I wrote a piece for @thebulletin.org arguing that France's new non-nuclear partners should engage on #forwarddeterrence collectively, to pursue their own interests vis-à-vis Paris more effectively and increase ownership and inclusiveness of the French initiative: thebulletin.org/2026/07/forw...

Forward deterrence: What's (not) in it for France's partners

Four months after President Macron pitched a European "forward deterrence" concept, uneven bilateral terms and strict French nuclear autonomy threaten to leave non-nuclear allies with little say. To p...

thebulletin.org

Nun bekommt Deutschland doch #Tomahawk-Marschflugkörper🚀. Doch sie sollten nur eine Übergangslösung sein, denn in #Europa gibt es schon gute Alternativen. Welche das sind, lest ihr in unserer Online-Analyse:👉www.reservistenverband.de/magazin-loya...

Worth reading: Elbridge Colby on "Middle Powers", x.com/USWPColby/st...

Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby (@USWPColby) on X

There is a great deal of hubbub about a collective “middle powers”strategy these days. At DoW, we are not concerned that this is a serious possibility. Rather, we are more concerned that a few allie...

x.com

Luftwaffe chief warns Europe has ‘no time’ to counter Putin without US weapons, www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Luftwaffe chief warns Europe has ‘no time’ to counter Putin without US weapons

“Developing our own capabilities takes time. Right now, we do not have time,” Lt. Gen. Holger Neumann tells POLITICO.

politico.eu

"In puncto Reichweite und Durchschlagskraft haben sie [ballistische Raketen] ein hohes Abschreckungspotential." Ein schönes Beispiel für den Zustand der "strategischen Debatte". Aus den Eigenschaften von Waffensystemen selbst ergibt sich erst einmal gar nichts. (1/2) www.faz.net/aktuell/wirt...

Weitreichende Raketen: Deutschland und Frankreich kooperieren

Deutschland und Frankreich bemühen sich um gemeinsame neue Projekte in der Rüstung – auch in einer bislang nur von Nuklearmächten beherrschten Technik. Zwei europäische Konzerne bringen sich in Stellu...

faz.net

The cumulative pressures of the war may become such that Putin will go for a cease-fire in Ukraine, eventually. If and when he does, Russia will pivot to pursue its original war aims through other means. My essay with Michael Kimmage in @foreignaffairs.com www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/putin...

Putin Will Turn a Cease-Fire Into a Weapon

A new use for Russia’s old playbook in Ukraine.

foreignaffairs.com

On the eve of July 4th, @nuclear-jim.bsky.social and I have a new @carnegieendowment.org paper out. We look at the contributions of the U.S. nuclear arsenal to American national power (a topic that is far less straightforward than it might appear at first). carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

The U.S. will celebrate its 250th birthday tomorrow, July 4. In a new SWP podcast episode, Johannes Thimm and Sascha Lohmann analyse the state of U.S. democracy and explain what MAGA's domestic and foreign policies mean for the future of transatlantic relations: 🎙️🎧 www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...

250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence: U.S. democracy under pressure

As the United States marks its 250th birthday, questions about the state of U.S. democracy, domestic developments, and foreign policy loom...

swp-berlin.org

Putin said last week Europeans are "more or less defenseless" against Russian tactical nukes. Whether the United States has a credible response to that is not yet settled. warontherocks.com/not-imaginar...

Not Imaginary: The Deterrence Gap is Real and America Needs Low-Yield Nukes

Nuclear policy debates are at their best when they force hard questions about risk, deterrence, and military necessity. They are at their worst when

warontherocks.com

Lithuania agrees to remove constitutional ban on nuclear weapons reut.rs/4bjUMcM

Lithuania agrees to remove constitutional ban on nuclear weapons

Lithuania's President Gitanas Nauseda ‌said on Thursday that parliamentary parties had ​agreed on a ​plan to remove a ⁠constitutional provision prohibiting nuclear ​weapons on Lithuanian ​soil.

reut.rs

New publication out in an edited @fesonline.bsky.social volume: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance and Nuclear Weapons” (pp. 4–9), co-authored with @lbumeder.bsky.social. collections.fes.de/publikatione...

Und wie es der Zufall so will, haben die Kollegen @tobiaspfella.bsky.social und @lbumeder.bsky.social eine Analyse zu konventioneller Abschreckung für @internationalepolitik.de verfasst, die man unbedingt auch gelesen haben sollte. internationalepolitik.de/de/risiken-d...

Risiken der Abschreckung

Können konventionelle Raketen Deutschland wirksam vor nuklearer Bedrohung schützen?

internationalepolitik.de

Lukas Mengelkamp@lukasmengelkamp.bsky.social · 3mo ago

"Ziehen die USA ab, steht Europa blank da: Ohne eigene Strategie bleibt Abschreckung eine Illusion." Der Artikel war schon länger in Planung, ist jetzt aber unwillkürlich auch zu einem Kommentar zur aktuellen Lage geworden. (1/3) www.ipg-journal.de/rubriken/aus...

Just one thing about Macron’s speech on nuclear deterrence — we told you so in 2025: Peace Report/Chapter 3/Page 92; lnkd.in/dicEcsVq

📄 Our latest Issue Brief "Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons Testing" by Lynn Rusten examines the current challenges and outlines how this critical norm can be upheld. 🔗 Read here: deepcuts.org/publications...

