Y'days Post: Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/long... If you can get past the hand wringing, the OBR's long term fiscal projections contain useful information that most politicians pretend isn't there.

"Journalists have become very zealous at asking Labour politicians how they will pay for any additional spending, but rather less adept at doing the same for promises of lower taxes." @sjwrenlewis.bsky.social open.substack.com/pub/sjwrenle...

Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts

If you can get past the hand wringing, the OBR's long term fiscal projections contain useful information that most politicians pretend isn't there.

open.substack.com

New Post: Long term fiscal projections are a good antidote to politicians talking about tax cuts mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/08/long... If you can get past the hand wringing, the OBR's long term fiscal projections contain useful information that most politicians pretend isn't there.

I reserve the right: A) to laugh at the Tory party because they're awful and the Tories failing is funny B) to be deeply alarmed about the collapse of the centre right and rise of the far right We can't have every election be a game of Russian roulette with our democracy

Danielle Blake SUPPORTER OF ARSENAL FC, CHAMPIONS@abradacabla.bsky.social · 4d ago

On both sides of the pond you get responses like this to people correctly saying “hey given that liberals can’t win every election forever, we really need a non-extremist right of centre party here” because they can’t see past the ends of their noses.

🧵On @thenewsagents.co.uk yesterday, school closures and the lab leak theory were offered as two examples of legitimate questions that were hard to ask. Both have in fact been asked constantly since 2020. But here's a thread on why I think they were wrong and dangerous on school closures 1/12

This is a genuinely exciting announcement about Burnham's intention for public service reform There are some potentially massive changes to the way that services are funded and operate A few things that jumped out at me 👇 www.gov.uk/government/p...

Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement (HTML)

gov.uk

This week's post: The relationship between capital, plutocracy and populism mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Business as a whole is worse off under right wing populism than neoliberalism, but some may do better through influence or corruption.

This is the Mediterranean lifestyle conservatives want.

Three firefighters killed on Crete and in mainland Greece as Europe battles wildfires

Repeated heatwaves and strong winds alarm experts, who warn blazes are becoming harder to quell

theguardian.com

Ketan Joshi@ketanjoshi.co · 6d ago

It is putting it mildly to describe these people as a death cult.

I wrote here about Goodhart's efforts to whitewash his and his fellow-travellers voyage to Powellite racism and beyond... bylinetimes.com/2025/08/19/r...

Robert Jenrick and the Conservative Party's Embrace of 'Blood and Soil' Nationalism

The British right is adopting an increasingly extreme form of ethnic identity politics, while failing to explain what the rest of us are supposed to be so worried about, argues Jonathan Portes

bylinetimes.com

open.substack.com/pub/mariosri... Tldr; I don't think the 1930s/2010-2020s are exceptional, I think it's 1945-1985 that's weird - that's the period where Authoritarian voters *aren't* voting for Authoritarian parties - which I'd describe as the Surprisingly Long Suppression of the Radical Right.

My Theory of the (Re)Growth of the Radical Right

The Radical Right - aka Extreme Right/Hard Right/Far Right - is a party family that has been studied pretty continuously since 1945[1].

open.substack.com

Y'days post: The relationship between capital, plutocracy and populism mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Right wing populism is generally very bad for the economy and business. Yet populist governments are almost always supported by an oligarchy or plutocracy.

R+1 on corruption is just too funny in a morbid, nothing matters, this country is on a slow trajectory to shithole kind of way

Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · last wk.

"Who's better on..." 🔵Women's Rights: D +18 🔵Environment: D +17 🔵Democratic Norms: D +10 🔵Cost of Living: D +4 🟣Political Violence: Even 🟣Wars/Terrorism: Even 🔴AI: R +1 🔴Corruption: R +1 🔴Guns Control: R +3 🔴Immigration: R +5 🔴Crime: R +14 Ipsos / July 26, 2026

"Another way of putting this is that it was liberal social democracy that limited the ability of wealth to influence politics and also limited the influence of right wing populism on the political right, and when neoliberalism swept social democracy to one side it allowed both to emerge."

Simon Wren-Lewis@sjwrenlewis.bsky.social · last wk.

New post: The relationship between capital, plutocracy and populism mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Right wing populism is generally very bad for the economy and business. Yet populist governments are almost always supported by an oligarchy or plutocracy.

New post: The relationship between capital, plutocracy and populism mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... Right wing populism is generally very bad for the economy and business. Yet populist governments are almost always supported by an oligarchy or plutocracy.

