Acacia Pepler

@acaciapepler.bsky.social

Climate scientist interested in how weather systems and their impacts are changing in a changing climate

13. Hence our dismal conclusion: rather than finding that LLMs free us to do a better job of what we were doing before they came along, they shift scientific incentives (and the playing field of academic competition) in ways that compel us to do more and more, faster and faster, less and less well.

Moving this discussion out of Gavin's replies. NOAA is about to update their precip frequency atlas to account for global warming non-stationarity (more rain!) In practice, what difference might that make to infrastructure design, insurance, legal compliance, etc? DISCUSS!

Cristi Proistosescu@cristiproist.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Another important point is that NOAA should be releasing Atlas 15 (modulo Dept of Commerce shenanigans) soon. Atlas 15 does allow for non-stationarity in precipitation distributions, for both current and past precip (Volume 1) and future precept (Volume 2) water.noaa.gov/about/atlas15

As someone who cares about climate and the environment, it's easy to feel cynical about the future. As an antidote, I highly recommend When There Are Wolves Again, a fantastic book which shows how incremental steps really could lead to a better world in our lifetimes ❤️

You can set your watch to autumn headlines declaring a catastrophic El Niño or La Niña. In this article, I throw a bucket of cold water on the heated headlines and reflect on why autumn forecasts of Nino3.4 are to be read with caution. theconversation.com/why-the-phra...

Why the phrase “Super El Nino” makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes

Media reports have suggested a “super” El Niño is looming. The problem is, these autumn forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

theconversation.com

It took a loooooong time but it's finally out! We argue that the winter storm track isn't actually "shifting south". Rather, the cool season drying in southeast Australia is linked to a weakening of the northern edge (while the core stays put & intensifies). link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Is the Australian storm track shifting south? - Climate Dynamics

Climate Dynamics - Cool season rainfall has declined in recent decades in many areas of the southern hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes including parts of southern Australia. This has been...

link.springer.com

I know it’s intentional but we should stop calling everything AI, lumping useful machine learning techniques for science with large language models that tech companies are trying to cram into everything.

AFP News Agency@en.afp.com · 9mo ago

AI to track icebergs adrift at sea. British scientists say a world-first AI tool to catalogue and track icebergs as they break apart into smaller chunks could fill a "major blind spot" in predicting climate change u.afp.com/S2sA

One small highlight of 2025: I managed to read 133 books, my highest total since 2016 (not counting all the books read to children). Mostly SFF of course! I suspect I'll read fewer next year, as it feels like time to reread LotR.

Given how much money we have to pay journals to publish papers, you would think they could at least manage to hire support staff with reading comprehension or customer support who actually answer emails *grumble mutter whinge*