Aurélien Allard
@aurelienallard.bsky.social
Philosopher and Social Psychologist. Assistant professor at Nantes University. Studying justice, morality, replicability and open science. Personal website: https://aurelienallard.netlify.app/
New blog post in which we discover the secret to immortality: accounting errors. www.the100.ci/2026/08/08/m...
My Immortal Time Bias
Preamble: This shortie is my attempt to come up with an example that makes the problem underlying immortal time bias as obvious as possible. In Japan, people who reach the age of 100 are handed a co...
the100.ci
Something I learnt recently: Amazon stores all the highlights you make in Kindle here read.amazon.com/notebook which you can copy into an LLM to turn into structured notes. That way I can spend more time doing something I like (reading) and less time on something I don’t (making notes)
New Jingle assessment: we show that the "Perspective Taking Protocol" has very poor reliability and near-zero convergent validity with other nominal measures of emotional and spatial perspective taking, empathy, and theory of mind. w/ @malte.the100.ci
PsyArXivBot@psyarxivbot.bsky.social · last wk.The RFT Perspective Taking Protocol has very poor reliability and convergent validity with other measures of perspective taking, empathy, and theory of mind: A jingle assessment: https://osf.io/jb6c4
OUT TODAY! 🥳 A straightforward, non-technical guide to thinking like a quantitative social scientist. Written for students, journalists, and curious citizens. A lot of thought and heart went into this. I genuinely hope folks enjoy it!
🚨New Science Advances🚨 Untrustworthy sources on Facebook and Instagram in 2020: Concentrated exposure but no attitudinal effects www.science.org/doi/10.1126/... -Exposure very low but highly concentrated -Reducing exposure by ~70% for months had no measurable effects *even among frequent consumers*
🚨 New today in Nature 🦟 After decades of debate, we show that climate change has probably made malaria worse in sub-Saharan Africa, causing about 1 extra case per 1,000 children. But: malaria eradication efforts have pulled the other direction 200 times harder. 🔓 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
🔔🔔 Russian polls have shown ~75% support for the war in Ukraine since February 2022, essentially flat. New working paper with Kirill Chmel and @nikitasavin.bsky.social shows that number is stable partly because it stopped measuring what people actually think. 🧵 ssrn.com/abstract=711...
Just an enormous difference in Russian support for the war when comparing direct question estimates with experiments from list experiments. Also, peep those CIs! sensitivity bias has to be HUGE (which it apparently is in this case) to be detected with Direct - List
Georgy Tarasenko@tarasenkogeorgy.bsky.social · 2w agoEvery wave after that splits. Direct support holds at ~75%. Indirect support drops to 44–58%. The gap runs from 16 to 30 percentage points.
Imagine that in pre-publication peer review, the reliability of a 3-reviewer composite is .70. The journal accepts the top 10% of papers according to average review score. What is the reliability of the original reviewers in the subset of published papers? (Answer in alt text)
h/t @scientificdiscovery.dev. Really starting to think that meta-analyses should be knocked off their pedestal. They’d be great if science operated differently, alas. We gotta assess evidence in a manner that works in the imperfect world in which we actually live.
Sobering: initial trials with huge effect, large follow-up trial showing no evidence for an effect. But practice is already locked in and criticism is defused by pointing to random effects meta-analyses which are necessarily dominated by the initial trials. polypharmacy.substack.com/p/we-should-...
We should stop running clinical trials that cannot change practice
The case of prazosin for PTSD nightmares and the PACT trial
polypharmacy.substack.com
New paper out now 🥳 When psychologists discuss generalisability, they often refer to vague notions of representativeness. We provide an accessible intro to the total survey error framework as a tool to reason about this more rigorously. w @taymalsalti.bsky.social @ruben.the100.ci >
out today! www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...
Chaz Firestone@chazfirestone.bsky.social · last mo.You press ‘send’ on a high-stakes email but hesitate when lifting your finger. You make a chess move but linger on the piece before letting go. Familiar? In @pnas.org, Hanbei Zhou @ruizhegoh.bsky.social @ianbphillips.bsky.social & I show that response *duration* tracks confidence! shorturl.at/A9NVe
We are hiring an assistant professor in Metascience! Join our lovely department of Human-Technology Interaction, with a very active Metascience group, at Eindhoven University of Technology. Apply here before August 14, or share the vacancy in your network! www.tue.nl/en/working-a...
