Ninety today! The Montreux Convention, the grandfather of international treaties, was signed on July 20, 1936. Ankara does all it can to make this slightly archaic convention the framework for Black Sea security – with itself as the indispensable gatekeeper. carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...

Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.

carnegieendowment.org

RIP Anaklia, the project that lost the Americans and now lost the Chinese. The bottom line is there isn't the financing for it and Ivanishvili doesn't want it to happen either. Good reporting by Helena Bedwell. oc-media.org/china-pulls-...

China pulls out of Anaklia Port, Georgia to take over development

The government said it will take over the project and partner with ‘several countries’.

oc-media.org

🧭Sunday extras! NATO summit edition: "Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea" by @tomdewaal.bsky.social. [1/15]

Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.

carnegieendowment.org

I’m so delighted that Akram Aylisli won the #ebrdliteratureprize2026 for People and Trees last night, shared with @katherineeyoung.bsky.social It is a beautiful early novel about war, childhood and a village run by women, only recently translated. Much deserved by both author and translator!

Amazingly, the Montreux Convention will be 90 years old this month. It’s archaic in parts, but for Turkey it's still of paramount importance as it guarantees its role as the gatekeeper of the Straits-- an aspiration fulfilled after many centuries. carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...

Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.

carnegieendowment.org

🛡️ | This year's #NATO Summit convenes in Turkey on July 7-8, with Ukraine high on the agenda. European and the alliance's efforts to support Kyiv will require closer engagement with Ankara in the Black Sea, writes @tomdewaal.bsky.social. Read: carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...

Managing Montreux: Turkey and the Russia-Ukraine War in the Black Sea

For ninety years, Turkey has been positioned as the principal gatekeeper of Black Sea security. As a result, European and NATO efforts to support Ukraine will require closer engagement with Ankara.

carnegieendowment.org

Armenian voters have delivered a third term in office for the Civil Contract party led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. But his government will be navigating a difficult landscape. We asked @tomdewaal.bsky.social for his insights on the Armenian parliamentary election results. ⤵️

Just published- my overview of the Armenia election and the Armenia Azerbaijan peace process engelsbergideas.com/essays/armen...

Armenia, Azerbaijan and the unfinished peace

After two military defeats and the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia is betting on peace with Azerbaijan and a future beyond Russia.

engelsbergideas.com

My discussion with Samvel Meliqsetyan (in Russian) on the state of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process, the mood in both countries and how TRIPP is progressing. Thank you to Samvel for interesting questions. www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fXA...

Общественные настроения в Армении и Азербайджане отражают усталость от конфликта: Том де Ваал

YouTube video by Factor tv

youtube.com

Armenia needs EU support in its defensive hybrid war. It also needs EU investments to make the normalization process with Azerbaijan work. See the recent SUITS Policy Brief on this by @tomdewaal.bsky.social www.su.se/english/divi...

Super news! Akram Aylisli's early novel People and Trees, superbly translated by Katherine Young is one of the three finalists for the EBRD book award. I am a big fan of the luminous novel and the courageous man and this gives him the tribute he deserves. www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...

EBRD Literature Prize 2026 finalists announced

Three translated works from shortlist of ten chosen by independent jury

ebrd.com

In which I argue that the European summits in Yerevan do need to show support for Pashinyan as the only mainstream Armenian politician with a positive vision. But.. Pashinyan's over-personalized and polarizing style of rule will become a problem, if unchecked. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickf...

carnegieendowment.org

🆕 | Europe has an interest in supporting 🇦🇲 leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickfire flash, that will win the day, says @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

There Is No Shortcut for Europe in Armenia

Europe has an interest in supporting Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan as he tries to make peace with neighbors and loosen ties with Russia. But it is depersonalized support in the long term, not quickf...

carnegieendowment.org

Jokhar Dudayev died 30 years ago today. As someone who met the man and saw his brand of macho nationalism in action, I recall here the complex crazy story of Chechnya in the 90s. Russia committed crimes in Chechnya. Dudayev played his role in making that war happen. www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDn6...

#14 Chechnya - Humiliation leads to Assassination

YouTube video by Putschcast

youtube.com

Welcoming @kadriliik.bsky.social to Carnegie Europe as a visiting scholar! As a longstanding expert on EU-Russian affairs, she will complement our ongoing analysis of Europe's geopolitical standing and its ability to respond to Putin's war in Ukraine. We will share more of her work soon.