Said this before, will again. Badenoch is the most dangerous figure in British politics. She's not as extreme as Farage or Lowe, but her impact is more pernicious. She actively prevents the British centre-right from adopting moderate positions, and thereby facilitates the radicalisation process.

I don't remember Burnham having this relaxed communication manner in his 2010 or 2015 Labour leadership contests. Which shows he can learn - & if he can learn this he can learn other things too. This alone elevates him above his recent predecessors.

Anna H@athenepallas.bsky.social · 2w ago

I'm not remotely the audience for TikTok, but if Burnham is learning lessons from probably the most gifted political communicator around right now, good for him: www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Zucman and Krugman on wealth taxes. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/talking-ag...

Talking Again With Gabriel Zucman

Oligarchy, wealth taxes, and more

paulkrugman.substack.com

This week' post: The political barriers to radical tax reform mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... The rich have always been more likely to vote than the poor, but that gap has been increasing in recent decades.

The political barriers to radical tax reform

Want more public services, help with the cost of living, a simplified tax system and a reduction in the public sector deficit? It sounds l...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

The BBC and other broadcasters have swallowed the right's small boat invasion narrative hook, line and sinker. They have no interest in reporting a fall in crossings - especially as the weather cannot be blamed. Normal service will be resumed if numbers start rising again.

Jon Featonby@jonfeatonby.bsky.social · 2w ago

No arrivals by small boats for the last 10 days now. As of yesterday, 12,469 people had arrived so far this year across the Channel, down over 11,000 (47%) on the same time last year. More than 10% down on 2023 as well, which was when crossings were, by comparison to other years, lower.

Y'days post: The political barriers to radical tax reform mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... With pensioners much more likely to vote than those aged around 40, it is perhaps not surprising that working people pay more tax and the triple lock survives.

The political barriers to radical tax reform

Want more public services, help with the cost of living, a simplified tax system and a reduction in the public sector deficit? It sounds l...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

Don't get me started!

Sean Mulcahy@zeneasy.co.uk · 2w ago

One for @timbale.bsky.social ? BBC Breakfast 06:33. “That’s the statistical situation but what’s the reality.” Then does vox pop.

New post: The political barriers to radical tax reform mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/the-... A look at the radical plan for universal services and a single tax on income from Prosperity 2030, and why radical tax reform and simplification is often so politically difficult.

The political barriers to radical tax reform

Want more public services, help with the cost of living, a simplified tax system and a reduction in the public sector deficit? It sounds l...

mainlymacro.blogspot.com

One of Truss's worst legacies is to give the lobby an obsession with small moves in gilt prices.

Will Dunn@willdunn.bsky.social · 2w ago

FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE ***THURSDAY***

Its a sad ending for Britain's first woman Chancellor (as Theresa May once said - hopefully not the last) as Rachel Reeves returns to the backbenches. But she bears a lot of the responsibility for the failures of the Starmer government. The biggest mistakes were before the 2024 election

holy shit judit polgar is going to be president of hungary www.theguardian.com/world/2026/j...

Strategic move by Hungary’s Magyar as he picks chess prodigy for president

Judit Polgár to discuss role with prime minister, who says Hungary needs someone the whole nation is proud of

theguardian.com

An interesting thread on what seems like a real shame: Timpson was an effective, unusual and principled CEO – and a real expert committed to prisons reform. His appointment was one of the most interesting innovations the Starmer era.

Cassia Rowland@cassiarowland.bsky.social · 2w ago

The day’s first casualty: James Timpson resigns as prisons minister. This is a big surprise! Timpson had a long history as a prisons reformer before entering government and seen as one of Starmer’s more innovative & exciting appointments. He’s also delivered a big change programme in gov. So: why?

This week's post: How Right Wing Populism came easily to the Conservative Party mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/how-... Among many who comment on politics in the UK, right wing populism is seen as Farage, Reform and those parties and politicians to the right of both. This is a big mistake.

Agree with this. It is one reason why the press is currently happy to stick the knife into Farage.

This week's post: How Right Wing Populism came easily to the Conservative Party mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2026/07/how-... Among many who comment on politics in the UK, right wing populism is seen as Farage, Reform and those parties and politicians to the right of both. This is a big mistake.

Here is a good substack by Grahame Broadbelt that expands on my earlier post on the bond market substack.com/home/post/p-...

Why nobody explains what the bond markets are

They seem to be central to our political economy. But are they, really?

substack.com