price now. Ukrainians are paying a much higher one.

"Even after accounting for the upfront costs and delayed benefits, enrolling marginal applicants to public universities generates substantial net returns for society, the marginal students themselves, and the government budget." Public Universities FTW!

OTD in 2021 General Gerasimov said Russia had no plans to invade Ukraine. So you can believe that we won't re-invade after we stop what we said we wouldn't start.

This is one of the main reasons I gave up my columnist positions at Guardian U.S. The incentives made me intellectually lazy.

Da saßen also zwei Genozidüberlebende im Saal und mussten sich hasserfüllte Botschaften einer Partei anhören, die bei KEINER Genozidgedenkveranstaltung dabei sein sollte. Weil, um zu Gedenken muss Empathie und Menschlichkeit da sein. Beides hat die AfD nicht.

Krasse Unterschiede bei den Potenzialausschöpfungen. AfD schöpft fast 90% Ihres Potenzials aus (bedeutet aber auch: wenig Wachstumspotenzial kurzfristig). Zu bedenken auch: Für AfD-Wähler kommt offenkundig selten eine andere Partei in Frage... FDP gerade mal 12% Ausschöpfung... der Rest dazwischen.

Resistance was never going to come from the most privileged universities, like the Ivies, because they are the most invested in the power structure. It will come from community colleges and “directional schools”, the ones legacy media never talk about but that teach the bulk of America’s students.

The biggest threat to European security does not come from Russia but it comes from the far right within its own nation states. All of the defense spending is not going to protect anyone if Trump's and Putin's buddies are voted into office, they consolidate power and erode liberal democracy 1/

Als jemand, der in einer südwestdeutschen, industriell geprägten Kleinstadt aufgewachsen ist, überrascht es mich leider gar nicht, dass diese Gegenden einen sehr fruchtbaren Nährboden für das Wählen autoritärer Parteien bieten.

Julius Kölzer@juliusk.bsky.social · last yr.

Auffallend sind größere Zugewinne vor allem in der Pfalz, in industriell geprägten Gegenden von Schwaben und Baden in Baden-Württemberg, sowie in Ostfriesland. Die vielen kleinen und hellere Flecken auf der Karte zeigen dass AfD-Zugewinne in Großstädten eher geringer ausfallen.

So many liberal Americans are desperate to normalize their country. Seeing Trumps everywhere. Thinking every other country will be like theirs. They seem incapable of accepting that the US has much higher support for far right and is in a far worse state than Europe (bar Hungary).

For all the media hype about Sarah Wagenknecht, we will probably read little about the fact that Die Linke has profited massively from her leaving the party. As a clearly left-wing party, now without strong reactionary tendencies, it scored almost twice as much as the left-conservative BSW! #BTW25

I celebrate the 80% of Germans who did not vote for the far right. Do not make 19.6% of German voters into "the" German people (again). "The" German people don't exist! The German population is diverse and divided, but voted overwhelmingly for liberal democratic parties. #BTW25 #GermanElection

Some quick take-aways 1) Merz’ strategy doesn’t pay off (as political scientists predicted), neither in terms of vote share, nor in terms of coalition options. 2) SPD gets worst result in party’s long history. That’s it for Scholz obviously… and accommodation on immigration didn’t pay off, did it?

Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively. FDP might still make it, BSW less likely. Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins... #BTW25 #GermanElection

If we, Europeans, fail to spend big on defence now, we will be forced to spend 10 times more if we don’t prevent a wider war. As the Polish PM I’m entitled to say it loud and clear, since Poland already spends almost 5% of its GDP on defence. And we will continue to do so.