Preserving the Moratorium on Explosive Nuclear Weapons testing : DeepCuts

The Deep Cuts Project analyses the potential for US-Russian nuclear arms control under adversarial conditions.

deepcuts.org

📢 New Issue Brief from the DeepCuts Commission 👉 One of the major non-proliferation achievements of the past 30 years has been the global moratorium on nuclear explosive testing. Rising tensions and renewed testing threats now put this norm and the CTBT’s legacy under serious pressure.

New @deepcutsproject.bsky.social Issue Brief out, authored by Lynn Rusten — this one tackles nuclear testing. Timely and important read — don’t miss it. deepcuts.org/publications... @jonatomic.bsky.social @nukestrat.bsky.social @jjjcameron.bsky.social @shashj.bsky.social

Was passiert nun nach dem Ende des New START-Vertrags? @tobiaspfella.bsky.social im Interview mit dem ZDF heute journal ➡️ www.zdfheute.de/video/heute-...

"Fundament für ein Wettrüsten ist gelegt"

Das New-Start-Abkommen habe zu Vetrauen beigetragen, sagt der Politikwissenschaftler Tobias Fella. Mit dem Auslaufen seien die "Schotten offen für ein Wettrüsten“.

zdfheute.de

📢 New joint statement out from the DeepCuts Commission With the expiration of the New START Treaty on 5 February 2026, the U.S. and Russia will, for the first time in decades, have no bilateral nuclear arms control agreement in place.

"'Europe has been dependent on the United States . . .' Traut said. There was 'a strong need to build up some German and European sovereign capabilities in missile detection and interception . . . We not only want to be able to detect missiles early, we want to be able to fight them early.'"

Germany plans satellite missile detection system to cut reliance on US

Berlin’s move reflects unease over depending on US capabilities to spot long-range missiles from space

ft.com

For Europe, it will remain a balancing act. A sensible approach would be to channel the US‑requested increases in defence spending into strengthening genuinely European capabilities. Trump’s statements on burden‑sharing could provide pol. cover for such a strategy www.reuters.com/world/hegset...

Hegseth expected to follow Rubio in skipping NATO ministers' meeting, sources say

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is not expected to attend a NATO defence ministers' meeting in Brussels next month, two sources said, the second time in a row that a top Trump administration offic...

reuters.com

Proud to co‑author "Future Formats of Nuclear Arms Control" — a Deep Cuts brief on how traditional U.S.–Russia arms control has eroded and what practical formats (bilateral, multilateral, tech‑focused) could help stabilize nuclear great power relations. Read it here: deepcuts.org/publications...

I co-authored a BAKS paper on the Jan 2026 Berlin blackout: Conditionally Resilient. It exposes gaps in Germany’s crisis preparedness amid growing sabotage threats. www.baks.bund.de/de/arbeitspa...

Bedingt resilient: Was der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 für die deutsche Krisenvorsorge bedeutet

Der Berliner Blackout Anfang 2026 verdeutlicht dringenden Handlungsbedarf für Resilienz und Krisenvorsorge in Deutschland, schreibt ein Autorenteam des IFSH. Foto: THW/Viktoria Pfeiffer

baks.bund.de

Berlin's multi-day blackout in early 26 highlights how 🇩🇪's critical infrastructures remain insufficiently protected against sabotage & other threats. In a new IFSH Brief Analysis (in 🇩🇪), Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Matthias Schulze, Mateusz Łabuz & I address the consequences: www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Traditional, state-centric theories reach a dead end when it comes to explaining Trump’s foreign policy. In my new IFSH brief analysis (in 🇩🇪), From Venezuela to Greenland: Consequences of US hemispheric policy, I argue that fresh concepts are needed to grasp these shifts. www.ifsh.de/news-detail/...

Die USA bedrohen #Grönland (Dänemark) und setzen damit auch die #EU und die #NATO unter Druck. Welche Art von Außenpolitik verfolgt die US-Regierung unter Donald Trump? In seiner IFSH-Kurzanalyse nähert sich unser US-Experte @tobiaspfella.bsky.social dieser Frage an. Hier nachlesen ➡️ t1p.de/qfwnp

"Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits angeordnet, so Putin." www.tagesschau.de/ausland/asie...

Nach Trumps Ankündigung: Putin erwägt Wiederaufnahme von Atomtests

Nach der Ankündigung von US-Präsident Trump zu möglichen Atomtests folgt nun die Antwort des russischen Präsidenten: Sollten die USA dies tun, würde Russland nachziehen. Vorbereitungen habe er bereits...

tagesschau.de

"U.S. military officials involved with President Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements [...] a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion." www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Exclusive: US military officials required to sign NDAs tied to Latin America mission, sources say

U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements, three U.S. officials say, a development that raises new questions about a military buildup that Venezuela fears may lead to an invasion.

reuters.com

Ukraine wants security guarantees. What is it asking for exactly, why hasn't it gotten what it wants, and what's it likely to get in the future? New @crisisgroup.org explainer lays it out.

High Stakes Promises: The Challenge of Security Guarantees for Ukraine | International Crisis Group

Ukraine is asking its partners for security guarantees – ideally now, but certainly before it makes any deal with Russia. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain why this topic is so fraught for Ukr...

crisisgroup.org

Why the impact of Poland and its NATO allies' decision to shoot down Russian drones may well be stabilizing. Expanding a bit on my Bluesky thread from yesterday with an entry in the @crisisgroup.org Analyst's Notebook series.

Drones over Poland | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert Olga Oliker analyses the implications of the decision by Poland and its NATO allies to shoot down Russian drones over Polish territory on 9 September

crisisgroup.org