Amy Fried
@asfried.bsky.social
Political scientist, kayaker Emeritus, UMaine Political Sightlines at https://amyfried.substack.com/ Books on how U.S. conservatives weaponized distrust, New England politics, professionalizing polling, and perceptions of public opinion as a resource
Granted, primary polling tends to be more fluid than general election polls, but this should make no one in Maine comfortable in relying on polls. (Not that they should have been!) It's essential to ACT on behalf of the candidates you support. #mepolitics
G Elliott Morris@gelliottmorris.com · 12h agoLooks like a 10-15 point polling miss in Michigan regardless of who wins. And people have been writing a lot of electability takes using this data. It’s dangerous out there folks be safe
Susan Collins thinks this is a good use of our money. #mepolitics
Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social · 15h agoBrown University has a widget that tracks the cost of the Iran war to American consumers (as contrasted to whatever the Pentagon is spending). Per-household cost now exceeds $600. iranwarcost.watson.brown.edu
The only election takes I think is worth having on this one is "wow, it's impressive that AES ran a close race (win or lose) with the spending disadvantage" and "the pollsters really got this wrong."
Whoever ends up winning the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan, I hope with little expectation that those who took seriously polls showing a rout for El-Sayed will think twice about relying on questionable and/or partisan polls.
Since this race hasn’t been finalized and Stevens might pull it out, could we hold off on election analysis that makes big pronouncements about the electorate? Is that too much to ask?
Steve Herman@newsguy.bsky.social · 4h agoThe Democratic Senate race in Michigan remains too close to call with Abdul El-Sayed clinging to a narrow lead over US Rep. Haley Stevens. www.freep.com/story/news/poli...
I’m telling you this as a political scientist. The person who is electable is the one who is elected. This can and does change over time. Any and all speculation about “electability” is either puffery or anxiety and is often both.
Julia Azari@juliaazari.bsky.social · 12h agoOne way to be safe is to never write an electability take
“Regardless of the eventual winner, the results of the Michigan Senate primary were a poor showing for the polls, with 3 of the 4 most recent nonpartisan surveys showing double-digit leads for Abdul El-Sayed. The fourth, which showed Haley Stevens leading by 7 percentage points, will also be off”
Update from Evan Reynolds
nytimes.com
Susan Collins announcing she'll vote against a controversial nominee is basically the moment it becomes clear that nominee will be confirmed. It means Thune has enough votes to confirm, and thus, Collins gets a pass to look independent.
But it was great to see this in the article: Troy Jackson wants “a lasting peace in which Israelis and Palestinians can live in security and dignity.” #mepolitics
Amy Fried@asfried.bsky.social · 18h ago1.Maine rabbis write letter criticizing Israel, calling for peace and justice for Palestinians and Israelis and opposing using the word genocide. 2. The Portland Press Herald only covers the part on not using “genocide.” 3. Outrage erupts from people who just read headline or article. #mepolitics
1.Maine rabbis write letter criticizing Israel, calling for peace and justice for Palestinians and Israelis and opposing using the word genocide. 2. The Portland Press Herald only covers the part on not using “genocide.” 3. Outrage erupts from people who just read headline or article. #mepolitics
“If we reduce the complaints, we reduce the discrimination”
Task & Purpose@taskandpurpose.com · 23h agoArmy ends anonymous reporting for harassment complaints trib.al/oQU93m2
Don't look now, but the world has now installed 3TW of solar. Took 10 years to get from 100GW to 1TW. Less than 3 years to get to 2TW. Less than 2 years to get to 3TW. Analysts expect *9TW* by 2036.
The World Crossed a Major Solar Milestone. No One Noticed
The next phase of the boom may reveal a shift in who is gaining access to the technology.
bloomberg.com
Two states > One state.
Ron Skolnik@ronskolnik.bsky.social · 20h agoEl-Sayed: "I believe in equal rights to peace, dignity, and self-determination, for Palestinians and Jewish Israelis alike... If that’s 2 states, I’m for it. If it’s 1 state, I’m for that. If it’s this 'land for all' model, ... or whatever they decide." www.newyorker.com/news/the-new...
