@ada-w-yan.bsky.social

New paper! "Modelling the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 14 days of infection" - we use Approximate Bayesian Computation and the theory of stochastic boundary hitting to provide a possible explanation for infectious doses in challenge data. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Modelling the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first 14 days of infection

Interpreting the viral mechanism of SARS-CoV-2 based on the human body level is critical for developing more efficient interventions. Due to the limit…

sciencedirect.com

New preprint! We use pooled Ct values from mosquito surveillance to estimate West Nile virus prevalence—without binarising the data. Joint work with Ian Marchinton, Joseph R. Fauver & James Hay. Check it out: www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...

Tracking West Nile virus dynamics using viral loads from trapped mosquitoes

West Nile virus (WNV) persists in an enzootic cycle between birds and mosquitoes. Human infections are incidental and usually sub-clinical with some cases of neuroinvasive disease. Mitigation relies on surveillance to guide decision making, including RT-qPCR testing pools of mosquitoes. Cycle threshold (Ct) values from these pools\---|semi-quantitative proxies for viral load\---|are binarised to estimate WNV prevalence in mosquitoes as a proxy for human risk. We showed that Ct value variation in Colorado and Nebraska (2022-2024) cannot be explained by laboratory factors, suggesting a role for biological and epidemiological mechanisms. We developed a multiscale model linking pooled Ct values to mosquito viral kinetics, bird-to-mosquito transmission, and seasonal force of infection. A novel method estimating WNV prevalence using pooled Ct values outperformed existing approaches at high prevalence. We demonstrate the importance of treating environmental viral load samples as quantitative, as binarising masks key information for arbovirus surveillance and risk mitigation. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Wellcome Trust Early Career Award, grant 225001/Z/22/Z UNMC VCR

biorxiv.org

📢 New preprint! We estimate the serial interval of scabies and characterise its transmission dynamics in the Netherlands over >10 yrs —offering new insights into the spread of a neglected but re-emerging disease. (1/4) 🔗 papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.... #IDSky #EpiSky #AcademicSky #NTD

Estimation of the Epidemiological Characteristics of Scabies

Introduction: Scabies is a contagious skin disease caused by the infestation of the skin by the Sarcopes scabiei mite, causing an itchy rash. Scabies affects ov

papers.ssrn.com

New Preprint! There has been a lot of work on models coupling behaviour with disease dynamics, typically (and understandably) agnostic about the exact behaviour. Here we consider specifically testing and isolation, providing mathematical and numerical analyses. arxiv.org/abs/2504.02488

A Behaviour and Disease Model of Testing and Isolation

There has been interest in the interactions between infectious disease dynamics and behaviour for most of the history of mathematical epidemiology. This has included consideration of which mathematica...

arxiv.org

We are advertising a PhD position! The project will develop mathematical models for influenza infection within the host, incorporating the effects of antiviral treatment. Domestic and international applicants welcome.

IDDjobs@iddjobs.org · 2y ago

PhD position (Melbourne, Australia) Mathematical modelling of antivirals against influenza virus infection with @ada-w-yan.bsky.social @jmccaw.bsky.social at University of Melbourne More details: http://iddjobs.org/jobs/2268

[Please share] We're hiring a postdoc in Mathematical Biology at The University of Melbourne! Come and work with us on a collaborative project looking at how to predict biological behaviour across multiple scales. Feel free to reach out, details are here: jobs.unimelb.edu.au/en/job/91913...

Details : Research Fellow in Multiscale Mathematical Modelling of Cell Biology : The University of Melbourne

Careers at The University of Melbourne

jobs.unimelb.edu.au

The last several years have driven home the feedback between activity & disease transmission. We wanted to know if we could find general rules about how activity might change as vaccination reduces disease burden. We were surprised … follow along 🧵

Existence and stability of equilibria in infectious disease dynamics with behavioral feedback

Mathematical models have provided a general framework for understanding the dynamics and control of infectious disease. Many compartmental models are limited in that they do not account for the range ...

journals.aps.org

Why understanding biology matters in bioinformatics One big lesson: RNA and protein levels aren’t always correlated. If you don’t know this, you might draw the wrong conclusions. 🧵👇

I'm hiring one summer research intern (BSc or MSc level) to work on some part of Bayesian workflow at Aalto (Finland). See my publication and talk list at users.aalto.fi/~ave/ for what we've been doing so far, and the summer topic would be related Apply at www.aalto.fi/en/aalto-sci...

How to Apply for the AScI International Summer Research Programme | Aalto University

How to apply to the AScI international summer research (internship) programme - The 2025 opened on January 7, 2025.

aalto.fi