Josh Zingher
@zingherpolisci.bsky.social
Political Scientist. Author of “Political Choice in a Polarized America” @OUP. Dad. Sauna enthusiast. Crossword solver. Powerlifter. Cyclist. ✡️ ∞ Views are mine alone. RT!=endorsement
Let's see how the 1946 midterm went for Truman and the Dems... Yeah. Seems pretty bad when the incumbent has really low approval. * bear in mind that due to polarization over time, things being THIS good is rather unlikely. but they should still be very good.
Josh Zingher@zingherpolisci.bsky.social · last wk.After a slight polling bump, we've had a series of completely brutal polls for Trump over the past week. He's currently sitting at 36.5%/60.5% per FiftyPlusOne. If this holds, it will be the lowest approval for a president heading into a Midterm since Truman in 1946!
As @jonathanbernstein.bsky.social said yesterday:
Christopher Webb@cwebbonline.com · 6d agoSome really encouraging Senate polls… 📍Georgia 🔵 Jon Ossoff: 56% 🔴 Mike Collins: 43% 📍North Carolina 🔵 Roy Cooper: 53% 🔴 Michael Whatley: 44% 📍Ohio 🔵 Sherrod Brown: 53% 🔴 Jon Husted: 45% 📍Iowa 🔵 Josh Turek: 50% 🔴 Ashley Hinson: 46% Keep organizing. Keep fighting.
People will point out that the generic ballot isn't as pro-Dem as one might expect given Trump approval, but i strongly suspect 1) people will break towards the Dems in the end given their disapproval of Trump, and 2.) Dems will enjoy a *big* turnout advantage given their engaged, educated base.
After a slight polling bump, we've had a series of completely brutal polls for Trump over the past week. He's currently sitting at 36.5%/60.5% per FiftyPlusOne. If this holds, it will be the lowest approval for a president heading into a Midterm since Truman in 1946!
People hate when you integrate AND resegregate the army, what gives
Josh Zingher@zingherpolisci.bsky.social · last wk.After a slight polling bump, we've had a series of completely brutal polls for Trump over the past week. He's currently sitting at 36.5%/60.5% per FiftyPlusOne. If this holds, it will be the lowest approval for a president heading into a Midterm since Truman in 1946!
Lots of plausible outcomes in November, but people are still underestimating the chances of a massive Dem landslide.
Josh Zingher@zingherpolisci.bsky.social · last wk.After a slight polling bump, we've had a series of completely brutal polls for Trump over the past week. He's currently sitting at 36.5%/60.5% per FiftyPlusOne. If this holds, it will be the lowest approval for a president heading into a Midterm since Truman in 1946!
After a slight polling bump, we've had a series of completely brutal polls for Trump over the past week. He's currently sitting at 36.5%/60.5% per FiftyPlusOne. If this holds, it will be the lowest approval for a president heading into a Midterm since Truman in 1946!
Authoritarian societies are sometimes quite good at the technical aspects of scientific advancement (the USSR, for example, had many achievements) but are absolutely awful at incorporating these types of technical advancements in ways that push society forward. Musk is a great example of why. 1/3
Taylor Noakes@taylornoakes.com · last wk.Words cannot describe how much I despise this person’s contempt for how hard real scientists work It’s the kind of attitude you can only get from inheriting a fortune from an Apartheid era emerald mine finance.yahoo.com/sectors/heal...
Authoritarian societies are sometimes quite good at the technical aspects of scientific advancement (the USSR, for example, had many achievements) but are absolutely awful at incorporating these types of technical advancements in ways that push society forward. Musk is a great example of why. 1/3
Taylor Noakes@taylornoakes.com · last wk.Words cannot describe how much I despise this person’s contempt for how hard real scientists work It’s the kind of attitude you can only get from inheriting a fortune from an Apartheid era emerald mine finance.yahoo.com/sectors/heal...
"We won't make special meals for the kids. They'll eat what we eat" i scream, right after begging a toddler to eat a bite of a grilled cheese with the crusts cut off and cut into triangles but "not the big triangles."
Zach Weinersmith@zachweinersmith.bsky.social · last wk.Hey parents of bsky: What are some theories of parenting you were very confident in right up until you had your own kids?
There is no way to come back from this that doesn't involve a whole bunch of people going to prison for a very long time. This is a half step from declaring domestic groups "terrorists" and using the military to unilaterally kill them. This shit is incredibly anti-American/rule of law/Constitutional
Matthew Hay Brown@matthewhaybrown.bsky.social · last wk.67 boat strikes 221 people killed EXCLUSIVE: Operation Southern Spear has not reduced the volume, availability, purity or price of cocaine arriving in the U.S., according to an internal DEA assessment and a closed-door Pentagon briefing for senators, and has made enforcement more difficult
My kids found and raise a half dozen monarch caterpillars. We released the last of them yesterday. The kids were over the moon with the whole thing--highly recommended. The process of caterpillar into butterfly is indistinguishable from magic imo.
