interesting to me that as the administration treats democratic-voting states like conquered or occupied territories, you don’t have pundits demanding the president respect “half the country”

tony romm@tonyromm.bsky.social · 2w ago

NEW: In a stunning admission, the Trump administration admitted in court documents that it canceled billions in energy grants to states "based solely" on politics -- and whether that state was represented by Democrats and backed Harris in 2024. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/24/b...

Okay, folks: The big El Niño update is now out on Weather West! This sure looks like it's going to be a dramatic year from a global climate perspective, and there are major implications for extreme events (across California, the U.S. West, & well beyond).

Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts - Weather West

June 11, 2026 - Daniel Swain - A quick refresher: What is El Niño and how can it affect global weather patterns? El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a semi-regular recurring cycle that transfers vast amounts of heat and momentum from the tropical Pacific to the global atmosphere. It is triggered every 3–7 years when the #

weatherwest.com

Good morning

As horrifying as this campaign of premeditated murder is, what might be even more disturbing is the utter indifference of Congress, the public and our allies to such a shocking and unapologetic obliteration of the many laws and norms against targeting civilians. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/31/w...

The U.S. Boat Strike Campaign Has Now Killed Over 200 People

nytimes.com

The City of Ottawa posted the raw speed data from before and after Doug Ford banned speed cameras and the effect is so obvious it's not even necessary put a line marking when that happened. This chart shows the percentage of drivers going 15km/h or more over the posted limit.

Ok now this paper looks amazing. By @jbenmenachem.com and coauthors, forthcoming in Sociological Methods and Research.

Chapter 5: @martinarvidsson.bsky.social, Hedström, Jarvis & @marckeuschnigg.bsky.social on the intersection of Analytical Sociology and Computational Social Science. Computational tools are most powerful when used to identify and test mechanisms, not just describe or predict aggregate patterns.

Taha Yasseri@tahayasseri.bsky.social · 6mo ago

In Chapter 4, Ralph Schroeder of @oii.ox.ac.uk argues that CSS needs a stronger theory, not just better data. He proposes an AI-driven model of media agenda-setting that links media visibility, public attention, and political change. A big step toward cumulative media theory.

The choice is impeachment and removal or calamity for the United States. I don't see how anybody watching Trump's speech in Davos can draw any other conclusion. He's a senile madman.

New in @bjpols.bsky.social! Dave Hope, @lhaffert.bsky.social and I show that low taxes on the rich have a hidden cost: They undermine public support for broad-based taxation. 🖋️ cup.org/45lgPwN

This paper shows welfare programs alleviating health shock can reduce crime. It makes case poverty scholars have long made about the negative costs of poverty to society. The societal costs of crime need to be factored into benefit-cost analyses of poverty reduction programs.

Paul Bruno@paul-bruno.com · 7mo ago

Breaking Bad: How Health Shocks Prompt Crime www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=... "Welfare programs that alleviate the economic repercussions of health shocks are effective at mitigating the ensuing negative externality on society."

New paper out with @kchihaya.bsky.social and @eduardotapia.bsky.social. We show how a tendency to move near kin can preserve patterns of segregation, using a combination of discrete choice models and micro-simulations applied to the case of immigrants and their descendants living in Stockholm.

Demography - the flagship journal of PAA@readdemography.bsky.social · 8mo ago

“Kin Propinquity, Residential Mobility & Segregation”: @benjarvis.bsky.social, @kchihaya.bsky.social & @eduardotapia.bsky.social examine ancestry & segregation; they find ancestry sorting effects are 3X greater than kin propinquity effects. @iasliu.bsky.social read.dukeupress.edu/demography/a...

it is *critically* important now for Dems to create a climate in which there is a threat of punishment once power is switched. The more we can create a threatening shadow of the future, the greater the probability of preventing harm in the present

This important paper shows a precipitous drop in girls' achievement in recent years, closing a third of the gap with boys. Covid doesn't seem to be the smoking gun, but tiktok may be

Sociological Science@sociologicalsci.bsky.social · 10mo ago

NEW: Mood, "Equalization through Deterioration: The Shrinking Gender Gap in Swedish School Grades" sociologicalscience.com/articles-v12...

New article w/ @jenjirayahirun.bsky.social: Exogamous 2nd gen immigrants in Sweden live further from parents than do endogamous immigrants, but closer than natives. But in terms of residential choices, exogamous immigrants are least likely to move near parents.

🚨🎓 We’re looking for new PhD students! The area of specialization is open, but successful applicants should demonstrate a clear interest in themes that align with ongoing research at @iasliu.bsky.social 📅 Deadline: 31.08.2025 💼 Fully funded positions How to apply 👉 liu.se/en/work-at-l...

PhD student in Analytical Sociology

liu.se

✨ The IAS Seminar Series returns for the Fall 2025 semester with a stellar lineup of speakers and thought-provoking talks. Open to all! #AcademicSky #Sociology #CSS

@iasliu.bsky.social is advertising another postdoc position as part of the Swedish Excellence Center in Computational Social Science. For recently graduated or soon-to-graduate PhD students, the setting is really conducive to getting high quality research done. Apply by September 30th!