Orban's defeat will have a big resonance in Georgia, where Georgian Dream pinned its hopes on having an illiberal friend in Hungary and the leaderships were very close. I wrote this back in 2023 but a lot is still relevant. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

The Orbanizing of Georgia

Georgia’s ruling party is mirroring the strategies of Viktor Orbán and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The government’s illiberal measures complicate Brussels’s decision on Georgia’s EU candidacy.

carnegieendowment.org

The recording of this morning's midweek briefing is now available. Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joined NEST Centre's Katia Glod to discuss Armenia’s shifting foreign policy, its evolving ties with Russia, and what this means for the South Caucasus balance. youtu.be/Py10ijk-wH4

Russia's shrinking leverage in Armenia

YouTube video by NEST Centre

youtu.be

Join this week's 30-min briefing: 'Russia’s shrinking leverage in Armenia' 9 April | 16:00 CET (10:00 EST) Thomas de Waal (@tomdewaal.bsky.social) joins NEST Centre's Katia Glod to unpack how Moscow is responding as Yerevan shifts towards the EU & US. Register: zoom.us/webinar/regi...

I am hugely looking forward to talking to Rena Effendi at the Frontline Club in London on April 22 about her wonderful film, Searching for Satyrus about looking for a butterfly and the father she never knew and traveling to Armenia, the other side of the conflict divide. Come along! lnkd.in/gJpNecA9

carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat... Stefan Lehne today: EU foreign policy is dysfunctional, it's time to fold the EEAS into the Commission.

Time to Merge the Commission and EEAS

The EU is structurally incapable of reacting to today’s foreign policy crises. The union must fold the EEAS into the European Commission and create a security council better prepared to take action on...

carnegieendowment.org

A lovely man and a great Russia scholar. Very sad news.

UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies@uclssees.bsky.social · 6mo ago

It is with great sadness that we announce the death of our dear colleague and friend, Dr Peter Duncan. Professor Simon Dixon pays tribute to him here: www.ucl.ac.uk/arts-humanit...

This piece by my Berlin colleague Alexandra Prokopenko is essential reading on Russia. The Russian economy is in a slow death spiral, bankrupting itself on fuelling the Ukraine war--and yet the leadership is not changing course, as it believes everyone else is also failing.

The Economist@economist.com · 6mo ago

Alexandra Prokopenko wonders how much longer it can go on metabolising its own muscle tissue

This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan. europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...

Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out

Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.

europe-inside-out.simplecast.com

I had stopped advertising our Akram Aylisli event tomorrow evening as it was sold out but they have now moved us to a bigger room. Come along if you can! (ignore the banner here) www.thersa.org/events/2026/...

The unquiet past: memory, conflict and the writer’s voice

A special live music and reading event dedicated to Akram Aylisli, the Nobel Prize-nominated Azerbaijani writer whose novel Stone Dreams ignited international debate on Armenia and Azerbaijan.

thersa.org

🆕 | A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europolis, Where Europe Ends

A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

carnegieendowment.org

Europolis, an evocative Romanian novel from 1933 about a Danube delta town, has much to tell us about Europe's real and imagined discontents. Real "decay" in Europe is about closing off cultural and mercantile exchange My piece for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europolis, Where Europe Ends

A prophetic Romanian novel about a town at the mouth of the Danube carries a warning: Europe decays when it stops looking outwards. In a world of increasing insularity, the EU should heed its warning.

carnegieendowment.org

❔ | In return for a trade deal & the release of prisoners, Washington has lifted sanctions on Belarus. Should Europeans follow suit, using their leverage to extract concessions from Lukashenko, or continue to isolate a key Kremlin ally? Read experts' takes: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?

In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

carnegieendowment.org

Delighted to contribute to @carnegieendowment.org ’s #TakingThePulse on whether Europe should reengage with #Belarus. An interesting set of diverse views: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat....

Taking the Pulse: Is It Time for Europe to Reengage With Belarus?

In return for a trade deal and the release of political prisoners, the United States has lifted sanctions on Belarus, breaking the previous Western policy consensus. Should Europeans follow suit, usin...

carnegieendowment.org

Viktor Orban is using new and old methods to keep power in the upcoming Hungarian election, from handouts to AI fabrications. It's a laboratory of sorts for other future European elections. By the remarkable Zsuzsanna Szelényi for @carnegieeurope.bsky.social carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

New Tricks and AI Tools in Hungary’s High-Stakes Election

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán faces his most serious challenge yet in the April 2026 parliamentary elections. All of Europe should monitor the Fidesz campaign: It will use unprecedented method...

carnegieendowment.org

The hyper-personalized global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptive former ally determined to break the rules, argues @tomdewaal.bsky.social. carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...

Europe Faces the Gone-Rogue Doctrine

The hyper-personalized new version of global sphere-of-influence politics that Donald Trump wants will fail, as it did for Russia. But, whether it fails or not, Europe must still deal with a disruptiv...

carnegieendowment.org