💥 The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal By Ritikaa Khanna @rourkeobrien.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social @atheendar.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social https://www.nber.org/papers/w35470 Economic growth in the 2010s no longer translated into broad gains in life expectancy

The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

nber.org

New working paper from Ritikaa Khanna, @rourkeobrien.bsky.social, @astokespop.bsky.social, @atheendar.bsky.social, & me We apply a new lens to the great (non-Covid) debate of US mortality studies: What's up w the 2010s? It emphasizes that US longevity worsened against a background of increasing $$

The U.S. Mortality Crisis as a Preston Curve Reversal

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

nber.org

New paper out in @jamanetworkopen.com In 2022, there were 905,159 more deaths in the US than we'd expect if Americans had death rates of other high-income countries. That difference has nearly tripled since 1999. COVID played a role but gap was widening well before 2020. tinyurl.com/y4ecvfrs

Causes of Excess Deaths in the US Compared With Other High-Income Countries

This cross-sectional study examines excess mortality in the US compared with other high-income countries from 1999 to 2022 and investigates causes of death accounting for the disparity.

tinyurl.com

This paper is incredible. The question, the data, the methods. Congrats to @jacob-bor.bsky.social and team! Can't wait to teach it in the methods class next year!

AEA Journals@aeajournals.bsky.social · 4mo ago

In developing countries, where class sizes are large and educational bottlenecks are severe, the gains from starting school at an older age outweigh the costs, say researchers at San Diego State University, @pepnetwork.bsky.social, and @bostonu.bsky.social. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...

A great write-up on brand-new research I was involved in. We used a really different approach from the ones that we & many others have used previously to estimate how many Covid deaths there *really* were--almost 20% more than known. Our results broadly accord w others but add new demographic detail

Mike Stobbe@mikestobbe.bsky.social · 5mo ago

The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...

The COVID-19 pandemic’s early death toll was much higher than the official U.S. count, according to a new study that spotlights dramatic disparities in the uncounted deaths. apnews.com/article/covi...

More than 150,000 uncounted COVID-19 deaths occurred early in the pandemic, a study finds

A new study says the early U.S. COVID-19 death toll is much higher than official counts, and that there were disparities in which deaths were missing from those tallies.

apnews.com

19% more deaths from Covid in the US than counted thru 2021 www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Applying machine learning to identify unrecognized COVID-19 deaths recorded as other causes of death in the United States

A machine learning approach suggests that COVID-19 deaths were undercounted unevenly across sociodemographic groups in 2020–2021.

science.org

Preston’s death was first labeled an overdose. The autopsy found no drugs. Likely an asthma attack amid LA’s wildfires. Our recent analysis suggests 440 excess deaths—far beyond the official 31. We’re undercounting climate’s toll. @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

jamanetwork.com

Fran Smith@fransmith.bsky.social · 11mo ago

While we retreat on climate policy… @astokespop.bsky.social @chjreportinghealth.bsky.social centerforhealthjournalism.org/our-work/ins...

I also recommend this great piece in the @us.theconversation.com by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social & colleagues walking through some of their great work to counter this myth of "overcounting" coming out of previous news cycle. theconversation.com/covid-19-dea...

COVID-19 deaths in the US continue to be undercounted, research shows, despite claims of ‘overcounts’

Taking into consideration the number of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 compared with pre-pandemic years is critical to getting an accurate accounting of the pandemic’s real toll.

theconversation.com

Persistent minimizing of the COVID death toll hits me especially hard in the #demography feels. To be clear: ➡️ Over one million Americans died of COVID-19. ➡️ Official COVID deaths were likely undercounted, not overcounted. jenndowd.substack.com/p/how-many-p...

How many people died of COVID?

We likely undercounted, not overcounted COVID deaths

jenndowd.substack.com

As a mortality researcher, I haven’t generally paid a lot of attention to people my own age (elder Millennial here). That’s, unfortunately, changing. (With @astokespop.bsky.social and Jacob Bor)

Millennials Are Dying at an Alarming Rate. We Have a Few Ideas as to Why.

America is not a good place to be an early adult.

slate.com

New study 🚨 out in @jama.com! We find that California wildfires🔥in January may have contributed 440 excess deaths in Los Angeles County. This estimate significantly exceeds the 30 direct fatalities linked to these events jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... @pophel.bsky.social @helsinki.fi

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

jamanetwork.com

Study: 30 direct fatalities from the L.A. wildfires, but 440 deaths from January 5 to February 1, 2025 attributable to the wildfires--likely reflecting "a combination of factors, including increased exposure to poor air quality and health care delays and interruptions..." 🛟 😷 health policy

Excess Deaths Attributable to the Los Angeles Wildfires From January 5 to February 1, 2025

This study aims to estimate the number of excess deaths attributable to the Los Angeles wildfires using an interrupted time series design.

jamanetwork.com

An estimated 440 excess deaths were attributed to the January 2025 wildfires in Los Angeles County, underscoring indirect health effects and the need for improved mortality tracking. ja.ma/4oFM3af #MedSky

NEW PAPER: "Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019" in @jruralhealth.bsky.social w/Associates Irma Elo & Samuel Preston @eugeniopaglino.bsky.social K Hempstead @astokespop.bsky.social doi.org/10.1111/jrh.... pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

Evolution of the US nonmetropolitan mortality disadvantage by sex, state, and year, 1999‐2019

Purpose To examine disparities in nonmetropolitan and metropolitan mortality by state and sex from 1999 to 2019. Methods We calculate age-standardized mortality rates for nonmetropolitan and metro...

doi.org

Eugenio Paglino@eugeniopaglino.bsky.social · last yr.