This New York Times article, which ran a week before Christmas last year, didn’t get the attention it deserved. It detailed Trump and Epstein's predatory behavior toward women – “a game of ego and dominance” in which “female bodies were currency.” Here’s a gift link and a thread. 1/6🧵
‘Don’s Best Friend’: How Epstein and Trump Bonded Over the Pursuit of Women (Gift Article)
The president has tried to minimize their friendship, but documents and interviews reveal an intense and complicated relationship. Chasing women was a game of ego and dominance. Female bodies were cur...
nytimes.com
Depicting Jewish people with horns is a centuries-old, dehumanizing, antisemitic trope. Democratic Gov nominee Phil Weiser is outspoken about his mother’s birth in a Nazi concentration camp, his family members killed in the Holocaust, and the threat posed by antisemitism today.
This is wild. Sam Collins (Susan's brother) says Troy Jackson and Susan Collins are "both from a family of loggers." His family owns a lumberyard and Jackson worked in the woods to harvest trees. Both are not from a family of loggers! #mepolitics www.pressherald.com/2026/08/02/a...
In Aroostook County, Senate contest of locals doubles as test of Trump’s base
Sen. Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are both from a far northern county where working-class voters have become more solidly Republican in the past decade.
pressherald.com
#mepolitics Republicans are definitely using paid canvassers. To be fair, I also looked for paid Dem canvassing jobs in ME. Field organizers get paid $19/hr for 55 hrs/wk, but there are no paid canvassing jobs. We do it b/c we're passionate about the cause. www.canvassamerica.com/safapplyme?f...
SAF ME Application — Canvass America
Become a Canvasser - Starting at $24/hr We are looking to expand our team to reach more voters and broaden our impact. Be on the frontline in changing minds and giving voters information about conser...
canvassamerica.com
This forecast has ME-2 as a Tossup, This makes engagement — contacting voters, writing letters to the editor and submitting opeds, talking to people you know, and donating — very important. #mepolitics fiftyplusone.news/forecast/house
fiftyplusone.news
FYI: Blanche rescinded the ORDER establishing the slush fund, not the underlying “settlement.” The settlement says any changes must be agreed to by ALL parties, not just Todd. This “rescission” isn’t worth the paper it’s printed on.
It requires expertise to be able to say, “I do not know the answer to that question, and that is becauae thus far scholarly consensus is that we do not have the knowledge needed at this time to answer that question.” Sometimes “I don’t know” is a far more rigorous answer than people might think.
The Contentious Paul LePage Turns Timid Is Paul LePage in witness protection? Not that into the campaign? Thinks it’s stupid to be open and accessible? What a contrast to Matt Dunlap. #mepolitics open.substack.com/pub/amyfried...
The Contentious Paul LePage Turns Timid
Dunlap speaks up while LePage ducks the press.
open.substack.com
People need to get it through their heads that whatever they *might* have “actually” meant a couple of years ago, when leftists say “AIPAC” or “Israel” NOW they often mean (((Jewish))) just as when MAGA says “DEI” they mean “Black.” If you can’t get that I don’t know what the else to say.
RFK Jr. lies, claiming “there were ICUs that were empty during the height” of the pandemic, even in NY. In reality, there were trucks brought in to store cadavers and hospitals were swamped.
Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3d agoRFK Jr: Trump wanted to end lockdowns. In Fauci's diary, he talks about how the president was calling him trying to get him to reopen the country BASH: The lockdowns were down by governors K: They cited Fauci B: Govs were hearing from hospitals that their ICUs were overrun K: That's not true
We’re seeing the same tendency from right wingers focused on public policy in Maine and they can’t speak convincingly to anyone outside of their bubble. #mepolitics
New from me: Some data points for a MAGA melt-down: *Hardcore Trump loyalists declining *Right wing influencers losing viewers *The Heritage Foundation is rife with dissent and incompetence, with conservatives worried about the pipeline of talent 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/is-maga-me...
Is MAGA Melting Down?
Signs and wonders, portents and data points
donmoynihan.substack.com
RFK told Dana Bash that Lyme disease “almost certainly” came from gain of function research. Which is utterly false. www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdi...
Lyme Disease Did Not Come From a Secret Military Lab, Contrary to FDA Chief's Claim
Bacterium that causes it circulated long before the lab opened, decades of evidence show
medpagetoday.com
Maine Republicans and the Maine Wire are spending their time putting out content that appeal to MAGA Republicans rather than the mass of Maine voters. And now they're getting the trillionaire from away to support them trashing Troy. #mepolitics
Maine hates outsiders meddling in its politics, absolutely hates it. So Troy taking it to Elon Musk for him dumping money in to help Susan Collins is right on and very effective.
Troy Jackson@troyjackson207.bsky.social · 3d agoMy response to Elon Musk.
