Ashwin Kumar
@ashwin-kumar.bsky.social
Professor of Social Policy, Policy Evaluation Research Unit, @ManMetUni.bsky.social. Economist: incomes, poverty, the labour market, tax/benefit modelling, microsimulation. Photography: space, stillness and form
This week's post: What is wrong with Boring Budgets? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/11/what... Tax increases could be avoided yet the deficit still reduced if spending was cut. This is as realistic as Jeremy Hunt’s cuts to employees’ NI contributions in the dying days of the Tory government.
What is wrong with Boring Budgets?
For many of those who are paid to write stuff about the budget and have word counts to meet, I guess the answer is obvious. Nevertheless I...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
There’ve been a lot of really strong pieces about the US #midterms but I think this one is probably the most enlightening for me (a middle aged non-gamer who isn’t on X). Not least in how it traces everything back to Gamergate which I still feel is underappreciated. www.404media.co/republicans-...
Republicans Learn X Is the Echo Chamber
It turns out you can’t post Malfoids and Anakin when diesel is $6 a gallon and expect America to vote for you.
404media.co
This week's post: What is wrong with Boring Budgets? mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/11/what... The lack of recognition by a media obsessed by fiscal responsibility that slower growth in real personal incomes is part of the government’s strategy to bring down the deficit looks very odd.
What is wrong with Boring Budgets?
For many of those who are paid to write stuff about the budget and have word counts to meet, I guess the answer is obvious. Nevertheless I...
mainlymacro.blogspot.com
The Today programme did the same this morning (just after 8.30 am) when it offered no challenge to the use by @tomtugendhat.bsky.social of the bogus £10 billion figure: he should know better and so should they
Jonathan Potts@uccellolirico.bsky.social · last wk."The reportimg method is to simply quote any factual claim any politician makes, with no scrutiny of whether any basis at all for them" Alas, a standard for these times. What's the point of going after Meta et al if supposedly evidence-curious main news outlets are recycling propaganda like this?
I don’t understand why there is so much hand-wringing about whether or not to apologise for our nation’s involvement in the slave trade. We were involved; it was wrong; an apology is simply an acknowledgement of the undeniable; it has no adverse consequence and is cost-free. Get on with it.
the fiscal and economic impacts of "earned settlement". My updated analysis here. As far as I know the basic data/evidence here is no longer disputed by the Home Office, who have mostly stopped citing their bogus £10 billion figure. docs.google.com/document/d/1...
Fiscal and economic impacts of earned settlement v2.docx
Fiscal and economic impacts of earned settlement reforms One central issue in the debate over the Government’s proposed “earned settlement” reforms is their fiscal and wider economic impact. The Home ...
docs.google.com
Satire. Definitely no truth in here... newsthump.com/2026/10/13/b...
Britain considers cooperating with Europeans to solve all the problems caused by refusing to cooperate with Europeans
Britain is considering closer cooperation with the European Union to address the trade barriers, bureaucracy and other problems created by not cooperating with Europe, after Andy Burnham told MPs t…
newsthump.com
This is quite extraordinary. I don't think I have heard a more coherent, articulate and accurate deconstruction & demolition of Nigel Farage's ReformUK, Tory & Restore policy than this. In under 85 seconds! @rafaelbehr.bsky.social is on here folks and worth a follow.
Dear tv and radio producers. Thankyou for the invitation. But, no, I do not want to appear on your show to defend the idea that I am English, after 50 years of living and working here, because the increasingly feral right want to turn this into a "debate" and you cannot see how you're being played
Ah, forecasting that focuses on the expected value, not the expected volatility! I guess their long-term forecast was average CPI growth of 2%, plus an additional 1.5%/1.75% real earnings growth, so of course the average cost will be zero...
Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · last mo.this is absolutely nuts: "the UK’s pension “triple lock” was costed at just £50mn when politicians first settled on a measure that has gone on to cost 300 times as much, according to the top adviser on economic strategy at the time" www.ft.com/content/efdc...