Postdoc in Computational Social Science

liu.se

The Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research has a call for grant proposals for US-based researchers with Swedish citizenship or a degree from Sweden who want to move to a Swedish university. SEK 15 million over 5 years. Aimed at science and tech, so maybe a CSS researcher?

Amazing. Right out in the open: "universities are free to do research as long as they're sympathetic to the administration." I want to personally play this clip in the face of every fucking clown who spent the last several years pretending that the left is the "real" threat to free speech.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Linda McMahon: "Universities should continue to be able to do research as long as they're abiding by the laws and in sync, I think, with the administration and what the administration is trying to accomplish."

“Seventy-eight percent of ocean microplastics are synthetic tire rubber, according to a report by the Pew Charitable Trust.” From the article below (a complement to the one the quoted text is about, not the same piece)

Road Hazard: Evidence Mounts on Toxic Pollution from Tires

Researchers are only beginning to uncover the toxic cocktail of chemicals, microplastics, and heavy metals hidden in car and truck tires. But experts say these tire emissions are a significant source ...

e360.yale.edu

Serene Doomer@serenaribena.bsky.social · last yr.

Congratulations - we've ruined everything! 'Plastic pollution is harming slugs, beetles, snails & earthworms... Researchers found more than 1/10 bugs had fragments of plastic in their stomachs, causing harmful chemicals to be passed on to larger animals that feed on them, like birds & hedgehogs'

👇🎯 Been saying this for years. But it's actually worse than this. They think we are less worthy of actual citizenship & openly suggest that our votes shouldn't count, & they pay absolutely no consequences for this in the National Conversation™️: bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Jeff Lazarus@jlazarus.bsky.social · last yr.

Conservatives kvetch all the time about how liberals hold rural areas in distain but no one in this country hates anyone more than Republicans hate cities.

It's been a couple wks since the various reports of Trump's incursions at the LoC. In that time, I've been backing up the OCR text of Chronicling America, just in case I documented my process on my blog. Just sharing in case others want/need to back up Chron Am for their own peace of mind

Ryan Cordell@ryancordell.org · last yr.

Some sad confirmation from @bcgl.bsky.social while I was at UW last week—the National Digital Newspaper Program—which builds Chronicling America—has been shut down Historical newspapers are probably the archival material most used by the general public—for genealogy, local history—it’s such a loss

Analytical sociologists look around nervously.

Replication crisis not as bad as feared? “Observed replication rates could have been predicted by issues with replication power alone…. predicted replication rate is almost identical to observed replication rates in experimental economics (60% vs. 61%) and experimental social science (54% vs. 57%).”

Stephen Wild@stephenjwild.bsky.social · last yr.

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

A major escalation of the ongoing weaponization of the federal government against institutions that are deemed insufficiently obedient. This isn't about Harvard, specifically: This is an authoritarian regime weaponizing the state to force civil society institutions into submission.

Must-read @poppublicsphere.bsky.social for folks working on populism: "Populist Radical Right Parties are most successful among classes facing a deterioration of their economic position within the social hierarchy. The magnitude of the association is substantial." www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I’m old enough to remember the IRS “scandal” from the Obama administration that the GOP fed to a thirsty media, parlaying it into reams of tedious coverage and hackneyed “news analysis”. Every accusation is a confession for these malign mungers.

I.R.S. Is Said to Be Considering Whether to Revoke Harvard’s Tax-Exempt Status

The move would be a major escalation of the Trump administration’s attempts to choke off federal money and support for the leading research university.

nytimes.com

There are serious concerns about the data validity of the income measurement of the EU-SILC in Hungary after 2017. The numbers reek of manipulation to make the Orban government appear better at fighting poverty than it actually is. This is serious, as it undermines trust in the whole data set.

Lili Vargha@lilivargha.bsky.social · last yr.

Anomalies & data problems are found in the Hungarian EU SILC income data from around year 2017. It is very likely that the data was manipulated to decrease the poverty rate. Annamaria Tatrai and Andras Gabos conducted a very thorough investigation of the issue: www.valaszonline.hu/2025/04/01/e...

20 Republicans in the Senate and a handful in the house can end this right now.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · last yr.

Murphy: "The vast majority of Republicans, their number one priority is Trump seizing power, and the Trump family and the MAGA universe holding power forever ... with the exception of maybe 20 Republicans in the Senate, the GOP inside Congress is done with democracy."

I've already had two federal grants terminated and face a 33% pay cut due to future terminations. It's painful, but not as painful as the conversations I'm having every day with brilliant trainees in graduate school and postdoctoral positions who see little future for themselves in US science.

Prasad Jallepalli, MD, PhD@prasad.bsky.social · last yr.

www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o... Really important piece to share widely. Too many Americans don’t know how severe a threat this Administration poses to our scientific infrastructure, global leadership, and health security