But impeachment is just a distraction, most Americans just care about ‘affordability’, and a third of the electorate wants more of these crimes.
Josh Zingher@zingherpolisci.bsky.social · last wk.There is no way to come back from this that doesn't involve a whole bunch of people going to prison for a very long time. This is a half step from declaring domestic groups "terrorists" and using the military to unilaterally kill them. This shit is incredibly anti-American/rule of law/Constitutional
There is no way to come back from this that doesn't involve a whole bunch of people going to prison for a very long time. This is a half step from declaring domestic groups "terrorists" and using the military to unilaterally kill them. This shit is incredibly anti-American/rule of law/Constitutional
Matthew Hay Brown@matthewhaybrown.bsky.social · last wk.67 boat strikes 221 people killed EXCLUSIVE: Operation Southern Spear has not reduced the volume, availability, purity or price of cocaine arriving in the U.S., according to an internal DEA assessment and a closed-door Pentagon briefing for senators, and has made enforcement more difficult
People have debated the nature of the vibecession and why economic mood is more pessimistic than the traditional indicators would suggest. I think an underrated part of the story is being gaslight constantly about how our major recent innovations, crypto, sports betting, and AI are advancements. 1/x
I think it is hard to have a positive view of the economy/society/political system when so many of the key actors have lost any semblance of a moral compass. Deep down, people know these are all scams. AI might have some societal value, but crypto and betting certainly do not. People aren't dumb 4/x
I know people are concerned about political corruption, but to me, the problem is so much deeper than the political system. We've let all these exercises in predation not only go unchecked but encouraged at every turn by institutions that should know better, everything from Congress to ESPN. 3/x
People have debated the nature of the vibecession and why economic mood is more pessimistic than the traditional indicators would suggest. I think an underrated part of the story is being gaslight constantly about how our major recent innovations, crypto, sports betting, and AI are advancements. 1/x
I think we've been sleeping on just how central Orban/Fidesz were in supporting the radical right mediascape across the entire West, everything from podcast bros to CPAC. Deposing Orban effectively removed the central node of this vast network.
Olga Nesterova@onestpress.onestnetwork.com · 2w agoI guess Russian transfers stopped?
You cannot watch Fox News for hours a day, year over year, and expect to keep your brain intact. I'd guess Trump's perception about how Iran is going is much more strongly influenced by Fox and Friends coverage than by actual intelligence reports.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w agoTrump claims California has "brownouts and blackouts every weekend"
You cannot watch Fox News for hours a day, year over year, and expect to keep your brain intact. I'd guess Trump's perception about how Iran is going is much more strongly influenced by Fox and Friends coverage than by actual intelligence reports.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 2w agoTrump claims California has "brownouts and blackouts every weekend"
If you're not sick of me and my book yet, here we are on the New Books Network www.google.com/url?q=https:...
Julia R. Azari, "Backlash Presidents: From Transformative to Reactionary Leaders in American History" (Princeton UP, 2025) - New Books Network
google.com
The way I understand the politics of the part 15 years: social movements arose out of the detritus of neoliberalism to contest oligarchy, patriarchy and white supremacy. But, the contest was largely discursive. The fascist backlash has used hard power to try to shut it all down.
The fascists have used hard power to try to flip the culture—and have largely been unsuccessful. They have mostly lost the culture wars. But, their monopolization of media and tech, and their control of our corrupt political system, has given them a lot of power to suppress dissent.
One thing that people don't appreciate is just how much high engagement voters have moved towards the Democrats over the past 12 years. Not that long ago, Republicans held an advantage in off years because their voters would show up more consistently. Today, the advantage has flipped. 1/3
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 2w agoLikely voters for this year's midterms lean more Democratic than registered voters or all adults, a change from last cycle. Democrats are +9 among self-described likely voters in this month's Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, vs +7 among RVs. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-22...
We are getting ready to launch the National Survey Panel at the Survey Research Center at ISR. We are hoping to provide an avenue to keep rigorous scientific survey research available to the community. #realvoices,#respectedresearch @um-src.bsky.social
There's plenty of evidence that educational polarization has changed the electoral calculus in important ways. One of Trump's greatest strengths as a politician is his ability to mobilize infrequent voters. He was very successful at this 3x. However, it isn't clear this ability is transferrable. 3/3