Important point: yes, some of the troglodytes have emerged from their cave, but we don't have to engage with them on their terms
Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · last mo.There is a rather wider minority for abolishing the Monarchy (about 1 in 5 to 1 in 4) than for the controversy of whether only white people can be English (1 in 10). It is weird the media classes are so rarely across how niche this 'controversy' is - about 1/4 Reform voters, but few others
Re the debate on the cliff edge where tax-free childcare is lost at £100k leading to people keeping their income below this amount, it’s obvious that such cliff edges are bad as it skews decisions about work – no-one should be worse off if their earnings increase. /1 🧵
My experience is early years settings assign a key worker to each child, track progress against the Early Years Foundation Stage framework & discuss with parents how they're supporting their development. Restricting access for lower income families seems a recipe for exacerbating future inequalities
Rebecca Montacute@beckymontacute.bsky.social · last mo.What if the second non worker is studying/looking for work/a carer? And that aside - it's early education as well as childcare, imo there's evidence we should have a core offer of at least 20 hours for early edu (and requirements that nurseries can't prioritise those on longer hours alongside)
My teacher brother has just informed me that his primary school kids now refer to anything shit or old fashioned as "Brexit". Which has made my morning.
Der Spiegel writing in 2018 about how Man City got round the UEFA Financial Fair Play charges www.spiegel.de/internationa...
Financial Fair Play, Manchester City and PSG: Pact with the Sheikhs
Five years ago, UEFA introduced Financial Fair Play, a set of rules designed to level the economic playing field in European football. But during his tenure as UEFA general secretary, Gianni Infantino...
spiegel.de
Been wondering whether Man City paid the right tax when giving money to Mancini via an off-book 'consultancy' contract? Here's Dan Neidle's investigation into that issue
Dan Neidle@danneidle.bsky.social · last mo.Manchester City cheated Premier League rules, the Commission found. Did it also cheat HMRC? We've examined the decision and leaked Mancini documents. We think City likely failed to pay £12m in tax. There should be a criminal investigation. Thread:
The future is Birkenhead. View over the Mersey from Labour conference
Reads perfectly nicely but doesn't actually say anything... ... reminds me of listening to a Keir Starmer speech...
John Rentoul@rentouljohn.bsky.social · 2mo agoAlan Lockey, speech writer for Keir Starmer, on the rise of expressive politics futureoftheleft.substack.com/p/what-is-po...
Note that the ONS are now assuming that people take their contractual entitlement, which might well be a bit of an overestimate
Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 2mo agoWhy was the ONS overestimating the hours worked in the economy? Survey-based estimates had previously implied that the average employee took three fewer days of annual leave than the legal minimum, which seems implausible.
How to trade the robot apocalypse So far the answer seems to be call bullshit and/or lean into the nihilism Me, 300 free clicks x - as.ft.com/r/fd415159-4...
How should investors position for the robot apocalypse?
The end of human existence might be bad for financial markets
as.ft.com
Yes, Foden should have gone, but Fernandes should have at least been booked. First, he steps on Foden's foot. Then, with no possibility of getting the ball, he stabs he foot into Foden. Arguably, two yellow card offences but at least one #MUNMCI
If you haven’t read the dedication of Gloria Steinem’s autobiography My Life on the Road, it is really worth taking a second today.
"This is also why falling net migration has not depoliticised immigration... Public concern is being driven less by the statistic than by a broader sense of disorder, asylum politics, visible demographic change and distrust of govt." ✍️ Jonathan Portes on migration 🔗 https://ow.ly/7MmE50ZFXPq
Race and space: the rise and fall of “net migration” - UK in a changing Europe
Jonathan Portes asks how useful a measure immigration statistics are and argues that they have served to legitimate politics of racialised grievance.
ow.ly
Some thoughts from me on the latest AI security testing farrago substack.com/@ciaranmarti...
Control. Ownership. Perspective.
Three lessons from the latest AI cyber security testing problems
substack.com
I’m a little bit lost for words when trying to sum up the spirit and fortitude of the Hillsborough families But after the privilege of watching them make history again today - I’ve tried to sum it all up here…
Under a golden Sky the Hillsborough heroes made history again
A seismic day unfolded in parliament after years of tireless campaigning
liverpoolecho.co.uk
I’ve been thinking about the many recent press stories highlighting how misogyny in medicine affects women. The worst encounter I ever had was after my third baby. I made an appointment to discuss being sterilised as a long-term contraceptive. 1/