Opinion Haver

@asinmarx.bsky.social

he/him Queer socialist. Abolish and prosecute ICE. ACAB. Sign up for the Primary School newsletter if you like seeing progressives running for office. primaries.substack.com

Eyeballing it, I believe the congressional districts broke down as follows El-Sayed, 20%+ 3, 6 El-Sayed, 0-10% 1, 4, 7 Stevens, 0-10% 5, 10 (just barely), 11 (just barely), 12 Stevens, 10-20% 2, 8, 9, 13

Polling error last night There were 6 polls in the last week. The two most recent were an internal and from a fake Republican pollster (Red Eagle Politics). The remaining 4 polls were Abdul +14, +8, +16, and +10. That's an average of +12, which suggests a polling error of 11%.

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I believe the Wayne County website is just mislabeled, and we're actually almost done in Wayne County, with only the small suburbs of Northville, Rockwood, and Wayne left to count.

The margin sits at +3732 for McKinney in Detroit (left) now that it's fully reported. He's currently ahead in suburban Wayne +1322 (right). Given that, it would be difficult to imagine Thanedar winning unless what's out is purely absentees.

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Invoking policy proposals is such a telling move when both candidates involved have years of voting records, and a major story of the campaign is how Lamont keeps vetoing bills that Elliott sends him. Clearly they disagree on something!

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I sort of conceptualize the US military as a lumbering Colossus, slowly enveloping the earth, which could never be troubled by something as insignificant as running out of bombs. But idk, could we at some point?

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 7d ago

Tonight's strikes by the U.S. on Iran "will be larger in scope than previous tit-for-tat attacks carried out by the U.S. in recent weeks, covering more targets in a broader area, according to a U.S. official."-WSJ

A major issue with the establishment's efforts fending off individual progressives like El-Sayed, Hong, Chevalier, Kiros, Gonzales, Flanagan, etc, is that we're well past the point where it's clear that young voters just Do This now, and who do you think is going to make up the electorate later?

Opinion Haver@asinmarx.bsky.social · 7d ago

Connecticut's governor's primary features centrist incumbent Ned Lamont, and cash-strapped non-DSA progressive Josh Elliot, who hasn't even run a TV ad yet. the latest poll finds the race Overall: Lamont 48-27 (Lamont +21). 18-49: Elliott 46-30 (Lamont -16) 50+: Lamont 54-21 (Lamont +33)

Connecticut's governor's primary features centrist incumbent Ned Lamont, and cash-strapped non-DSA progressive Josh Elliot, who hasn't even run a TV ad yet. the latest poll finds the race Overall: Lamont 48-27 (Lamont +21). 18-49: Elliott 46-30 (Lamont -16) 50+: Lamont 54-21 (Lamont +33)