Wilson Chan

@wilsonchan.bsky.social

Hydroclimatologist UKCEH | PhD Uni Reading | Climate change and hydrological extremes | Views my own 🇭🇰🇬🇧

After record low July rainfall, what's next for UK river flows? Below normal to exceptionally low flows across England, Wales & NE Scotland will continue with record lows anticipated for August & drought impacts into the autumn. 🎥 Dr Katie Facer-Childs with the latest UK Hydrological Outlook.

The drought affecting many parts of the UK is 'remarkable' for how quickly it has progressed, Jamie Hannaford, head of water resources and drought at UKCEH says. Much of central, southern and eastern areas of England are now in drought, joining North Wales and the Upper Severn. 🧪 1/

Map of England showing drought status in different regions

Wednesday sees the peak of the heat this week, with temperatures likely reaching 35 Celsius in eastern England📈 This would mark the 7th day of 2026 when the UK has recorded 35°C or higher. Prior to this year, the record was 5 days of ≥35°C, set in 1976 and 2020🌡️

A map of the UK showing expected maximum temperatures on Wednesday 29 July 2026. These range from 35 Celsius in southeast and eastern England to 15 Celsius in northern Scotland

It was inevitable, wasn't it🙄 Of course the Telegraph would run with something like this👇 So let's remove some of the rose-tinted spectacles and also look at some of that data comparing 1976 with modern heat waves Because the 1976 nostalgia porn is wearing a bit thin at this stage 🧵1/23

Telegraph headiline:

"Heatwave hysterics wouldn't have lasted a day in 1976", overlaid with a bold “MONK DEBUNKED” stamp.

Happy birthday to the heatwave of 1976 which began today 50 years ago, peaking at 35.9°C. If a comparable heatwave happened in the current climate it would be 3-4°C hotter, peaking at 38-39°C. And the actual forecast is for temperatures of 38-39°C in the next few days with a red heatwave warning.

The summer of 1976 translated into a warmer climate.

The UK Hydrological Summary for May 2026 has been published: 🌡️ While showery and changeable in the first three weeks, May was ultimately defined by an exceptional period of heat in the last 10 days. UK rainfall ~78% of average. River flows normal to exceptionally low across most of the UK. 🧪 1/

Maps of UK showing summarising river flows in May 2026 and March to May 2026

Communicating changes in the intensity of UK heatwaves Global warming of ‘just’ 1°C does not necessarily sound like a problem. But in the UK, the hottest summer days are warming much faster than typical summer days, changing our experience of heatwaves rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

Communicating changes in the intensity of UK heatwaves

Communicating how a global warming of ‘just’ 1°C affects people is challenging. The hottest UK summer days have warmed more than 3 times faster than the rate of global warming in the past century, ca...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com

From drought to downpour, 2025 brought the UK whiplash weather 🌦️ New on our Counting the Earth podcast, we delve into the UK's weather extremes. After a dry spring & four heatwaves we had significant rainfall later in the year. By December, total rainfall reached ~90% of the UK average. 1/

The Rainfall Observers Over the past three centuries, thousands of people across the British & Irish Isles have recorded rainfall, often every day for decades. Here we recognise some of the individuals who made particularly important contributions. rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

The rainfall observers

Over the past three centuries, thousands of people across the British and Irish Isles have regularly recorded rainfall, often every day for decades. Their efforts allow us to reconstruct long-term tr...

rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com