Assistant Professor in Metascience
Personal type: Scientific staff
tue.nl
In celebration of this book that I will 100% buy, I just want to remind people that "updating my prior with data" is exactly the same process as "assigning different weights to the likelihood function (data) based on my prior" 😜
Richard McElreath 🐈⬛@rmcelreath.bsky.social · last mo.adding website link for everyone to enjoy avehtari.github.io/Bayesian-Wor...
Evolutionary biologists finally admit that high intelligence does not require making friends. A new octopus study completely dismantles the idea that big brains only evolve for social networking, proving that solitary sea creatures get incredibly smart just by navigating complicated neighborhoods.
How the Rule-Breaking Octopus Is Rewriting the Evolution of Intelligence - Nautilus | Science
How the Rule-Breaking Octopus Is Rewriting the Evolution of Intelligence: Cephalopods are loners, but they’re also intelligent
nautil.us
Looks like a cool analysis, but note that it excludes preprints that were never published. So this last sentence in the abstract amounts to ‘conditioning on preprints accepted by the scientific community, preprints are good enough to be accepted by the scientific community’.
Hao Yin@haoyin.bsky.social · 4w agoNature News covered our preprint on LLM analysis of Preprint-to-Publication transition 😆👇 Think preprints are unreliable? Analysis of 70,000 studies might change your mind www.nature.com/articles/d41... Kudos to @rrust.bsky.social for leading this project👍 www.biorxiv.org/content/10.6...
J'ai écouté ce matin les 3 ép. de Projet Utopia avec le camarade @floriancova.bsky.social sur le thème "les philosophes racontent-ils n'importe quoi ?" J'ai adoré l'ép.2, qui revient sur la spécificité du rapport de "La France" à la philo, en particulier sur la façon de la gérer au bac. 👇
After llms, a lot of times when I m checking someone else code and I see "implementations" from scratch, for example PS matching with caliper using crazy loops instead of MatchIt from @noahgreifer.bsky.social . It makes the work so much harder, because the new func probably has some flaws #rstats
It has happened a few times to me too. It's insane that LLM have such a strong tendency to implement statistical algorithms from scratch, instead of just using a known package! I always ask them to use already existing package if possible.
Thiago@csthiago.bsky.social · last mo.After llms, a lot of times when I m checking someone else code and I see "implementations" from scratch, for example PS matching with caliper using crazy loops instead of MatchIt from @noahgreifer.bsky.social . It makes the work so much harder, because the new func probably has some flaws #rstats
The good news is that someone else now gets to join this amazing team! If you're keen to help develop RegCheck, I'd strongly encourage you to apply. Working with @jamiecummins.bsky.social and @malte.the100.ci is reason enough to apply! jobs.unibe.ch/job-vacancie...
PhD Student/ Postdoc Position in Meta-Science - Universität Bern
Universität Bern is looking for PhD Student/ Postdoc Position in Meta-Science
jobs.unibe.ch
Very excited to announce that I’ll be joining @zpid.bsky.social in Trier, Germany as a tenure-track Jun.-Prof. in Psychological Metascience in November! 🤸🏻♀️✨
Another example of how useful {geomtextpath} can be, imho. This is from the item category probability plot in my {easyRasch2} package. Most psychometric papers within the factor analytic tradition seem to disregard evaluating how the response scale works, which I find difficult to understand.
This interview with Marjorie Green is a hoot! www.thebeliever.net/an-interview...
Oscar@oscarw.bsky.social · 2mo agoJust came across this remarkable interview with Marjorie Grene at age 94: www.thebeliever.net/an-interview... Two of my favourite bits, when Grene is asked about Rorty and about Lakatos: Rorty is just witty, but doesn't have a philosophy and Grene is quick to say that she did not kill Lakatos!
An update on our log-like specifications paper! We’ve updated our recommendations and added new commands in Stata and R for one of our recommended alternatives. 1/ osf.io/preprints/me...
OSF
osf.io
Jack Fitzgerald@jackfitzgerald.bsky.social · 5mo agoNew preprint! We reanalyze 46 papers that use log-like specifications (ln(Z+1), inverse hyperbolic sine etc). We find widespread non-robustness, and we show through theory + simulation how these models drive spurious significance. 1/ doi.org/10.31222/osf...
Two papers by Max Planck, the legendary Nobel laureate in physics, were retracted by Springer Nature in 2011, likely due to an algorithm flagging the papers for self-plagiarism and copyright infringement. Read on for how stupid it all is. 🧪
Why have papers by one of history’s most famous physicists been retracted?
Springer Nature has removed two studies by Max Planck. A bot may be to blame
science.org
New interactive blog! "Why Adjusted Regression Coefficients Are Less Descriptive Than They Look" rpsychologist.com/descriptive-...
