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@kleinman.bsky.social

I like to post and see posts and I cover state politics. Subscribe to Radio Free America, the political newsletter that's the opposite of Axios https://heartlandsignal.com/newsletters/

I’m not a “Europe is hopelessly poor” person nor a “GDP explains everything” person but tbh whenever I see someone complain that EVERYTHING in MODERN LIFE has gotten MONOTONICALLY WORSE there‘s a good chance they’re in the UK which has in fact been in and out of recession for 10 years

btw if you’re ticked at AIPAC for whatever reason them spending a maximum amount of money to barely lose is ideal, 10/10, just as a pure matter of don’t-know-ball and forward outcome for them as an organization. this cycle has been catastrophic for them purely in terms of inputs and outputs

I have no idea if this is what's going on or not but the results tonight are all consistent with my broad belief that Democratic primary voters are scared to death of losing again and as much as they like left/progressive ideas they are fucking terrified of losing again

Regardless of how it turns out NO HE DIDN’T. It’s like saying I have more fingers on my left hand after counting 8 digits from left to right with a ring finger and a pinky still to report.

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I personally need to be more skeptical of internal candidate/PAC polling. When I've passed on some, I always see it with a competitor, which isn't fun. But there was some polling that made it look like Stevens was down 15+ points that really bent coverage.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 14h ago

Looks like a 10-15 point polling miss in Michigan regardless of who wins. And people have been writing a lot of electability takes using this data. It’s dangerous out there folks be safe

it does feel like Democratic primary voters have a reasonably good sense of preferring left/progressive candidates unless (a) they really seem like they're gonna lose the general or (b) the vibes are off not perfect obviously (I know what you're going to say) but in range

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From Zachary Donnini: “This is narrowing at a rapid rate and will come down to Wayne. Stevens is vastly outperforming expectations across a lot of whiter, less urban areas. El-Sayed exceeding his targets in Kent, Washtenaw, and Oakland. Stevens exceeding elsewhere.”

Republican power grabs in Kansas and Missouri are going down in flames with 18-25% of votes reported so far. Missouri's Amendment 4 aimed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments practically impossible. Kansas' Amendment 1 was designed to flip the state Supreme Court to ban abortion

It’s ultimately a drop in a bucket, but I do occasionally think about how much healthier the conversation around Israel-Palestine could have been these past few years if Andy Levin was still in office, instead of kicked out by Haley Stevens and $4.5m AIPAC dollars.

Subscribe to Radio Free America (link in bio)@kleinman.bsky.social · 16h ago

In 2022 Haley Stevens moved pretty aggressively to the right on Israel to defeat a progressive Jewish member of Congress after redistricting made her old district more Republican. Tonight, the bill came due.