OPINION TODAY featured podcast — @will-jordan.bsky.social joins us to break down new research on the growing divide between active and passive news consumers. Then we discuss the rise of biometric security with Gideon Christian. (@maristpoll.bsky.social) opiniontoday.substack.com/i/180075531/...

Really enjoyed this - thanks for having me. So much of what we see now is just partisan sorting. That’s why it really stands out to me when a behavior actually cuts across party lines. This distinction on news consumption is one of those cases:

Marist Poll@maristpoll.bsky.social · 8mo ago

There's a big difference between passive and active news consumers! This week, we're joined by GSG's VP of Research, @will-jordan.bsky.social, to discuss these trends in news consumption and what it means for civic awareness and political engagement. maristpoll.com/podcast

It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured. But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters

It’s fair that voters who shifted hardest right in '24 -- e.g. low-propensity Hispanic voters -- probably turned out at lower rates in NJ/VA, so the “persuasion” angle is obscured. But this Echelon Insights chart makes a key point: data shows Trump right now is *weaker* with low-propensity voters

Pres Obama is singularly popular in politics. Not every Dem has his charisma, but let's learn from him: • Healthcare #1 issue • Anti-war • All-of-above energy strategy • Working-class jobs (Detroit bailout) • Follow public on cultural topics (marriage equality, border)

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 9mo ago

Zohran Mamdani has a higher favorability rating than Donald Trump, JD Vance or Chuck Schumer. The most popular political figures in America are Barack Obama and Bernie Sanders www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-d...

Pre-election prediction markets gave Sherrill 5% odds of a margin exceeding 14 points. The odds of this didn't change Sep-Nov despite Trump's approval rating dropping 5 points during that period.

I continue to love this simple survey question as a way to divide the public. It cuts across partisanship -- Rs may hate "the media" but they have engaged/attentive voters on favored platforms (Fox/X) just like Ds.

House battleground very different in 2026 vs 2018 '18 Rs defend 65 seats @ Trump+10/bluer Ds defend 30 @ Clinton+10/redder '26 Rs defend 30 seats @ Trump+10/bluer Ds defend 62 @ Harris+10/redder BUT '18 Ds need 24 (37% of R defensive seats) '26 Ds need 3 (10% of R defensive seats)

In-party disaffection for Democrats is coming from the left, where voters are still likely to vote for Democrats in elections. But among Republicans, it’s moderates and conservatives who rate the GOP image worse. That’s a bigger problem, because those voters are likelier to cross over and vote Dem.

G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · last yr.

You may have seen polls recently showing the Democratic Party's favorability ratings are near historic lows. That's true. But Dems still lead on the generic ballot, and ratings are not predictive of electoral performance this far ahead of a midterm. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democratic...

This is a great question to ask. As someone left of center, if you think the answer is the second one, think hard about what needs to change or accept you believe there is basically no chance of Democrats controlling the Senate and passing real laws or nominating judges for the next decade or so.

This new Navigator tracking survey has Democrats taking the lead over Trump in H2H on taxes, inflation, and the economy for the first time in I’m not sure how long (a while). Trump led on all 3 in late February.

Enjoyed this piece from @robflaherty.bsky.social Recently we have been studying a similar concept to the “opt in” and “opt out” voters in our polling, and I think it’s incredibly useful for understanding how current trends in political behavior and media habits are related…

A striking set of results from Navigator Research. A lot of the time simple language tweaks make little difference, but here, voters are much more comfortable agreeing with a position once it criticizes the status quo.

To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.

To hold the power to pass major legislation over next decade, Democrats need to run the sort of candidates and be the sort of party that can win/defend Senate seats in every swing state and win seats in Trump+10/+15 states. It’s about necessity as much as opportunity.

Really seems British voters like to pretend to pollsters they live in a democracy with a proportional representation system until there’s an election and then, eventually, they voter for a party that can win in their constituency. Epistemologically difficult to read the mood.

Harris was perceived as more liberal than Biden, Clinton, or Obama had been when they ran. And while people saw Trump as more conservative than they had previously, they were still closer ideologically to him (1.62 points away) than Harris (2.06). cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/Ideology/

Striking parallel between Trump and Liz Truss in terms of the power of economics/markets to turn even one’s own partisans against you. Trump isn’t losing any support over his performative cruelty towards immigrants, but is rapidly losing Republicans over economic policy, stock market, inflation etc

At the regional/county level, the 2023->2025 swing is very similar to the 2020->2024 swing. (Notice Crawford and Harris both did relatively well in suburban WOW)

So far there is not a clear relationship between special election turnout and Democratic over performance. If anything higher salience/turnout specials like FL-01/06 have been better for Democrats than the average (average swing is +11%D so far in 2025)

Incredible stat: the electorate in FL-01 and FL-06 skewed Republican by +28 and +21 in registration, yet the GOP only won by 14 points. This isn’t just Dem turnout: this is persuasion. Trump is losing ground with GOP voters, and Independents broke hard for Democrats.

While voter ID passed in Wisconsin the “yes” vote (62.7%) was narrowly under the lowest support ever recorded by Wisconsin’s premier pollster, suggesting some mix of: -very lib electorate -real support lower than polls -thermostatic backlash -voters do love 2 vote “no”

The Musk triple threat: - universal name ID/salience - infuriates liberal base, but not equally adored by conservative base - backlash with marginal Republican voters

Trump coalition relied on new support from apolitical/“disengaged” voters - if he still boasted outsize support from that ilk, a poll like this would be a place to look. Evidence so far points to the opposite: tariffs/Elon agenda excites the online fanboys but worries normies.

Will Jordan@will-jordan.bsky.social · last yr.

New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting

New Gallup issue approval data - economy now one of Trump’s worst issues, at -18, 59% disapprove Unique/noisy data bc it’s all adults (not just voters) and RDD (all phone, traditional), but these points in some ways make the very bad econ ratings more interesting

This was a great slogan

Search interest in “Tesla boycott” and “Tesla takedown

Rising share of Democratic rank and file want congressional Ds to oppose Trump as much as possible, not find common ground Jan 46% preferred opposition Feb 65% Now 70% And Democrats who feel this way overwhelmingly say party could be doing more on this front More: www.cbsnews.com/news/opinion...

For the party to be truly relevant and have a shot at passing an agenda, it also needs to become the sort of party that can compete in places like Ohio and Texas. It’s always been true but was more complicated when there was more variance in politics (the odd survivor in MT or WV, etc)

Will Jordan@will-jordan.bsky.social · last yr.

Finally getting toward a decent visualization of why “reach” Senate races are so important. With Democrats having seen so much success in purple America, there is no where else to go.

Finally getting toward a decent visualization of why “reach” Senate races are so important. With Democrats having seen so much success in purple America, there is no where else to go.