Super excited about our Tech and Public Policy fellows!

'Raise Doubts'??? C'mon, @nytimes.com How about: - 'Show Otherwise' - 'Counter His Claim' - 'Tell Different Story' - 'Prove Claim False' - 'Don't Match Claims' - 'Show Another Lie' [ok, too far.] Etc. Headline gives him 100% underserved benefit of the doubt.

The Roberts Court were not just getting rid of racial districting with Callais - they were eliminating the last legal requirement to provide reasonably representative maps. The die was cast with their decision to accept partisan gerrymandering in 2019. Callais was just the nail in the coffin.

JD Vance personally invited Pope Leo to the U.S. 250th celebration on the 4th of July. Today the Vatican announced Leo will be spending the day with migrants instead.

Pope Leo Will Spend July 4 Visiting Migrant Crossing Island

Pope Leo has spoken out against the treatment of migrants in the United States several times over the last year.

time.com

Republican Senator Thom Tillis says Stephen Miller is like Grima Wormtongue from Lord of the Rings and Kristi Noem is like Delores Umbridge from Harry Potter.

Just say the government is lying. The goal of journalism should be to inform, not gaslight.

Politico@politico.com · 9mo ago

A battle over the truth erupts after deadly Minneapolis shooting

Alex Pretti’s coworkers take a moment of silence this morning

I hate the « bad advice » framing but let’s take what we can get

Tom Clark@tomsclark.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Oklahoma is the state with probably the highest, most uniform support for Trump.

ICE is now responsible for 66% of the homicides in Minneapolis this year.

My Stop the Presses newsletter calls for a dramatic change of tactics by major media to produce "radically truthful” news that defeats the right-wing disinformation industry. Right now, the media are getting slam-dunked by fascist liars. Here’s a thread with my 10 main points. 🧵🧵🧵

How to build a radically truthful news outlet

The old ways don’t work. Time to declare war on the liars.

stopthepresses.news

Your cat when you're choking to death in your apartment

7. The media industry is both unwilling and unable to cover this level of corruption rigorously. Treating Trump’s corruption scandals like those of previous presidents would make outlets appear “biased” and strain the resources of an industry that has been contracting over the past 25 years.

This is several days old. But amidst so much else id missed it. That’s a stunning number. No wonder they about-faced. Reminder of the power of consumers in oligarch era, not subject to the same kind of targeting.

Candidate ideology helps! It is not a cure-all - party label matters a ton! But candidate ideology helps roughly as much as incumbency (and that's even using the NYTimes' highly imperfect measure). Here's my take: open.substack.com/pub/michaela...

Moderation Revisited: Still helps!

I’ve written on the “Does moderation matter?” debate.

open.substack.com

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 12mo ago

Look. It would be great if there was one simple trick for winning elections. But 'just be more moderate' isn't it. In fact, you can use the NYT's exact method to 'prove' a 'Progressive Advantage' of +1.4 pts. This piece shows what's really going on: funded candidates do better than unfunded ones.

Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 12mo ago

My response to the NYT’s “moderate to win” argument: The data shows the strategy is tapped out. Being seen as moderate by voters doesn’t boost votes, replacing every progressive with moderates would net 0 seats, and the graveyard of defeated D incumbents if full of moderates, not progressives.

Hard to do conversation justice in social media. All agree moderates run ahead of president of their party. Question is by how much. Be sure that you look at effects in swing districts - effects in uncompetitive districts muddy the waters. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 12mo ago

I'm trying to digest the editorial, but I keep coming back to this plot & the simple statistical mistake it's making. **OF course** moderate Democrats outperformed Harris in purple seats, purple-seat voters don't like progressive presidential candidates! The comparison artificially inflates strength

Actual waste, fraud, & abuse

Phil Lewis@phillewis.bsky.social · last yr.

FBI, DEA and other law enforcement recorded in Georgetown walking around “There’s not much going on around here… maybe they’re practicing”

We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/o... This administration is stuck in the past on China

Opinion | We Warned About the First China Shock. The Next One Will Be Worse.

nytimes.com

Musk’s party unlikely to go anywhere. But if he runs in contested states - that helps Ds (as Kevin says). If he runs in red states - Ds will lose anyway or this opens a path up (+hard to be worse than current Rs). Muskies help Ds in blue states too! (They won’t need it). Take the win, people.

Kevin Collins@kwcollins.bsky.social · last yr.

3) taking 10% from Republicans doesn’t win you 10% of house races, it increases Democratic win percents

Some thoughts on Elon's new party michaelabailey2.substack.com/p/dear-elon-...

Dear Elon: About that new party...

Elon Musk raised some eyebrows with his tweet about starting a new party -- with a super legit Twitter poll to back it up, no less.

michaelabailey2.substack.com

I agree - interesting possibilities here bsky.app/profile/trul...

Jennifer N. Victor@jenvictor.bsky.social · last yr.

You are right to be highly skeptical of third party movements. But this strategy, I have to admit, is really interesting. I have many follow up questions. 🙋‍♀️ wapo.st/3YGenxI

Good stuff from Ned Foley The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power open.substack.com/pub/edwardbf...

The Electoral Connection to Constraining Executive Power

Only Congress can constrain an autocratic President, and only electoral reform will enable Congress to perform this essential constitutional function.

open.substack.com

So much for “Trade wars are good, and easy to win!“

A cause worth taking up in earnest, even in the likely event of “failure.” www.offmessage.net/p/rein-in-tr...

Rein In Trump's Pardon Power

Before it's too late... And presidential immunity, while we're at it.... Take it to Congress, to states, even to the streets.

offmessage.net

Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected]. Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.

this is so frigging insane. we're worried about hardened Japanese tourist/business traveler radicals destabilizing the the US during their visits?

Jeffrey J. Hall@mrjeffu.bsky.social · last yr.

Japanese netizens are shocked by a tweet from the US Embassy declaring that Japanese people applying for non-immigrant visas must provide information on all social media accounts they have used in the last 5 years [or their visas could be rejected]. Some are comparing it to China & North Korea.

Interesting. A few thoughts/questions 1/N

Adam Bonica@adambonica.bsky.social · 2y ago

Our findings using CES data strongly affirm the post-election analysis and conclusions of @mikepod.bsky.social. Non-voters, particularly registered ones, lean Dem. The "high turnout hurts Dems" narrative isn't supported by the evidence and basing strategy on flawed ideas about non-voters is risky.

Very cool summary of the state of polling from @jameskanag.bsky.social www.focaldata.com/blog/bi-foca...

Bi_Focal #21: Four lessons from a year in research

Explore key lessons from 2024, including innovations in opinion polling, demographic shifts, and the rise of zero-sum thinking. Learn how we expect MRP, 'wisdom of the crowds,' and qualitative researc...

focaldata.com

Happy to see this review of my book from @markpackuk.bsky.social -- and, as always, eager to hear if you have thoughts/suggestions/ideas theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/polling-at...

Polling at a crossroads: is this book the way forward?

Welcome to the 151st edition of The Week in Polls (TWIP) which takes a look at a new(-ish) book about both the problems with and possible solutions for modern political polling.

theweekinpolls.substack.com