New (core demography) paper on US metropolitan and nonmetropolitan mortality out in the Journal of Rural Health. Stay tuned for a thread 🧵summarising the key findings! #Demography

The U.S. once saw steady declines in mortality—but progress stalled around 2010. New research: In 2023 alone, there were 525,505 more deaths than expected had pre-2010 trends continued. 91% were among adults without a BA degree. Most were due to CVD and diabetes. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Diverging Mortality Trends by Educational Attainment in the US

This cross-sectional study examines trends in US mortality rates by sex and educational attainment before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

jamanetwork.com

Thanks to The Oklahoman (www.oklahoman.com) for running my opinions on the new budget and impacts on Alzheimer's research (bit.ly/4mZXrg7) and public health progress for all of us. #PublicHealth #EndAlzheimers #Epidemiology #ScienceHomecoming

For 40 years, Americans have lived shorter lives than people in other rich countries. For 10 years, that's been rapidly getting worse. New research: in 2022-2023, there were 1.5 million "missing Americans," who died--but wouldn't have, if America didn't have such uniquely high death rates.

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

jamanetwork.com

New study with @jacob-bor.bsky.social @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues estimates that US saw 705,331 excess deaths in 2023—a number in line w/ rising pre-pandemic trend. Over 1.5 million deaths could’ve been averted in 2022–23 if US mortality matched peer nations. 🧵 (1/5) tinyurl.com/569pr9ty

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

tinyurl.com

Excess deaths in the US vs other high-income countries. Coming down relative to prior US data but still the outlier jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Excess US Deaths Before, During, and After the COVID-19 Pandemic

This cohort study examines trends in excess deaths in the US before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

jamanetwork.com

The biggest project I've worked on for the last chunk of years was just published. It asks, how big are US Black-white lifespan differences? This might seem like a narrow question. I hope to convince you by the end that there are answers you didn't anticipate. And I hope some of them will move you.

A neat paper by @wrigleyfield.bsky.social @astokespop.bsky.social and team looks into this post 2010 period, showing that death rates from many different conditions increased relative to previous trends. More evidence of generalized #populationhealth stressors. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023

This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.

jamanetwork.com

Excess mortality rates of U.S. Americans age 25-44 (relative to 1999-2010 baseline) by cause of death from @wrigleyfield.bsky.social and co-authors from new article here: jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

1/ How should public health think about new GLP-1 drugs like Ozempic? Do pharmaceutical solutions undermine public health prevention efforts? In @milbankfund.bsky.social, Neil Mehta & I consider what new anti-obesity drugs might mean for population health. 🔗 www.milbank.org/quarterly/op...

New study with @wrigleyfield.bsky.social & colleagues finds that excess deaths among young U.S. adults have surged since 2011, accelerating during the pandemic and remaining high in 2023. Our research shows that this crisis extends far beyond drug overdoses. 🧵 (1/6) jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Mortality Trends Among Early Adults in the United States, 1999-2023

This cross-sectional study examines trends in mortality rates among adults aged 25 to 44 years across the pre–COVID-19 pandemic, pandemic, and postpandemic periods.

jamanetwork.com

U.S. Mortality trends in the young, ages 25-44 years jamanetwork.com/journals/jam... Drug overdoses are the leading cause of excess mortality. There were substantial numbers of Covid fatalities in this age group during the peak pandemic

New today: Death rates for Americans aged 25-44 have been rising since 2010. Their mortality is now 70% higher than it would be had pre-2011 mortality declines continued. w Rafeya Raquib, Katie Berry, Keeley Morris, & @astokespop.bsky.social 1/ jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

#MELODEM is accepting applications--by 1/27/25--to participate in this year's Annual In-Person Meeting! The meeting features: Jun 23-25: presentations w extensive discussion Jun 25-27: hands-on data workshop, involving a subset of participants See deets & apply: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Application for 2025 Annual MELODEM Meeting

We are delighted to announce that we are accepting applications to participate in MELODEM's Annual In-Person Meeting which will be held in St. James Hotel in Red Wing, MN from Monday, June 23rd to Fri...

docs.google.com

The first report from our collaboration with the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is now out! @astokespop.bsky.social We look at cause-specific excess mortality in the US and reflect on the most likely explanations for the gap between excess and COVID-19 mortality. www.soa.org/resources/re...

The Department of Demography at the University of California, Berkeley, invites applications for a Postdoctoral Scholar position in the research group of Prof. Ayesha Mahmud. For more info, visit: aprecruit.berkeley.edu/JPF04716

Postdoctoral Scholar Employee - Demography

University of California, Berkeley is hiring. Apply now!

aprecruit.berkeley.edu